Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings for 2015

Now that the 2015 NFL draft is in the rearview mirror, it's time to figure out the fantasy football landscape.

Will the rookie receiver class come close to matching last year's historic crop? Can the first-round running backs live up to their draft status? Will Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston have a big fantasy year?

Let's index the top rookie performers as they should perform in the 2015 season and how they will rank against one another. These rankings will be based on expected playing time given the situation in which each rookie has landed.

They are also based on standard fantasy scoring—no points per reception or anything fancier than that.

Top 20 Overall

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Overall Rookie Rankings

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team
1	Amari Cooper	WR	Oakland Raiders
2	Melvin Gordon	RB	San Diego Chargers
3	T.J. Yeldon	RB	Jacksonville Jaguars
4	Tevin Coleman	RB	Atlanta Falcons
5	DeVante Parker	WR	Miami Dolphins
6	Kevin White	WR	Chicago Bears
7	Nelson Agholor	WR	Philadelphia Eagles
8	Ameer Abdullah	RB	Detroit Lions
9	Breshad Perriman	WR	Baltimore Ravens
10	Dorial Green-Beckham	WR	Tennessee Titans
11	Todd Gurley	RB	St. Louis Rams
12	Duke Johnson	RB	Cleveland Browns
13	Jaelen Strong	WR	Houston Texans
14	Marcus Mariota	QB	Tennessee Titans
15	Maxx Williams	TE	Baltimore Ravens
16	Jay Ajayi	RB	Miami Dolphins
17	Jameis Winston	QB	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
18	Phillip Dorsett	WR	Indianapolis Colts
19	Tyler Lockett	WR	Seattle Seahawks
20	Devin Smith	WR	New York Jets

 

You might note that quarterbacks are far down this list despite promising numbers. That's because there are too many good starting quarterbacks in the NFL to consider taking a rookie as anything but a late-round flier.

There is no need to stock three quarterbacks on any traditional fantasy team, after all.

Running backs get a bit of a bump given positional scarcity—there is a glut at receiver. The opposite is the case for tight ends, as rookies tend to be disappointments in the fantasy realm, and there are plenty of other options.

Now let's look at how each position stacks up. 

Quarterback

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1. Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans

Why is the No. 2 overall pick the No. 1 fantasy option at quarterback this season? Simple—he can run the ball.

One thing Marcus Mariota has over Jameis Winston is sheer athletic ability. Like some other big names who have entered the NFL in recent years, Mariota can do a ton of damage with his legs, and that is what will give him an edge in the fantasy realm.

Winston has the edge as a passer, and he has a better arsenal. But Mariota will bootleg his way to a better fantasy finish.

Prediction: 3,400 yards, 18 touchdowns, 11 interceptions; 70 rushing attempts, 400 yards, 2 touchdowns

2. Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

There is a lot of weight on the No. 1 overall pick's shoulders, but he'll have plenty of help as a rookie.

Jameis Winston heads to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with plenty of drama and fanfare, but he is in a far better situation than the predicaments many top picks found themselves in in years past. The biggest pluses come at the skill positions, where receivers Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins tower over their opponents (they're all 6'5").

The Bucs even got help along the offensive line by drafting tackle Donovan Smith and guard Ali Marpet. 

As fantasy football prospects go, however, Winston won't be more than a middling backup. Few rookies are ever worth a pick as a starter, and he doesn't have the rushing bonus we see from Mariota.

Prediction: 3,650 yards, 20 touchdowns, 15 interceptions; 20 rushing attempts, 100 yards, 1 touchdown

3. Bryce Petty, New York Jets

Why even talk about any other quarterbacks in this draft? Do any of them have a realistic shot at playing time?

Perhaps Bryce Petty does, but chances are Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick will handle all the snaps. You know what? Let's move on.

Prediction: Benchwarmer

Running Backs

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1. Melvin Gordon, San Diego Chargers

He might not have been the first running back off the board, but Melvin Gordon should have the most opportunity to score fantasy points out of the bunch.

The rookie out of Wisconsin enters a backfield that averaged 3.4 yards per carry last season, which was the second-worst mark in the league. That was with now-departed Ryan Mathews in the fold.

Gordon won't get much of a fight from Branden Oliver, Danny Woodhead or Donald Brown. They'll ensure he doesn't get overloaded with touches as a rookie, but Gordon should be the primary back given the disparity in talent.

