Atlanta Falcons Mock Draft: Final 7-Round Predictions
The 2015 NFL draft is almost here!
And, thankfully, the Atlanta Falcons should have one of their better drafts of the last 10 years because of how the strength of the class matches up with the desperation of the Falcons' roster needs. After running through what feels like thousands of different scenarios, a final mock draft has come to fruition.
Keep in mind, that some of these picks may look like reaches, but the Falcons will draft players who fit their scheme and need regardless of what the media thinks they should do. Atlanta will be a better team in 2015, but they have to make sure they get new head coach Dan Quinn his kind of guys.
Round 1, No. 8 Overall: EDGE Vic Beasley, Clemson
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The absolute best fit for the Falcons in the draft is Clemson linebacker/defensive end Vic Beasley. He's a ridiculously good athlete who charts at the same level as guys like Von Miller, Cliff Avril, Bruce Irvin and Khalil Mack. His straight-line explosion is insane for someone who weighs just 246 pounds.
The Falcons would be an ideal fit for Beasley because they would use him in their "Leo" defensive end role that is pretty much a standing edge-rusher whose job is to set the edge and attack the passer. Over time, there could be a variant of the defense where the strong-side linebacker and "Leo" can flip at will.
With Brooks Reed, Kroy Biermann, Adrian Clayborn, O'Brien Schofield and Beasley, the Falcons would have a pass-rushing rotation that could create a ton of pressure even without a true 10-sack guy early on. After a few years, it wouldn't be shocking to see Beasley in that 12-15 sack range regularly.
Combine/Pro Day Measurements
Height: 6'3" Weight: 246 pounds
Arm Length: 32-1/2" Hand Measurement: 9-3/8"
40-yard dash: 4.53 sec. 10-yard split: 1.59 sec.
20-yard shuttle: 4.15 sec. Three-cone Drill: 6.91 sec. Bench Reps: 35 reps
Vertical Jump: 41.0" Broad Jump: 10'10"
Stats (from CFB Stats)
2014: 13 Games Played, 34 Tackles, 21.5 Tackles for Loss, 12.0 Sacks, 6 QB Hurries, 2 Fumbles Forced, 1 Fumble Recovered, 3 Pass Deflections, 1 Defensive Touchdown
2013: 13 Games Played, 41 Tackles, 23.0 Tackles for Loss, 13.0 Sacks, 5 QB Hurries, 4 Fumbles Forced, 1 Fumble Recovered, 6 Pass Deflections, 1 Defensive Touchdown
2012: 13 Games Played, 14 Tackles, 8.0 Tackles for Loss, 8.0 Sacks, 2 QB Hurries, 1 Fumble Forced
2011: 9 Games Played, 1 Tackle
2010: Redshirted
Round 2, No. 42 Overall: OG Ali Marpet, Hobart
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There are ways to win in the NFL and as my colleague Pete Smith says, "Fat boys win championships. Skinny ones sell tickets." The offensive and defensive lines are the most crucial to winning titles in the NFL and with Beasley shoring up the defensive line, the offensive line needs to be shored up.
Jake Matthews at left tackle and Ryan Schraeder at right tackle are both great fits for the zone scheme. As are Joe Hawley at center and Jon Asamoah at right guard. The real need is at left guard. The Falcons need someone who can come right in and be a competent pass-blocker and average run-blocker.
Marpet may have played at the Division III level, but he'd be an upgrade over what the Falcons have at left guard. He's extremely strong and moves quickly. The questions surrounding his game all come from technique refinement—something he hasn't had much of at the Division III level.
Combine/Pro Day Measurements
Height: 6'3-7/8" Weight: 307 pounds
Arm Length: 33-3/8" Hand Measurement: 10"
40-yard dash: 4.98 sec. 10-yard split: 1.71 sec.
20-yard shuttle: 4.47 sec. Three-cone Drill: 7.33 sec. Bench Reps: 30 reps
Vertical Jump: 30.5" Broad Jump: 9'0”
Stats
2014: 13 games started at left tackle
2013: 11 games started at left tackle
2012: 13 games started at left tackle
2011: 6 games played at multiple positions along the offensive line
Round 3, No. 73 Overall: FS Josh Shaw, Southern California
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The Falcons need someone who can drop back to the deep third of the field and help cover the mistakes of the gentlemen in front of them on passing downs. They need someone with great speed, good length and the ability to bring down anyone in the open field. They also need a playmaker who picks passes off.
Josh Shaw from Southern California is a great fit for what the Falcons need, as he's a former cornerback with safety experience and is a playmaker when it comes to his ball skills. He's a solid, wrap-up tackler who isn't afraid to take on contact and can drop down into a nickel spot to press a receiver on third downs.
