Kentucky Derby 2015 Horses: Final Odds, Projections and Lineup Review

The busiest day on the 2015 sports calendar is upon us. Saturday will see the NBA and NHL hold high-profile playoff matchups, the biggest boxing match of this generation and the beginning of our latest search for a Triple Crown.

You've heard it eight million times, but it bears repeating: No horse has gone on to win all three of horse racing's biggest events since Affirmed in 1978. California Chrome last year became the latest in a series of close calls, taking the Kentucky Derby and Preakness before running out of steam at the Belmont.

American Pharoah enters Saturday sitting in the pole position. The Bob Baffert-trained colt is coming off a scintillating run to start 2015 and has been installed as a prohibitive favorite...just above another Baffert-trained colt in Dortmund. 

Todd Pletcher will also have a good shot with both Carpe Diem and Materiality looking like solid secondary favorites. With that in mind, let's take a quick look at the final odds for this afternoon's race and predict who will come out on top.

2015 Kentucky Derby Odds

No.	Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	2	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	25-1
2	3	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	8-1
3	4	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	16-1
4	5	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	50-1
5	6	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	33-1
6	7	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	Mike de Kock	12-1
7		El Kabeir	Calvin Borel		SCR
8	8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	18-5
9	9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	40-1
10	10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	12-1
11		Stanford	Florent Geroux		SCR
12		International Star	Miguel Mena		SCR
13	11	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	33-1
14	12	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	40-1
15	13	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	16-1
16	14	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	50-1
17	15	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	50-1
18	16	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	13-5
19	17	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	25-1
20	18	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	40-1
21	19	Frammento	Corey Nakatani	Nick Zito	66-1

Horses to Watch

American Pharoah (5-2)

Garry Jones/Associated Press

American Pharoah is a deserving favorite. The three-year-old colt enters having already taken the Arkansas Derby and Rebel Stakes earlier this year, both in highly impressive fashion. The Arkansas Stakes victory was to many what put Pharoah over the top as the favorites over Dortmund, winning by eight lengths.

Bloodstock agent Gary Young told Jonathan Lintner of The Courier-Journal that Pharoah might be the best horse he's seen in more than three decades: "And (American Pharoah) might be the best horse I've ever seen. He's simply like Michael Jordan and stays in the air like he did in his rookie year. He stays in the air longer than any horse and you get the feeling that there's not one gear left, but he may have two, three or four gears."

From an overall perspective, it's hard to find things to dislike. Pharoah has an excellent pedigree, one of the world's best trainers at his side and a near-flawless resume. The lone loss Pharoah has picked up in his career was his first race.

Then again, Pharoah will have to overcome Baffert's recent run of failures at Churchill Downs. The legendary trainer has not brought home a Kentucky Derby since War Emblem pulled off the feat in 2002. Last year saw Baffert finally take home Breeders' Cup Classic for the first time.

If Pharoah is as good as everyone says, Baffert should once again be triumphant.

Dortmund (3-1)

Garry Jones/Associated Press

If Pharoah isn't as good as everyone says, well, maybe Dortmund is. The colt has opened his career with six straight victories, including three already this calendar year. While not quite as dominant as American Pharoah, Dortmund still came away with a 4 1/4-length triumph at last month's Santa Anita Derby.

"The Derby is tough," Baffert said, per Jennie Rees of The Courier-Journal. "I have two nice horses but there are other really nice horses. This is, on paper, the toughest Derby I've ever been in—a lot of good horses."

Dortmund also has the Kentucky Derby pedigree. He was sired by 2008 Derby winner Big Brown, who went on to nearly pull off the Triple Crown. It's nearly unprecedented, Baffert training by far the two favorites. But even with all the spotlight casting on him, Baffert has maintained a level head.

"I don't feel pressure," Baffert said, per Tim Wilkin of The Times Union. "I feel pressure if things are not going well, or they aren't training well. If it's meant to be, it's meant to be. It's more fun going into it when you have a legitimate chance to win. When you go in without a legitimate chance, it's no fun."

We'll see how much fun Baffert is having Saturday night.