Mayweather vs. Pacquiao: The One Punch Each Fighter Must Land to Win

In just the blink of an eye, everything can change.

With boxers at the skill level of Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao, delivering a punch with devastating consequences might actually take less time than a blink of an eye.

One punch can change the fight, one punch can change a career and just that one punch can either cement a legacy into the history books or conversely cause it to crumble into rubble like it was hit with a sledgehammer.

In the upcoming megafight—using the word mega almost feels like an undersell—between Mayweather and Pacquiao, it will be more about one type of punch landing frequently enough to control the style and tempo of the fight and win rounds than one singular punch ending the fight at any given moment.

The two boxers in this match fight different styles, so whoever is able to impose the type of fight they want to be in on their opponent will play a large role in determining the outcome.

This fight will be a classic battle between the aggressive, go-forward attacker and a wise and accurate counterpuncher. To win this fight, taking their opponent out of their preferred style and making them uncomfortable will be as important as executing their own style to perfection.

Pacquiao's One Punch

Part of the popular theory as to why Mayweather waited so long to take this fight—not placing blame because we're beyond that at this point—is because facing a southpaw with power could expose one of the few holes—if one actually exists—in his defense.

Mayweather has proved over his nearly two decades inside a professional ring that boxers who try to lunge in with their right hand have better odds of winning the lottery than touching his chin.

With his shoulder-roll defense and the threat of his lightning-quick counter straight right, Mayweather has been able to neutralize nearly every opponent who has attacked him with right hands from an orthodox stance. The one exception was Shane Mosley during the second round of their 2010 fight.

One punch we have seen fighters in orthodox stances land on Mayweather is the left-handed jab. Many boxers throw the jab more to score points than to damage their opponent. From a southpaw like Pacquiao, that left hand won't be a jab and will have more power behind it when it lands.

Fans or media members who pick Pacquiao solely on the basis of him being a southpaw with power are over-simplifying what it will take to win and ignoring some recent history. Some of those same people said the same things leading up to the fight against Robert Guerrero, and Mayweather made him look like a club fighter.

Pacquiao will have opportunities to land left-handed power shots and if enough of them find the mark, he'll win the fight. But to be successful and efficient in finding his own offense, while also avoiding the counter punches from Mayweather, his timing, movement and angles will be more important than which shots land.

To that point, an argument can be made that Pacquiao will win or lose the match against Mayweather with his footwork and not which hand he lands with most often.

Pacquiao will need to use his superb footwork to change angles in order to find an opening for his punches while also moving in and out of range of Mayweather before the bigger man can land his counter shots.

Mayweather used his size advantage very effectively in his dismantling of Juan Manuel Marquez in 2009 by controlling when and who broke the space between the two fighters. He was able to use his reach to touch Marquez whenever he wanted while never allowing Marquez to get inside to land his own offense.

If Mayweather is able to control distance with his size advantage—he's an inch and a half taller with a five-inch reach advantage—and force Pacquiao to lunge in wildly to get inside he'll coast to an easy victory as he punishes the smaller fighter with counter jabs and rights.

Likewise, if Pacquiao's attack becomes too predictable and Mayweather learns his timing and rhythm halfway through the fight like he does with most opponents, then Pacquiao will struggle to land many meaningful punches.

However, if Pacquiao is able to use Mayweather's tendencies as a counterpuncher against him, then he might have a chance.

What I mean by that is I'd like to see Pacquiao come forward and feint to try to draw Mayweather into opening up with a counter and as he does so either quickly back out of the pocket or take a step to the side before loading up and landing a counterpunch to Mayweather's counter.

The popular strategy to beat Mayweather has been to rush him, crowd him, be physical and apply non-stop pressure. While some of those strategies are useful, their shelf life is short because of how quickly Mayweather adapts, so Pacquiao and trainer Freddie Roach will need to be a bit more cunning with their attack.

If Pacquiao can draw Mayweather out of his defensive shell by his use of movement and feinting, then his own superb footwork and hand speed will give him openings to land big left hands that could change the fight and help him win.

Mayweather's One Punch

As mentioned in the last section, the key punch for Mayweather will be his straight right hand; more specifically his counter right hand.

What punch did Marquez use to knock out Pacquiao and dramatically end their last fight? A counter straight right hand; think Mayweather has watched that tape a few times?

That's why Pacquiao can't afford to come straight in or get too predictable with his attack. Marquez said after the fight that he had picked up a tell of sorts on Pacquiao and knew once he feinted in a certain way what punch would be coming next; Pacquiao's trainer echoed those comments.

He waited for his spot and landed the biggest punch of his career. Mayweather isn't known for his knockout power obviously, but given a similar situation I wouldn't be shocked by a similar result.

The key punch for any orthodox fighter against a southpaw is their lead or straight right hand, but Mayweather has been especially deadly with it in the past, including when he landed that punch like he had a cheat code in his blowout victory over Robert Guerrero in 2013.

Pacquiao obviously has far superior ability than Guerrero in terms of footwork and speed, which will help him avoid some of those shots, but how soon and how often Mayweather is able to land that shot will be very telling during the fight.

If Mayweather is able to control the tempo and distance of the match by timing Pacquiao on his way in with his lead right hand, he'll win the fight easily. If he doesn't, then we could have a competitive fight.

Prediction

Despite reasonable skepticism to the contrary, we should get some entertaining action in this fight through the early and maybe middle rounds. One plus that's come out of the excruciating wait for this fight to be made is that both guys have aged, which usually means they'll move less and exchange more.

However, as we've seen in every Mayweather fight, at some point he'll figure out the rhythm of Pacquiao and start to time his counter shots. Maybe that moment comes in the third round or the fifth round or even as late as the eighth round, but when it does Mayweather will cruise.

For Pacquiao to win, he'll need to use the strategy I talked about earlier to either be up by an insurmountable margin on the cards by the time Mayweather figures him out or put him away before he can do so.

Mayweather by decision 116-112