Which NFL Stars Are the Biggest Threats to Hold out This Summer?

NFL teams have the franchise tag, which enables them to keep a player bound to them in perpetuity for extra seasons. NFL teams have also negotiated successfully with the NFLPA to get four-year rookie contracts in every round, including a fifth-year option for first-round picks. This is in a league where the average career doesn't make it more than four or five years.

Very few players are actually traded for draft picks, and restricted free agency is an oft-ignored market because teams are reticent to lose picks. Especially picks in the first few rounds. 

The only leverage a star player actually has is holding out. In that sense, it's only the fact that there are very few players with the ability to actually make or break a team's season that keeps us from seeing more holdouts. NFL teams are great at pressing the idea that most players are fungible commodities. Sometimes holdouts are successful -- Chris Johnson got a fortune from the Titans. Sometimes holdouts are not quite so successful -- JaMarcus Russell's development was stunted when he didn't get to camp with Oakland. 

With that in mind, let's go through some potential holdout situations. In each one, we'll look at how important the player is to his team, what the player's current contract situation is, and if they're actively threatening a holdout. Remember: a player must play six games in a season, per the CBA, to gain an accrued season of service. For younger players, that comes into play. 

Justin Houston, Kansas City Chiefs

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Justin Houston, Kansas City Chiefs

Contract Status: Franchise tagged. 
Importance to Team: Very high. Not only is Houston a force, he's also coming off a historic 22-sack season. 
Is he holding out?: Yes. Houston has already skipped voluntary workouts and was very unhappy with the Chiefs decision to franchise tag him. 

Houston has every reason to dig in his heels. He's coming off a historic season, has no contract years to honor, and deserves to be paid like one of the best in the business.

The Chiefs have been slow to the draw, basically staying out of conversations with Houston until just before the draft.

In theory, the Chiefs and Houston could both benefit if the linebacker stays away from the fold until camp wraps, letting 2014 first-round pick Dee Ford get some extra looks. However, Kansas City is barely under the cap as is, and has to sign their entire rookie class to contracts. They could do this in other ways -- perhaps by cutting ties with safety Eric Berry, quarterback Chase Daniel, or restructuring one of their big contracts. But the easiest way to reduce the figure would be to lock up Houston and make that $13.1 million cap charge go away. 

Prediction: The Chiefs and Houston come to terms on a deal a little north of Robert Quinn's six-year, $65.5 million dollar contract, and they get it done before preseason games start. 

Eric Weddle, San Diego Chargers

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Eric Weddle, San Diego Chargers

Contract Status: Weddle is in the final year of a five-year, $40 million contract signed in the 2011 offseason. He'll make $7.5 million. 
Importance to Team: High. Weddle isn't as important as Philip Rivers, and he's getting older, but he's still the closest thing the Chargers have to a star defensive player.
Is he holding out?: We're not sure yet. But Weddle has said that he feels disrespected by the contract. and has skipped offseason workouts. 

This feels more like a problem borne of another problem. Until the Chargers have solidified things with Philip Rivers, they won't really know if Weddle is a necessary piece for them. It's one thing to pay a 30-year-old Pro Bowl safety a big new deal if a team knows they're gunning for the postseason. But without Rivers as a long-term focal point, San Diego is suddenly staring at a rebuild. 

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“All I can say at this point regarding an extension is I’m willing to listen to anything,” [Rivers] said in regard to his contract status. “I’m also willing to play it out. I’m just fired up to be the Chargers QB in 2015.”

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This feels like it could go either way, as Rivers' public comments have been rather measured. 

Prediction: The Chargers, unsure of what to believe with Rivers, give Weddle a quickie extension with some more guaranteed money and an easy out after 2015 or 2016. 