Prediction: 250 carries, 1,100 yards, 7 touchdowns; 15 receptions, 125 yards, 1 touchdown

2. T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars needed a running back—at least if Toby Gerhart's injury-riddled 2014 campaign was any indication—and they addressed that with the second-round selection of T.J. Yeldon out of Alabama.

Yeldon becomes the latest Crimson Tide star to jump to the NFL, but will he be more like Eddie Lacy or Mark Ingram as a rookie?

The former won the Rookie of the Year Award for the Green Bay Packers in 2013, while the latter was a bitter disappointment for the New Orleans Saints in his first season in 2011.

Yeldon will probably fall somewhere in between, and he is liable to get a large share of the touches in that backfield.

Prediction: 200 carries, 875 yards, 6 touchdowns; 10 receptions, 90 yards, 1 touchdown

3. Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons

Poor Devonta Freeman.

The second-year runner had the backfield all to himself after Steven Jackson and Jacquizz Rodgers were shown the door. Then Tevin Coleman was drafted, and he mucked up the situation in Atlanta.

Could Coleman come in and swipe the starting gig? The former Hoosier thinks so, per Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com: "I'm going to come in there and I'm going to get a starting spot. That's what I'm going to do. Whoever is the starting back, they don't have to work. I'm coming in and working right away."

Coleman averaged 7.1 yards per carry for Indiana, and Freeman wasn't terribly inspiring as a rookie. With the only other competition coming from Antone Smith—who couldn't get on the field more often, despite his penchant for huge plays—we might have a bit of a surprise in the fantasy realm.

Prediction: 175 carries, 850 yards, 5 touchdowns; 20 receptions, 150 yards, 1 touchdown

4. Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions

Despite letting Reggie Bush go in free agency, the Detroit Lions didn't seem to have a huge need at running back.

Joique Bell seemed primed to shoulder the load, with pass-catching specialist Theo Riddick taking over on third down. While that doesn't seem like a dynamic duo, it would have been effective. Now Ameer Abdullah is in the mix.

The rookie out of Nebraska is already more talented than his new teammates. The question is whether he will be entrusted with a big workload over veteran options who can still be effective.

It might be a slow start for Abdullah, but he's capable of being the three-down back Reggie Bush could never be without getting hurt.

Prediction: 145 carries, 750 yards, 5 touchdowns; 25 receptions, 200 yards, 1 touchdown

5. Todd Gurley, St. Louis Rams

How dare we rank Todd Gurley so low. He's a top-10 player!

Actually, it has to do with an injury-related issue—the Georgia product tore his ACL late last season, which could mean a stint on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list to start the season.

He could miss a few weeks even if he avoids the PUP list, and the St. Louis Rams aren't about to endanger their No. 10 pick by giving him the ball 20-plus times a game when he does return.

Eventually, Gurley should prove worthy of that top-10 status. As a rookie, however, he might not pick up steam until the second half of the season, putting him behind the others here.

Prediction: 175 carries, 800 yards, 6 touchdowns; 15 receptions, 125 yards

6. Duke Johnson, Cleveland Browns

There is just enough uncertainty about Duke Johnson that he slides down the list a bit.

He is already the most talented back in Cleveland, but the Browns might want to take a measured approach with the former Hurricanes star. Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West did fine jobs as rookies last season, and both will likely head into the preseason ahead of Johnson on the depth chart.

Johnson should command more playing time as he opens the coaching staff's eyes, but who knows when that might happen?

Prediction: 140 carries, 600 yards, 4 touchdowns; 35 receptions, 300 yards, 2 touchdowns

7. Jay Ajayi, Miami Dolphins

This one depends on health—well, more so than the average situation. Injuries can strike any player at any time, after all.

Jay Ajayi fell precipitously in the draft because of a knee condition that could shorten his career. The Miami Dolphins finally took a chance on him in the fifth round, and they might have struck gold.

Ajayi is a second-round talent in a fifth-rounder's clothing. If he can stay healthy, he will challenge Lamar Miller for playing time right away. It's likely we will see Ajayi on the field in a timeshare this season.

Prediction: 125 carries, 500 yards, 4 touchdowns; 30 receptions, 250 yards, 1 touchdown

8. David Cobb, Tennessee Titans

Bishop Sankey should have the lead role in the Tennessee Titans backfield, but that doesn't mean he will be the workhorse.

Prediction: 100 carries, 450 yards, 2 touchdowns; 10 receptions, 75 yards

9. David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals

If the Arizona Cardinals stand pat the rest of the offseason, we very well could see David Johnson second on the depth chart.