Shaw would give the Falcons a ton of scheme versatility in their secondary and would be a perfect foil to William Moore. With Dezmen Southward likely coming in on third downs and being the nickel cornerback, the Falcons could easily have one of the better nickel sets in football in 2015 with the pick of Shaw.
Combine/Pro Day Measurements
Height: 6'0" Weight: 201 lbs
Arm Length: 30 3/4" Hand Measurement: 9"
40-Yard Dash: 4.44 sec. 10-Yard Split: 1.54 sec.
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.12 sec. Three-Cone Drill: 7.01 sec. Bench Reps: 26 reps
Vertical Jump: 37 1/2" Broad Jump: 10'10"
Stats (from CFB Stats)
2014: 3 Games Played, 11 Tackles
2013: 14 Games Played, 67 Tackles, 5.5 Tackles for Loss, 4 Interceptions, 7 Pass Deflections, 1 Defensive Touchdown
2012: 13 Games Played, 30 Tackles, 2.0 Tackles for Loss, 2 Interceptions, 6 Pass Deflections
Transferred from Florida to Southern California
2011: 10 Games Played, 22 Tackles, 1.0 Tackle for Loss, 1 Pass Deflections
2010: 1 Games Played, Redshirted due to injury
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Round 4, No. 107 Overall: RB David Johnson, Northern Iowa
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The Falcons need someone who can complement Devonta Freeman in the running game. David Johnson out of Northern Iowa has all the tools to be an effective third-down and power running back for the Falcons' new zone-blocking scheme under new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan.
Johsnon is a vision running back who would do best if he could go out there and be a one-cut-and-go running back. He's an all-around talent who can pass block, catch out of the backfield and gain the tough yards between the tackles on third downs. Johnson was also a highly productive college player.
The best part of Johnson's game is easily his athleticism. He was the fastest running back in Mobile for the Senior Bowl, but he also looked good running at the combine too. His running back speed score—a measure that determines straight-line speed by weight is 109—as calculated on my big board spreadsheet.
Combine/Pro Day Measurements
Height: 6'1" Weight: 224 pounds
Arm Length: 31-1/4" Hand Measurement: 9-5/8"
40-yard dash: 4.50 sec. 10-yard split: 1.58 sec.
20-yard shuttle: 4.27 sec. Three-cone Drill: 6.82 sec. Bench Reps: 25 reps
Vertical Jump: 41.5" Broad Jump: 10'7”
Stats (from the Washington Post)
2014: 14 Games Played, 287 Carries, 1,553 Yards, 17 Touchdowns, 38, Catches, 536 Yards, 2 Touchdowns, 12 Kick Returns, 438 Yards, 1 Touchdown, 1-of-1 Passing (100.0 percent), 36 Yards, 1 Touchdown
2013: 11 Games Played, 222 Carries, 1,286 Yards, 10 Touchdowns, 38 Catches, 393 Yards, 4 Touchdowns
2012: 11 Games Played, 178 Carries, 1,021 Yards, 13 Touchdowns, 32 Catches, 383 Yards, 5 Touchdowns, 1-of-1 Passing (100.0 percent), 7 Yards
2011: 13 Games Played, 179 Carries, 822 Yards, 9 Touchdowns, 33 Catches, 422 Yards, 3 Touchdowns
2010: Redshirted
Round 5, No. 146 Overall: TE Darren Waller, Georgia Tech
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The Falcons need a tight end who can both block and catch. They need someone who has experience receiving the ball but also has the willingness to succeed as a blocker. More than anything, they need someone who has the talent to beat out Jacob Tamme and Levine Toilolo.
Darren Waller out of Georgia Tech played wide receiver in college but profiles very well to a poor man's Jimmy Graham-role in the pros. He's a tall, physical receiver who has good body control and would provide a great option in the red zone, as he always fights for the ball.
Waller is extremely raw in pass blocking since he hasn't had to do it much and is a solid run-blocker. He may not be perfect technically, but he's more than willing to give his all and learn how to play the position the right way and not just as a receiving threat.
Combine/Pro Day Measurements
Height: 6'6" Weight: 238 pounds
Arm Length: 33 1/4" Hand Measurement: 9"
40-yard dash: 4.46 sec. 10-yard split: 1.58 sec.
20-yard shuttle: 4.25 sec. Three-cone Drill: 7.07 sec. Bench Reps: 12 reps
Vertical Jump: 37" Broad Jump: 10'5”
Stats (from CFB Stats)
2014: 12 Games Played, 26 Catches, 442 Yards, 6 Touchdowns
2013: 12 Games Played, 17 Catches, 367 Yards, 3 Touchdowns
2012: 14 Games Played, 8 Catches, 162 Yards, 2 Tackles
2011: 11 Games Played, 1 Kick Blocked
Round 6, No. 185 Overall: CB Alex Carter, Stanford
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The Falcons like long, tall, physical cornerbacks like Alex Carter from Stanford. Carter is a talented player, but he may not fit everyone's scheme and has stiffness in his hips at times. The Falcons should be okay with him as a nickel corner competitor early on.