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

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Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

Contract Status: Peterson has three years left on a six-year, $86.72 million dollar contract signed in 2012. However, only $2.4 million of that is guaranteed.
Importance to Team: High. Nobody should be sure of exactly how Peterson will play coming off a year in courtrooms, but the last time he missed extended time, Peterson nearly broke the NFL rushing record.
Is he holding out?: We're not sure yet. There's been enough drama between the Vikings and Peterson this offseason to start a Livejournal community. Peterson's agent, Ben Dogra, had to be physically separated from a Vikings official at the NFL Combine. Peterson has been trying to engineer a trade all offseason. With the Vikings asking for the moon, the stars and a first-round pick, that was unsuccessful. Dogra wants more guaranteed money from the Vikings. Vikings beat writer Matt Vensel believes that Peterson won't hold out. 

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Peterson is still on the team after the draft, which over the past two months we have been saying was the most likely scenario. Now the question becomes whether Peterson will hold out. I wouldn’t be surprised if he skips the three-day mandatory minicamp in June to send a message. But I doubt any holdout would last deep into training camp. Peterson cares about his on-field legacy and records, and he knows he can’t afford to willingly sit out another season.

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It's a nice idea to keep your stars happy, but Peterson has no real leverage in this fight. Not only is he already under contract, but he just dragged the Vikings through a six-month PR campaign on essentially every organizational front.

I could see the Vikings acceding to try to keep him happy and throwing him a couple of pity million, but running backs over 30 don't get big new contracts, even if they are Adrian Peterson. 

Prediction: Peterson holds out for a few days, doesn't get anywhere, then sheepishly rejoins the team in training camp.

Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers

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Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers

Contract Status: Brown has three years left on a five-year, $41.7 million extension he signed in 2012. 
Importance to Team: High. While the Steelers have done a good job accumulating other talented receivers, Brown has developed into a true No. 1 guy. 
Is he holding out?: Probably not. Rumors flew that Brown was unhappy with his contract. However, Brown did show up to voluntary workouts eventually. 

Brown does have the kind of track record that makes you think he's outperformed his contract, as his average is only 11th among all wideouts according to Over The Cap. He's pretty clearly a top-10 NFL wideout at this point. 

But he's not far enough off to really have a leg to stand on in an extended holdout -- he just doesn't have enough to gain. 

Prediction: No holdout.

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears

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Matt Forte

Contract Status: Forte has just one year left on his contract, at a $9.2 million cap number.
Importance to Team: Maybe less high than you'd think? Forte is still a very stellar back, but if the Bears go into a rebuilding phase, there's no guarantee Forte will still be playing this way well into his 30s. 
Is he holding out?: Well, no. Forte told a Chicago radio station he has no plans to hold out, though he also acknowledged he's not happy with his contract situation. 

 “Like I told Ryan when we talked about it. I told him I wouldn’t hold any grudges or anything. Everybody says you could hold out and use it as leverage. I’m not that type of dude to do that at this point. … If they want to give me a contract extension and have me return as a Chicago Bear and play my entire career here, they can do that. If they don’t, then they won’t. It’s as simple as that. I’m not going to hold out.”

This hold out won't happen, but it's one that makes a lot of sense on the surface. The Bears should consider themselves lucky that Forte isn't trying to squeeze them. 

Prediction: No holdout. 

Andrew Whitworth, Cincinnati Bengals

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Andrew Whitworth, Cincinnati Bengals

Contract Status: Whitworth has one year remaining at $5 million.
Importance to Team: Looking less and less important every day. The Bengals spent their two top draft picks on tackles Cedric Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher, and they probably won't need more than a year to crack the starting lineup. 
Is he holding out?: Depends on how much you want to read into his reactions. Whitworth was clearly unhappy with owner Mike Brown in public comments. Then, Whitworth let out a Tweet that was probably supposed to be private, before backtracking and making his account private. 

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"Mike Brown told me I'm done here," the tweet from Whitworth's account read. "Said I can play this year and go home. So I told him I want a raise or I'll sit my ass at home this …"

Whitworth said the social-media message originated from his wife, and that it was intended to be sent as a private message to one of Whitworth's teammates.

"Anybody that knows her knows she's sarcastic," Whitworth said. "She was just trying to be funny with the teammate."

