Stock Up, Stock Down on MLB's Top Projected Trade Targets, Week 5
The saying goes that April showers bring May flowers, but it's apparently not a theory that the baseball gods subscribe to.
More than a few of the top potential trade targets we looked at heading into May last week continue to deal with stagnant or dropping stock values as a possible trade chip for their current club to play.
Additionally, we've seen our first managerial change of the season, as Milwaukee replaced Ron Roenicke with the unproven Craig Counsell, a move that ESPN's Buster Olney reports signals that the Brewers are "open for business" on the trade front.
With that in mind, we've added a handful of Brewers to the mix. Noticeably absent from the list are outfielder Ryan Braun, catcher Jonathan Lucroy and pitcher Jimmy Nelson, three players I believe the Brew Crew will deem untouchable.
Such is how this list will change in size as the season progresses. As teams pull back into or fall out of contention, make changes in leadership and make veteran pieces available, the pool of clubs from which potential top trade targets will emerge will shuffle, forcing us to do the same.
That said, let's take a look at who, if anyone, has managed to raise their stock over the past week, which, for our purposes, ran from April 28 to May 4.
Stock Up: 3B Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers
1 of 12
Weekly Stats
26 PA, .280/.308/.320 (7-for-25), 2B, 2 RBI, BB, 4 K
Overview
Adrian Beltre's bat is finally emerging from its early-season slumber. The perennial All-Star has safely hit in eight of his last nine games (and in 11 of his last 13), though his power stroke remains elusive, with only three extra-base hits (two doubles and a home run) over that span.
Still, teams are sure to have significant interest in a veteran with a track record of success who has averaged 30 home runs and 53 extra-base hits a year since 2011, Beltre's first in Texas.
With top prospect Joey Gallo potentially ready to take over at the hot corner in 2016, and the Rangers looking like a non-contender once again due to a plethora of injuries, moving Beltre, who has limited no-trade protection, could be more feasible than ever before for the club.
2015 Stats
25 G, .218/.269/.337, 7 XBH (2 HR), 4 RBI, 6 BB, 10 K
Stock Even: SP Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds
2 of 12
Weekly Stats
2 GS, 1-1, 4.50 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 14 IP, 12 H, 1 BB, 8 K
Overview
After his shortest outing of the year, a six-inning appearance against Atlanta that saw him surrender five earned runs, Reds starter Johnny Cueto explained to The Cincinnati Enquirer's C. Trent Rosecrans his thoughts on the game.
"It was a bad outing, just pitches stayed up and they hit me well, I can't think I'm going to be perfect the whole time. I just had a bad outing, I don't want to think about anything else, it's just the way it is. You know one day it's going to happen and it happened."
While he's allowed four home runs over his last two starts after allowing only one over his first four, one rough outing isn't nearly enough to send Cueto's stock into a tailspin. The 29-year-old remains one of baseball's elite starters and could be the top arm available as the trade deadline nears, as he is in the final year of his current contract.
2015 Stats
6 GS, 2-3, 2.72 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 43 IP, 31 H, 6 BB, 40 K
Stock Even: CF Carlos Gomez, Milwaukee Brewers
3 of 12
Weekly Stats
3 G, .333/.333/.417 (4-for-12), 2B, 3 RBI, 2-for-2 SB
Overview
Carlos Gomez tops the list of potentially sought-after players in Milwaukee if, as many executives believe, the Brewers embark on something of a fire sale at the trade deadline, as indicated by CBS Sports' Jon Heyman.
There's good reason for that, of course, as Gomez is one of the premier talents around, capable of impacting the game with his bat, glove and speed. That he's signed to an incredibly team-friendly deal (due only $17 million through 2016) makes him all the more attractive—and valuable.
Fresh off a stay on the 15-day disabled list with a strained right hamstring, Gomez has shown no ill effects from the injury, successfully swiping two bases while providing his customary stellar defense at a premium position.
2015 Stats
47 PA, .261/.277/.435, 6 XBH (1 HR), 9 RBI, 2-for-3 SB
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Stock Down: OF Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies
4 of 12
Weekly Stats
5 G, .176/.263/.176 (3-for-17), 2 BB, 10 K
Overview
At this point, news of an injury would be a welcome explanation as to why Carlos Gonzalez is off to the worst start to a season of his eight-year career. All the evidence you need that he's pressing at the plate comes courtesy of his 10 strikeouts over his last 19 plate appearances—a nearly 53 percent whiff rate.
We can't even point to the team's current five-game homestand against Arizona and Los Angeles (NL) as reason for optimism that things are about to turn around—CarGo has been worse at Coors Field (.143/.167/.286) than he has been on the road this year (.240/.316/.360).
