Why J.T. Barrett Could Have the Inside Track at the Ohio State Starting QB Job

COLUMBUS, Ohio — When Cardale Jones surprisingly announced he would return to Ohio State for his junior season following the Buckeyes' improbable run to the national title, he did so knowing there was no guarantee he'd reclaim his status as the team's starting quarterback. 

But as the only healthy signal-caller with experience under his belt on the OSU roster at the time, he also saw an opportunity to build an insurmountable lead in the Buckeyes' unprecedented quarterback competition.

With J.T. Barrett still recovering from a fractured ankle and Braxton Miller's status even more up in the air, Jones figured that he'd take all of the first-team reps with the Ohio State offense in the spring, a chance to build on the momentum he gained with three postseason wins at the end of the 2014 season.

"With a full offseason taking reps as a [No.] 1, I think it'll make me be the best quarterback I can possibly be," Jones said as he announced his decision to forego the upcoming NFL draft on Jan. 15.

And while the Cleveland native appears to have improved after what Urban Meyer deemed to be a "good" spring for the national champion quarterback, he didn't do enough to solidify himself as firmly ahead of Barrett and Miller. Perhaps even more concerning for Jones heading into the summer is the plan the Buckeyes head coach laid out for the country's most-talked-about position battle, which wouldn't appear to favor the Big Ten Championship Game MVP.

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"I'll come up with some kind of system throughout training camp that we're going to chart everything that everyone does," Meyer said after Ohio State's spring game on April 18. "We've kind of done it, but not to the degree that we're going to do it this year. Because you have to be right on now. This can't be, 'Well, I'm going with him because it's my gut feeling.'

"Those gut feelings—it's got to be statistical analysis and data, backed up on who is going to play quarterback."

Meyer didn't allude to who such studies would favor, but based on what we've seen to this point in their respective careers, it appears as though Barrett would have an edge over Jones from a statistical standpoint.

Although the sample size for Jones is significantly smaller than that of the reigning Big Ten Quarterback of the Year, Barrett was more accurate, responsible for more total yards per game and more touchdowns per game, while also posting a higher QBR on the season.

Player	Starts	Completion Percentage in Starts	Total Yards Per Start	Total TDs Per Start	QBR in Starts
J.T. Barrett	12	64.7	314.3	3.75	86.7
Cardale Jones	3	63.9	277.3	2	76.9

Comparing stats across that span with a such a discrepancy in starts is an imperfect science, and it's worth noting that Jones' three starts came against three of the tougher teams on the Buckeyes' schedule. But it's worth noting Barrett's freshman campaign was the best statistical season for a quarterback in Ohio State history, as he broke the school's total yardage record and the Big Ten's total touchdown mark.

What should be even more alarming for the 6'5", 250-pound Jones is that if Meyer were to go off of a "gut feeling," as he claims he won't do, he would likely be the one who would benefit. The Buckeyes' unlikely hero is yet to lose in a game that he's started and has spent the offseason as one of the faces of college football, despite not knowing whether or not he'll be Ohio State's starting quarterback next season.

Only adding to Barrett's case based on Meyer's criteria is the fact that what Jones does best doesn't necessarily show up in a stat sheet. With a rocket arm that can launch the ball more than 70 yards, opposing defenses have had to stay honest due to the threat of the deep ball, opening the running game in a way that is statistically apparent.

It's not a coincidence that Ezekiel Elliott had the three best games of his college career with Jones in the lineup, totaling 696 yards and eight touchdowns in the Buckeyes' postseason run, never rushing for fewer than 220 yards in a game. The Ohio State running back was strong with Barrett in the lineup, but with Jones he was spectacular, and he now enters 2015 as the front-runner to win the Heisman Trophy.

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Whether Meyer will take that into account this offseason remains to be seen, but his reliance on individual statistical analysis would seem to indicate he won't. In fact, Meyer's sudden insistence on numbers over intangibles is just the latest instance of the Ohio State head coach hinting not to count out Barrett this summer, in a spring that's been full of them.

"He's doing more than I thought," Meyer said of Barrett, who was able to participate in seven-on-seven passing drills and goal-line situations throughout the spring.

As for Miller, Meyer told The Dan Patrick Show on Tuesday that he doesn't anticipate the two-time Big Ten MVP transferring, although qualified the statement by noting that kids can change their minds. From a statistical standpoint, Miller's most recent season would fall behind Barrett's and be more comparable to Jones', depending how much value is placed on his ability to run the ball.

Of course, Meyer won't be relying on the past, but rather what his three capable quarterbacks do this summer. Based on what we do know, however—and how this spring has trended—that would seem to favor Barrett, who in one season showed that he's statistically unlike any quarterback Ohio State has seen, in the past or present.

Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Big Ten Lead Writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes were obtained firsthand. All statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com. Recruiting rankings courtesy of 247Sports.