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How much do we read into this? It's clear that he's unhappy with Brown. It's also clear that he has no real recourse other than sitting out. I think it's more likely that he'd retire than hold out, but it's hard to say based on the little cracks in the facade. 

Prediction: Whitworth gets a little bit of his money in the form of a bonus, then is not asked back after the 2015 season. 

Michael Bennett, Seattle Seahawks

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Michael Bennett, Seattle Seahawks

Contract Status: Bennett is one year into a four-year, $32 million contract he signed last offseason.
Importance to Team: Pretty damn important. Bennett isn't a true ace pass rusher, but his versatility between the tackles makes him a great chess piece, and he's clearly Seattle's best rusher.
Is he holding out?: Well, it's hard to really understand what has happened to Bennett this offseason. Clarence Hill of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram originally reported that Bennett wanted a new contract, as well as a trade to Atlanta. Everyone involved denied that. Bennett didn't report to voluntary workouts, and Bob Condotta reported that he's still looking for a new contract.

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Bennett said: “I can’t really say that, but I mean I don’t know anybody that is happy with the amount of money that they’re making. But at this point, I’m just trying to be a good Seahawk.”

It remains viewed as unlikely, though, that Bennett would get a new deal from the Seahawks, as the team has set a public stance of not renegotiating contracts that have more than a year remaining.

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I don't think Bennett has anything to lose by holding out, but at the end of the day, much like Antonio Brown, his contract is only a slight underpay. Over The Cap has Bennett's deal as the 14th-highest among 4-3 defensive ends. 

That said, he definitely would hold a lot of sway if he did hold out. 

Prediction: Bennett misses most of training camp, then ends his holdout. 

Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos

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Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos

Contract Status: After Thomas finished out his rookie deal, the team put the franchise tag on him before free agency opened. 
Importance to Team: High. Emmanuel Sanders is very good, and second-round pick Cody Lattimer should make an impact this season, but Thomas is still the straw that stirs the drink in Denver. And with Julius Thomas gone, they need (Demaryius) Thomas to take his share of the red-zone targets.
Is he holding out?: For this one, all we have is speculation. General manager John Elway has iterated his stance that Thomas is playing a zero-sum game with a holdout. 

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"To be dead honest with you, I see absolutely zero value with him being away from here — zero value for him," Elway said at the Broncos' pre-draft press conference. "There's no value for him not to be here with his teammates, so as far as negotiations and him and a new deal and what's going on, we'd like to get something done. But by him being away from here, there is zero value not only to us, but to him. To me it makes no sense."

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Thomas worked out on his own early in the offseason, but insisted that he'll make no big stink about playing under the tag this offseason.

Prediction: Thomas ultimately signs a five-year, $60 million contract with the Broncos as the sides settle near what inflation suggests a top-five receiver should get. 

Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys

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Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys

Contract Status: After Bryant finished out his rookie deal, the team put the franchise tag on him before free agency opened. 
Importance to Team: Paramount. Not only is Bryant arguably the best receiver in the NFL, the rest of Dallas' passing offense hasn't really elevated anywhere near his heights. Tight end Jason Witten is on the downswing of his career, and Terrance Williams didn't have the breakout year some were expecting. 
Is he holding out?: It's been almost eerily quiet on the Bryant front. Between changing up his representation and some drama about a Wal-Mart parking lot video that nobody should take seriously, there hasn't been much actual negotiation. This has led ESPN's Todd Archer to predict that Bryant plays out the year on the tag.

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They don't need added cap space to do a deal for Dez Bryant. He's already counting $12.823 million against the cap. If they get Bryant to sign a long-term deal you could see that number cut in half, but this isn't a deal that will happen in a week or a couple of weeks. The two sides haven't talked. Maybe it picks up by the July 15 deadline, but if I had to guess right now, I think Bryant plays the season on the franchise tag.

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The Cowboys insist they still want this to happen. And, for the long-term cap health of their team, they should be trying to make it happen. If only so they have another can to kick down the road with restructures later. I'll bet on this getting done. 

Prediction: After a short training camp holdout, Bryant signs an eight-year, $100 million contract.