2015 Stats
85 PA, .200/.258/.329, 7 XBH (2 HR), 6 RBI, 7 BB, 22 K
Stock Down: RP Jason Grilli, Atlanta Braves
5 of 12
Weekly Stats
2 G, 0-1, 13.50 ERA, 2.50 WHIP, 2 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K, 1-for-2 SV
Overview
Blown saves are inevitable for a closer—nobody, not even the immortal Mariano Rivera, was perfect in the ninth inning. That fact offers little comfort for Jason Grilli, who blew his first save of the season last Tuesday against Washington—courtesy of a three-run blast off the bat of former Brave Dan Uggla.
"It won’t happen again, I guarantee you that," Grilli told David O'Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution after the game, noting that Uggla was sitting on his 0-2 fastball. "You get me once, but that’s about it.”
To Grilli's credit, it didn't happen his next time out, as he worked a nearly perfect ninth inning against Cincinnati last Friday. But should his ninth-inning struggles become more frequent—as they did in 2014—the Braves will move quickly to replace him in the role, all but killing his trade value.
2015 Stats
9 G, 0-1, 4.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9 IP, 6 H, 3 BB, 14 K, 8-for-9 SV
Stock Down: SP Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
6 of 12
Weekly Stats
GS, 0-1, 9.00 ERA, 2.17 WHIP, 6 IP, 10 H, 3 BB, 6 K
Overview
After allowing four earned runs or more in only three of his 30 starts in 2014, Cole Hamels equalled that mark in just six starts this year. He's also set a new career record for the most consecutive games with at least three walks, having issued 14 free passes over his last four outings and trails only San Diego's Tyson Ross (21) and Toronto's Aaron Sanchez (20) for the most in baseball.
"I guess I'm not getting away with anything," Hamels told Jake Kaplan of The Philadelphia Inquirer after Miami put six earned runs on the board against him this past weekend. "I think most guys can't locate 100 out of 100. You're hoping that you can at least get away with a few things. But unfortunately with what I'm doing and what I'm throwing, and maybe it's the pitch sequence, I'm just putting too many counts into hitters' counts."
Not only is Hamels putting hitters in favorable counts, but he's letting them get ahold of his pitches far too frequently. Only three pitchers—Colorado's Kyle Kendrick (10), Milwaukee's Kyle Lohse (nine) and Los Angeles' Brandon McCarthy (nine)—have allowed more home runs than the eight that Hamels has served up.
With each successive mediocre outing, Hamels looks less and less appealing to other teams, especially when you consider the significant financial investment (not to mention the prospects required) that he represents for an acquiring club. That's not to say that teams won't try to acquire him—but Philadelphia's going to have a hard time getting what it wants in exchange if he continues along this path.
2015 Stats
6 GS, 1-3, 4.14 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 37 IP, 31 H, 19 BB, 38 K
Stock Even: SP Scott Kazmir, Oakland Athletics
7 of 12
Weekly Stats
GS, 0-0, 4.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6 IP, 6 H, BB, 6 K
Overview
Scott Kazmir had his worst start of the season against Texas last Friday, serving up solo home runs to Kyle Blanks and Prince Fielder en route to a no-decision in a game Oakland would eventually win 7-5.
It certainly wasn't Kazmir at his best, and it paled in comparison to the seven shutout innings of one-hit ball he threw against Texas on April 8, but it was far from a disastrous outing and still qualified as a quality start, Kazmir's fifth in as many attempts this year.
You simply can't drop a player's stock when he's been that consistent.
2015 Stats
5 GS, 2-0, 1.62 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 33.1 IP, 21 H, 10 BB, 36 K
Stock Even: RP Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
8 of 12
Weekly Stats
3 G, 0-0, 3.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 3 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 3 K
Overview
Without a save situation in front of him, Jonathan Papelbon was mediocre over the past week, allowing at least one base hit in each of his last three outings and issuing a free pass in two of them. But perhaps the most interesting thing to come out of Philadelphia regarding its closer over the past week was the revelation that, contrary to popular opinion, Papelbon isn't a cancer in the clubhouse.
"Believe it or not, he's one of the best guys in the clubhouse," catcher Carlos Ruiz, the most popular guy in the clubhouse, told the Philadelphia Daily News' Marcus Hayes. "He keeps everybody loose. He helps the young guys, and the young guys love him. They love him because of how he is in the clubhouse. He's funny. At the same time, when the games start, he's locked in. The guys in the bullpen are always looking at the way he prepares for the game."
Is it possible that the team asked Ruiz (and other members of the club) to wax poetic about Papelbon when asked about him by the media? Sure. And chances are that nothing Ruiz or anyone else says about him is going to change how the veteran closer is perceived around the game.
