Kentucky Derby 2015 Winner: Analyzing American Pharoah's Triple Crown Bid

The Kentucky Derby has come and gone, and the buildup to the Preakness is already starting.

The hype around our Derby winner, American Pharoah, has been absolutely unreal, and for good reason. This year's crop of three-year-olds has been outstanding, and AP's effort to reign supreme was even more impressive.

Last year's Triple Crown hopeful California Chrome had a similar buzz around him after winning the Derby, and everyone jumped on the next-best-thing bandwagon, only to be let down once again in the Belmont Stakes. This year, though, we have a new challenger to racing's greatest achievement, and he brings his own unique set of skills, as well as an experienced and accomplished rider in Victor Espinoza.

His trainer, Bob Baffert, should have no problem in getting him into shape for an attempt to make history, and Zayat Stables (AP's ownership group) would like nothing more than to see him walk out of both Pimlico and Belmont Park as a winner.

How realistic a goal is that? Well, that's what I'm here to help you figure out.

So, with the Preakness coming up in less than two weeks, let's take a look at American Pharoah's keys to success, the biggest threats to his run at the Triple Crown and finally, his most likely stumbling point along the way.

Key to Success

What American Pharoah showed us in the Derby was nothing short of spectacular. The Pioneerof the Nile Colt showed impressive gate speed, and Espinoza got him placed comfortably just off the pace-setters, Dortmund and Firing Line.

Keeping this trend moving forward will be incredibly important for AP.

For argument's sake, let's assume the projected runners listed over at HorseRacingNation.com actually run. If they do, there is going to be plenty of early pace in this year's Preakness.

If Espinoza can keep Pharoah within striking distance and tucked in behind the leaders and keep him from having to kick four or five wide again, he should have plenty in reserve to make an inspired stretch run on May 16th.

For an example of what we'll need to see from American Pharoah, look no further than last year's running of the Preakness, in which California Chrome never let the leader, Pablo Del Monte, get more than three lengths ahead of him.

Chrome and Espinoza ran a perfect race, sitting just off the solid half-mile fractions (46.85 seconds) set by Pablo Del Monte and Ria Antonia.

That type of trip is exactly what Pharoah will need, as the field he's projected to face is significantly stronger than the one Chrome faced last year.

The tactical speed will also prove critical in the Belmont, where being forwardly placed is paramount.

I was at Belmont Park for Chrome's attempt to make history as the first Triple Crown winner since 1978 (Affirmed), and honestly, there wasn't a single point in that whole day where I felt like he had what was necessary for that race. Unfortunately, Chrome never truly got a chance to prove me wrong, and it shows in the video below.

He stumbled out of the gate but made up ground quickly and got himself settled in just behind Commissioner and General A Rod.

The problem in this race was that their position left no room for Chrome to maneuver when it came time to make a run at the lead. This led to him having to make a five-wide swing through the final turn.

In the Belmont Stakes, this absolutely can not happen. If Espinoza learns from his mistakes in last year's effort, then American Pharoah could have as good a shot as any recent Triple Crown threat.  

The intriguing thing about Chrome and his being suited for the ridiculous 1 1/2-mile distance they run in the Belmont is the fact that AP's grandsire, Empire Maker, logged a victory in the 2003 running of the Belmont Stakes.

With a Kentucky Derby effort that signals he's inherited much of Empire Maker's ability to succeed over extended distances, he makes for a very interesting Triple Crown threat.

Biggest Threats

In the Preakness, the biggest threats to AP's run at racing's Triple Crown will be familiar opponents, Dortmund and Firing Line.

With a slight cutback in distance, these two could potentially wire the field. The'll break right toward the front, and it's quite possible that we could see a similar showing to the one they put up in the Derby, where they'd run 1-2 around each turn.

If either is able to get out and control the pace, AP may not have a chance to run them down—think Oxbow in 2013 (see video below).

The Awesome Again colt controlled a ridiculously slow pace, leading the group through splits of 23.94 seconds, 24.66 seconds (1/2 mile), 24.66 seconds (3/4 mile), 24.88 seconds (one mile) and 19.40 seconds (stretch run), respectively.

Those fractions resulted in a finishing time of one minute, 57.54 seconds, nearly three seconds slower than California Chrome in 2014, and nearly two seconds slower than I'll Have Another back in 2012.

If either of Dortmund or Firing Line are allowed to do that this year, the'll play catch me if you can. Hint, no one will catch them.

Most Likely Stumbling Blocks

Consider this like a continuation of the "Biggest Threats" section, but if there's anywhere I'd predict American Pharoah to come up short, it's in the Belmont Stakes.

It's an arduous task for any horse to run three major races in a five-week period, but it's even more difficult when you consider the fact that the Triple Crown's final leg is run over a ridiculous 1 1/2 miles. 

GREGORY BULL/Associated Press

Sure, AP has bloodlines (again, Empire Maker) and a recent track record that suggests he's just itching for a little more distance. But let's be real, there are going to be several horses with very fresh legs just gunning for the opportunity to take down AP and take home their share of a very large purse.

If Pharoah is going to right the wrongs of his grandsire—Empire Maker helped rob us of a Triple Crown back in 2003 when he beat third-place finisher Funny Cide in the Belmont—he's going to have to beat a crop of horses that could include, again, Dortmund and Firing Line.

However, it's not those two I'm concerned about at Belmont; it's Frosted.

If Frosted runs in the Belmont, he's going to give AP one hell of a run for his money.

As noted below by NYRA's resident handicapper Andy Serling, Frosted was essentially the only horse to really "close" into those slow fractions set by Dortmund and Firing Line.

Frosted has run well in New York, logging two second-pace finishes, as well as two first-place finishes with one coming in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial (see video below).

The Tapit colt ran two and three wide through the opening turn and backstretch run. At the turn for home, Frosted kicked into the three path, en route to a 1 1/2-length victory over second-place finisher Tencendur.

What we saw out of Frosted in the Wood was downright impressive, but what we saw from him in the might have been even more impressive. If he chooses to run in the Belmont—which he might—then he and jockey Joel Rosario, who isn't light on major-race victories, may prove to be the final nail in the coffin holding American Pharoah's Triple Crown chances.

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