Mayweather vs. Pacquiao: Projecting Likely Rematch Winner After 1st Fight Result

On Sunday morning, in the wake of the long-anticipated bout between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao, it hardly seemed likely that a potential rematch would be under discussion before the end of the week. Mayweather won a one-sided decision and did so in a manner that hardly thrilled the crowd. 

Rival promoter Oscar De La Hoya of Golden Boy Promotions was quick to make hay on the lack of enthusiasm that greeted the fight:

With no mandatory rematch clause in the contract, there seemed little reason to speculate about it after the first fight ended. To the three judges and any unbiased spectator, the verdict was clear. Mayweather had won an easy decision and not an exciting one. 

But big-time prizefighting is always part show business. And the Mayweather-Pacquiao bout generated far more money than any other fight in history.

If a blockbuster film breaks all the box-office records, the studio suits will be talking about a sequel no matter what the film critics have to say.  

And in truth, the seeds for rematch talk were planted almost the moment the fight ended. When Pacquiao told HBO's Max Kellerman that he thought he had actually won the fight in his post-fight interview, Kellerman and anyone with eyeballs reacted with disbelief.

But perhaps no fighter in history has had more devoted and loyal fans than the Filipino superstar. If enough of them can convince themselves that the judges robbed their hero, the second fight will sell itself.

Bullit Marquez/Associated Press

With the revelation that Pacquiao's shoulder was injured during the fight, the idea of a rematch gained even more momentum. Pacquiao revealed he had been fighting with an injured shoulder in the post-fight press conference that ESPN broadcast after the fight. On May 5, ESPN's Dan Rafael reported that Pacquiao would undergo surgery for a torn rotator cuff. 

With that announcement, the narrative for a rematch began to write itself. Regardless of how unexciting the first bout was, fans will be urged to buy the rematch because this time Pacquiao will be competing at 100 percent. 

And when ESPN's SportsCenter tweeted on the afternoon of May 5 that Mayweather had sent a text to Stephen A. Smith stating that he would be willing to give Pacquiao a rematch, Mayweather-Pacquiao II officially became a hot topic:

For Mayweather, a rematch makes sense as a business deal. In the post-fight press conference, he said he planned to vacate all of his belts at welterweight and junior middleweight and fight just once more. Pacquiao will be unavailable for a year, which will give Mayweather time to rest his own 38-year-old body. 

Even with the letdown following the first fight, Pacquiao probably remains the most lucrative opponent for Mayweather. 

Moreover, as Mayweather demonstrated in Las Vegas last Saturday, the Filipino great represents no significant challenge for him. 

A rematch is destined to look pretty much exactly like the first fight. While Pacquiao's shoulder might not have been 100 percent, almost no fighter, especially one in his late 30s, ever concludes a grueling training camp at 100 percent. 

Pacquiao's shoulder injury—whatever the extent of it—wasn't a major factor in how the bout played out. The decisive factor was that Pacquiao lacked the speed or footwork to cut off Mayweather. 

Pac-Man was consistently unable to even get into position to throw punches. He threw so many wild, aggressive punches that caught nothing but air that it's hardly a surprise if he tore an already-compromised rotator cuff. 

ESPN boxing guru Teddy Atlas appeared on the Mike & Mike radio show the morning of May 4 and discounted the idea that the shoulder was a factor in the outcome, even pointing out that Pacquiao managed to land some good right hooks on the rare occasions when he got into position to throw them. 

Showtime analyst Paul Malignaggi echoed the sentiment in a tweet and even went further, questioning whether Pacquiao's shoulder was even injured:

I'm certainly not prepared to go as far as Malignaggi and accuse Pacquiao of lying about his injury. I will note that I've seen a lot of fighters injure their shoulders, hands or arms over the years, and it is generally the type of injury that is obvious during the fight. 

In the case of Pacquiao vs. Mayweather, the shoulder injury wasn't obvious because Pacquiao was never able to get into position to use it. 

If a second event materializes, there will be a lot of hype around what will happen if Pacquiao is finally at 100 percent. Never mind that a 37-year-old prizefighter is never 100 percent, especially coming off surgery. 

Mayweather controlled the range so expertly in the first fight that it wouldn't have mattered if Pacquiao had fought with two completely healthy arms. It wouldn't have mattered if he'd fought with two healthy arms and two more cyborg arms attached by a mad scientist. 

Pacquiao was completely unable to establish an angle of attack aside from coming straight forward. That had nothing to do with his shoulder and everything to do with Mayweather's superior range, footwork and ring generalship. 

It will look absolutely no different if they fight again.