Still, those are some interesting comments about a player who's supposed to be one of the most polarizing in baseball.
2015 Stats
11 G, 0-0, 1.59 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 11.1 IP, 8 H, 3 BB, 12 K, 5-for-5 SV
Stock Down: SP Jeff Samardzija, Chicago White Sox
9 of 12
Weekly Stats
GS, 0-1, 12.60 ERA, 2.20 WHIP, 5 IP, 10 H, 1 BB, 5 K
Overview
Coming off his worst start of the season, one that saw Baltimore put seven earned runs on the board against him in front of an empty house at Camden Yards, Jeff Samardzija believes that as the warmer weather arrives, so too will his effectiveness on the mound.
"As a power pitcher, things take time," Samardzija told the Chicago Tribune's Colleen Kane. "Especially when it's cold out, it's tough to really get what you want out of your arm. It's about location and it's about action of your stuff because you know when it warms up, that (velocity) is going to be there every day."
He's not entirely wrong. Per Brooks Baseball, Samardzija's fastball velocity has risen with the temperatures every season since 2012, his first as a starter.
But then you look at what he did with the Chicago Cubs last April, when he went 0-3 but pitched to a 1.98 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, and his point about velocity and effectiveness becomes a far less plausible reason for the awful start to his White Sox career.
With only two quality starts in five outings thus far, Samardzija has a lot of work to do if the White Sox have any chance of contending—or moving him at the trade deadline.
2015 Stats
5 GS, 1-2, 4.78 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 32 IP, 38 H, 6 BB, 22 K
Stock Down: SS Jean Segura, Milwaukee Brewers
10 of 12
Weekly Stats
5 G, .200/.273/.300 (4-for-20), 3B, 2 RBI, 3 K
Overview
The good news is that Jean Segura seems to be fine after taking a fastball off the helmet from Chicago's Pedro Strop, the second time that Milwaukee's shortstop has taken a pitch off his head this season. As former Brewers manager Ron Roenicke told reporters, you can't help but wonder if it will change Segura's approach at the plate.
"That's two in the helmet. That's not a good thing. You hope a guy doesn't get a little tentative in what he's doing. He does such a nice job doing the things we ask that you hope it doesn't start to bother him."
While Segura isn't expected to miss a significant amount of time from his latest beaning, Segura hasn't been doing much at the plate to help his team get out of its current funk. All four of his hits over the past week came on Saturday against the Cubs, with Segura going 0-for-15 over his other four games.
2015 Stats
103 PA, .289/.324/.381, 6 XBH (1 HR), 10 RBI, 2 BB, 10 K, 5-for-6 SB
Stock Even: SS Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies
11 of 12
2015 Stats
18 PA, .278/.278/.389 (5-for-18), 2 2B, RBI, 2 K
Overview
While he's struck out only once in nine May plate appearances, an 11.1 percent whiff rate—an improvement over the 19.75 percent rate he posted in April—Troy Tulowitzki has yet to go on a tear at the plate.
At this point, his stock remains even—despite a lack of power or gaudy stats, Tulowitzki is still contributing, albeit nowhere near the level that we've come to expect from the perennial MVP candidate who, by all accounts, appears to be healthy.
2015 Stats
90 PA, .299/.311/.506, 14 XBH (2 HR), 10 RBI, 2 BB, 17 K
Stock Down: 2B Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
12 of 12
Weekly Stats
27 PA, .080/.148/.200 (2-for-25), 1 HR, 5 RBI, 1 BB, 3 K
Overview
Philadelphia manager Ryne Sandberg has nothing left to say to Chase Utley. It's not because he's upset with his veteran second baseman—it's because he doesn't know what else he can say.
“When I look at the way Chase has swung the bat and gotten nothing to show for it...There’s nothing I can say to Chase," Sandberg told CSN Philadelphia's Jim Salisbury. "Continue to swing the bat and hit the ball hard. I can’t say much more. To watch him hit these balls and get nothing to show for it—I feel for the guy.”
“I don’t think I've swung the bat as poorly as my numbers show, but by no means have I swung the bat to the best of my capabilities,” Utley told Salisbury. He's right—Utley's .082 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is by far the lowest among qualified hitters this season and more than 200 points below his career mark.
Still, his numbers are what they are—and teams aren't going to pay top dollar for an aging middle infielder who is struggling to get his average up to the Mendoza line.
2015 Stats
99 PA, .103/.182/.207, 3 XBH (3 HR), 14 RBI, 7 BB, 14 K
Unless otherwise linked/noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs and are current through games through May 4. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts.
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR
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