The rookie out of Northern Iowa turned heads at the combine, prompting some to go back and look at his college tape. That film showed a great pass-catcher with work to be done elsewhere in his game.

At the very least, Johnson could find himself on the field on third downs as a pass-catcher come fall.

Prediction: 80 carries, 300 yards, 1 touchdown; 25 receptions, 300 yards, 2 touchdowns

10. Josh Robinson, Indianapolis Colts

There will be a few flashes of playing time for Josh Robinson in Indianapolis, where 31-year-old Frank Gore will start and late-blooming Dan Herron will come on in relief.

Prediction: 45 carries, 175 yards, 1 touchdown; 5 receptions, 75 yards

Wide Receivers

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1. Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders

It'd be easy to think Amari Cooper landed in a bad situation after the rookie season Derek Carr had.

Sure, he broke franchise rookie records for passing attempts and completion percentage last year, but let's be real—Carr wasn't very good relative to the rest of the NFL.

Part of the reason for that was a lack of weaponry, something Cooper was drafted to fix. Carr should benefit from Cooper's presence on the field, and Cooper should benefit from a huge number of passing attempts if the Oakland Raiders chuck the ball nearly as much as they did last season.

Prediction: 80 receptions, 1,050 yards, 9 touchdowns

2. DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins

The wide receiver depth chart is a bit murky in Miami right now, with Kenny Stills, Jarvis Landry, Greg Jennings and rookie DeVante Parker all in the mix for playing time. 

But Parker will be given every opportunity to win a starting job. If the comparisons to A.J. Green are anywhere close to accurate, the Dolphins won't be able to keep him off of the field.

It's similar to the situation Kevin White finds himself in—as you will note below—but while Parker could become the No. 1 receiver in Miami, White has no shot at filling that role.

Prediction: 60 receptions, 900 yards, 8 touchdowns

3. Kevin White, Chicago Bears

Kevin White was taken No. 7 overall to replace the departed Brandon Marshall. So he should come in and go for 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns, right?

Well, not so fast.

Marshall was a seasoned veteran, after all, and he had a longstanding rapport with quarterback Jay Cutler. White is a rookie trying to find his way with a new, mercurial quarterback.

Then there is the fact that Alshon Jeffery is the clear No. 1 receiver. Marquess Wilson and Eddie Royal will be seeing plenty of time on the field as well. 

White should have a fine rookie year, but it might not meet the expectations set by his top-10 status and the 2014 draft class' ridiculous season.

Prediction: 65 receptions, 925 yards, 7 touchdowns

4. Nelson Agholor, Philadelphia Eagles

One guy who won't have as much competition for playing time landed in a sweet situation all around.

Nelson Agholor will be playing wideout for the Philadelphia Eagles this fall, and, barring a disastrous preseason, he should be a Week 1 starter, with just Jordan Matthews ahead of him on the depth chart. 

It'll depend on who is under center—Sam Bradford is the man right now—but Agholor should have a sweet rookie season in head coach Chip Kelly's offense.

Prediction: 65 receptions, 850 yards, 6 touchdowns

5. Breshad Perriman, Baltimore Ravens

A similar situation awaits Breshad Perriman, who landed with a Baltimore Ravens squad bereft of wide receiver talent after Torrey Smith bolted to the San Francisco 49ers in the offseason.

Unlike in Philadelphia, Perriman will probably need to duke it out with Marlon Brown for an official starting gig in Baltimore. The offense isn't quite as powerful there either.

Even if he doesn't win the starting job right away, Perriman will be on the field plenty. He's also a deep threat playing with a big-armed quarterback, which could give us some fireworks this season.

Prediction: 50 receptions, 800 yards, 6 touchdowns

6. Dorial Green-Beckham, Tennessee Titans

This one is tough to peg.

Offense hasn't been a strong suit for Tennessee in recent years—well, neither has defense, for that matter—but a lack of talent has been the biggest culprit. With Marcus Mariota in town, the quarterback position is theoretically addressed.

As for the receiver, Dorial Green-Beckham is an immense talent surrounded by a bunch of question marks. If he keeps his head on straight, he could have a great start to his career.

Prediction: 55 receptions, 750 yards, 5 touchdowns

7. Phillip Dorsett, Indianapolis Colts

This was a bit of a curious pick, and it makes for a curious fantasy situation.