Carter doesn't have top-tier potential as an NFL outside cornerback, but he should be a quality reserve and special teams player. For a sixth-round pick, there are worse things that you can draft. He fits the profile of the Dan Quinn corner, and that alone is worth drafting.
Combine/Pro Day Measurements
Height: 6'0" Weight: 196 pounds
Arm Length: 32-1/8" Hand Measurement: 9-1/8"
40-yard dash: 4.50 sec. 10-yard split: 1.60 sec.
20-yard shuttle: 4.07 sec. Three-cone Drill: 7.05 sec. Bench Reps: 17 reps
Vertical Jump: 40" Broad Jump: 10'1”
Stats (from CFB Stats)
2014: 13 Games Played, 41 Tackles, 1 Interception, 1 Fumble Forced, 9 Pass Deflections
2013: 13 Games Played, 58 Tackles, 1.0 Tackle for Loss, 1 Interception, 8 Pass Deflections
2012: 14 Games Played, 46 Tackles, 3.0 Tackles for Loss, 3 Fumbles Forced, 1 Pass Deflection, 5 Kick Returns, 110 Yards
Round 7, No. 225 Overall: WR DeAndre Smelter, Georgia Tech
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If it wasn't for injury, DeAndre Smelter would likely be a top three-round pick. But due to injury and one of the deepest wide receiver classes in the past few years, he could potentially fall out of the draft entirely. Smelter has the frame, speed and talent to be a good receiver in the NFL.
Smelter needs to refine his game, tremendously. Playing baseball for three straight years to start his college career combined with playing in a triple-option offense has Smelter's routes looking mediocre. He's not a well-rounded starting receiver as it sits now but sitting behind Roddy White and Julio Jones could help.
Combine/Pro Day Measurements
Height: 6'2" Weight: 226 pounds
Arm Length: 32-5/8" Hand Measurement: 11"
Stats (from CFB Stats)
2014: 12 Games Played, 35 Catches, 715 Yards, 7 Touchdowns, 3 Carries, 103 Yards, 1 Touchdown
2013: 13 Games Played, 21 Catches, 345 Yards, 4 Touchdowns, 1 Carry, 12 Yards, 11 Punt Returns, 124 Yards, 5 Kick Returns, 65 Yards
2012: Played for the Yellow Jackets' Baseball Team
2011: Played for the Yellow Jackets' Baseball Team
2010: Played for the Yellow Jackets' Baseball Team
Round 7, No. 249 Overall: DL Brian Mihalik, Boston College
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One pick that could be a true boom-or-bust talent this late in the draft is Brian Mihalik. He's not an ideal fit as far as needs are concerned but the almost 6'9" powerhouse has a frame, strength, speed and explosion combination that would put him near the top of the draft.
Mihalik wasn't highly productive in college but sometimes chances need to be taken. He's big enough to compete at defensive end, defensive tackle or even a blitzing stand-up linebacker to confuse teams with his versatility within the defense.
Combine/Pro Day Measurements
Height: 6'9" Weight: 302 pounds
40-yard dash: 4.89 sec. 10-yard split: 1.70 sec.
20-yard shuttle: 4.37 sec. Three-cone Drill: 7.23 sec. Bench Reps: 23 reps
Vertical Jump: 35.5" Broad Jump: 10'2”
Stats (from CFB Stats)
2014: 13 Games Played, 31 Tackles, 5.5 Tackles for Loss, 4.5 Sacks, 1 QB Hurry, 1 Interception, 1 Pass Deflection
2013: 13 Games Played, 26 Tackles, 6.0 Tackles for Loss, 2.0 Sacks, 1 Fumble Forced, 1 Pass Deflection
2012: 9 Games Played, 22 Tackles, 3.5 Tackles for Loss, 1.0 Sack, 1 Fumble Forced, 3 Pass Deflections
2011: 8 Games Played, 6 Tackles, 1.0 Tackle for Loss, 1.0 Sack, 2 Pass Deflections
All stats used are from Pro Football Focus' Premium Stats, ESPN.com, CFBStats or NFL.com. All combine and pro day info is courtesy of NFLDraftScout.com. All contract information is courtesy of Spotrac.
Scott Carasik is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. He covers the Atlanta Falcons, college football, the NFL and the NFL draft. He's also a Draft Analyst for Pro Football Spot.
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