The Indianapolis Colts weren't hurting for wide receivers, but they took speedster Phillip Dorsett in the first round. The rookie out of Miami will have to fight for the No. 3 spot on the depth chart behind starters Andre Johnson and T.Y. Hilton—Donte Moncrief won't give it up easily.

Still, with Andrew Luck at the helm and speed to burn, Dorsett could have a huge game or two even if he is the fourth receiver out of the gate most games.

Prediction: 45 receptions, 700 yards, 4 touchdowns

8. Jaelen Strong, Houston Texans

The Houston Texans got a good value in Jaelen Strong. Some pegged him in the middle of the first round, but Houston was able to snag him in the third round.

After losing Andre Johnson, the Texans could use some help at the position. They probably won't put Strong across from new No. 1 DeAndre Hopkins to start the season—Cecil Shorts figures to have that role, if not Nate Washington—but Strong's ability will get him on the field enough down the line to have a fantasy impact.

Prediction: 40 receptions, 550 yards, 5 touchdowns

9. Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks

Another year, another undersized receiver for the Seattle Seahawks, who traded away three picks to move up for Tyler Lockett out of Kansas State.

The 5'10", 182-pound wideout will probably be utilized as a return man more than anything as a rookie, but he could force his way into a bigger role if he proves himself as a receiver early. The depth chart isn't terribly imposing at receiver in Seattle, after all.

Prediction: 40 receptions, 550 yards, 3 touchdowns

10. Devin Smith, New York Jets

The New York Jets put another weapon in Geno Smith's arsenal in the draft, this time drafting the deep threat they were missing.

Devin Smith can torch cornerbacks deep with the best of them. How much he sees the field as a rookie will determine how much value he'll have in the fantasy realm, however. 

Much like Dorsett, Devin Smith will have to fight to be the third receiver on the field behind Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. Unlike his Colts counterpart, however, he has Geno Smith for a quarterback.

Prediction: 35 receptions, 550 yards, 2 touchdowns

Tight Ends

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1. Maxx Williams, Baltimore Ravens

There was no better place for Maxx Williams to land than Baltimore this offseason.

The Ravens are all but gutted at the tight end position—depending on whether Dennis Pitta retires—which pretty much guarantees that Williams will be the starter. Even if Pitta returns, who knows how effective he would be coming back from his latest injury?

Rookie tight ends tend to be fantasy disappointments even when starting roles are defined. There are so many tight ends who will likely put up comparable or better numbers that it's rarely worth taking a shot on one.

Williams is a talented pass-catcher who could see a ton of targets, however. He might be worth a late-round flier.

Prediction: 45 receptions, 700 yards, 6 touchdowns

2. Clive Walford, Oakland Raiders

Tight end wasn't an overt need in Oakland like it was in Baltimore, but Mychal Rivera isn't scaring many defenses. That's why the Raiders drafted Clive Walford.

The rookie out of Miami will probably be the No. 2 behind Rivera to start the year, but he is going to challenge for playing time right away if he establishes himself as a seam threat at the next level.

Prediction: 35 receptions, 350 yards, 3 touchdowns

3. Tyler Kroft, Cincinnati Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals needed a replacement for Jermaine Gresham—though that doesn't mean he will start.

That job will belong to Tyler Eifert. Rookie Tyler Kroft, however, should be the No. 2 tight end right out of the gate. 

Granted, that spot on the depth chart hasn't done much for Eifert's fantasy stock in the past. But Kroft should see more than a handful of targets if he does win the backup role.

Prediction:  25 receptions, 200 yards, 1 touchdown

4. Devin Funchess, Carolina Panthers

Devin Funchess was a wide receiver in college. He'll be better suited as a tight end in the NFL.

Unfortunately for him, Greg Olsen stands atop the Carolina Panthers depth chart, and there is zero chance he will be relinquishing playing time to a raw rookie. Ed Dickson stands in the way.

Funchess was put here because there are so many quality receivers and so few tight ends in this draft class. He might wind up playing a bit of both.

Prediction: 15 receptions, 100 yards

5. Blake Bell, San Francisco 49ers

Vance McDonald has been a ball-dropping disappointment for the San Francisco 49ers, which could open up some playing time for rookie Blake Bell behind Vernon Davis. Chances are, however, we'll have to wait to see him on the field—if that ever happens for the fourth-round pick out of Oklahoma.

Prediction: 10 receptions, 100 yards

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