2015 Kentucky Derby Horses: Ranking Every Contender at Churchill Downs
This year’s Kentucky Derby boasts either one of the fastest, most competitive fields assembled in years or a scenery-chewing battle between two great actors for top billing on the marquee with a lot of interesting bit players underneath them.
The spotlight for the 141st Run for the Roses shines squarely on the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who sends out reigning juvenile champion American Pharoah and the undefeated giant, Dortmund, as two solid and deserving favorites.
Yet, a total of eight runners in the field have earned Beyer Speed Figures of 100 or higher—a standard benchmark of excellence in the sport—and that doesn’t even include Blue Grass Stakes winner Carpe Diem, who at 4-of-5 lifetime is one of the most respected of all the runners.
It also doesn’t account for Mubtaahij, the Irish-bred invader who has been clobbering his unknowable opposition in the United Arab Emirates for world-renowned trainer Michael de Kock.
There are stacks of front-runners and close-up stalkers signed up to compete, creating a bewildering projection for the pace scenario, and the late-running deep closers entered have so far not earned speed figures that make them contenders. Then again, that doesn’t mean they should be counted out. No one should ever forget the stunning late charge to victory by the inscrutable Mine That Bird in 2009.
The following are a set of Kentucky Derby power rankings for the entire field in order of preference. The rankings, fluid right up until post time, were determined by study of past performances, visual observation of videotaped workouts and virtually every race run by the horses in the field, as well as the use of Progressive Handicapping's Sire Ratings: 2015-2016 and PedigreeQuery.com for pedigree analysis.
18. Itsaknockout
1 of 18
Notable wins: Grade 2 Fountain of Youth
Biggest strength: He had a rough trip in the Fountain of Youth and was placed first through disqualification. The Fountain of Youth has consistently produced subsequent Classic race winners, most recently 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags and 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb.
Analysis: He was absolutely drilled by Materiality and Upstart in his next start, the Florida Derby. Pinning your hopes on a disqualification victory that earned an 88 Beyer Speed Figure is not the right approach to winning the toughest horse race in the country.
17. Ocho Ocho Ocho
2 of 18
Notable wins: Grade 3 Delta Jackpot
Biggest strength: Any horse that wins a million-dollar race has to be pretty good.
The rundown: Against a very tough field that included Dortmund in the San Felipe, Ocho Ocho Ocho was bet hard down to 4-1, and he tossed his backers an absolute stink bomb, finishing eighth. Trainer James Cassidy admitted the horse was not quite trained up to the task, but when he ran back in the Blue Grass Stakes, the son of Derby winner Street Sense made the pace for six furlongs and faded to third.
Any impact at all is highly unlikely. This is the kind of horse that should not be sacrificed just to make an appearance.
16. War Story
3 of 18
Notable wins: None
Biggest strength: Hit the board in all three prep races at the Fair Grounds this past winter.
The rundown: War Story was pretty highly rated after a nice allowance win to close out his two-year-old campaign, but despite taking a lot of money at the betting windows in his three subsequent starts, he lost to International Star each time. That horse is going to be a long shot in here, so what does that make him?
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15. Frammento
4 of 18
Notable wins: None
Biggest strength: From his very first race, Frammento has competed in good company. He has shown a willingness to run hard through the lane.
The rundown: Two-time Kentucky Derby winner Nick Zito, not quite the force in the sport he was in the past, got his wish when Frammento drew in from the also-eligible list. The colt's best effort was a third-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, beaten just 4 1/2 lengths by Upstart, whom many experts put among the top contenders in this group. Yet Frammento has only one win in seven starts, and he was life-and-death to get that.
His pedigree is slanted toward shorter distances. His best bet would be to drop back and hope the race falls apart and he picks up the pieces. It happens often in the Derby—see long-shot runner-ups Commanding Curve and Golden Soul in the past two editions—but in a field of this quality, he would be a terrific surprise.
14. Keen Ice
5 of 18
Notable wins: None
Biggest strength: Has run in five straight major-stakes races, so he has experience; bred to get the Derby distance.
The rundown: A son of Hall of Fame runner Curlin, Keen Ice is a huge, lumbering ox who has yet to show he is in the class of the best. He had no excuse at all when finishing fourth in the Louisiana Derby. He just couldn’t keep up. He lacks athleticism at this stage of his career, so he will need clear sailing to even finish in the top 10. There is promise, and he’s getting better, but not here, not now.
13. Danzig Moon
6 of 18
Notable wins: None
Biggest strength: Finished second behind Carpe Diem in the Blue Grass Stakes, making him a value play for those who like that horse.
The rundown: He's in the expert care of trainer Mark Casse, but he appears a significant cut below the best in here, despite his stout breeding. He traveled well out in the sixth path when finishing second in the Blue Grass. The effort just might diminish Carpe Diem more than it enhances Danzig Moon.
12. Tencendur
7 of 18
Notable wins: None
Biggest strength: Appears to be blossoming at the right time; it took a big effort by Frosted to run him down in the lane in the Wood Memorial.
The rundown: This New York-bred had never done anything to warrant respect when he ran in the Wood Memorial at odds of 21-1, but he comfortably tracked a slow pace three-wide and then attacked and took over on the far turn before being caught in the stretch.
He figures to be much farther back in the Derby behind a fast pace, and nothing has shown he is ready for this kind of assignment. He deserved long shot, despite his 100 Beyer Speed Figure in the Wood.
11. Mr. Z
8 of 18
Notable wins: None
Biggest strength: Has been in against just about all the big horses and fared well without winning; despite only a maiden win, he clearly has an appetite for the competition. His trainer is Hall of Fame master D. Wayne Lukas.
The rundown: For starters, you get Lukas at the controls, a Hall of Famer with four Derby victories to his credit. You also get a horse that has danced in 11 stakes races, four of them elite Grade 1s. He finished just a head behind Dortmund in the Los Alamitos Futurity. He is fast and game; yet, to this point, a consistent cut below the best with only one victory to his credit—his debut.
After a ninth-place debacle behind International Star in the Louisiana Derby, it was fascinating to watch Mr. Z change his front-running tactics at career-high odds of 20-1 in the Arkansas Derby just two weeks later. He traveled behind American Pharoah on the backstretch and then challenged the champ on the far turn. He didn’t pass him, but it certainly showed a new dimension for the horse. Doubtful that will be enough.
10. Far Right
9 of 18
Notable wins: Grade 3 Southwest Stakes, Smarty Jones Stakes
Biggest strength: At the end of his past three races, he has made up ground in the lane and won two of them.
The rundown: Far Right only cost $2,500 at auction two years ago; you could get a junker for your daughter to drive to high school for that price. Yet here he is, looking like a champ, galloping in the mornings at Churchill Downs, where he has raced three times in his career, finishing first, second and third.
While not fast, Far Right is resilient, and his victories in the Smarty Jones and Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park this past winter were excellent. He traveled 13 lengths behind American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby and rallied to place second. His problem is that stretch-runners often see their kick dulled at longer distances. His best efforts have come in shorter races. He drew the outside No. 20 post position. Far Right, indeed.
9. Bolo
10 of 18
Notable wins: Eddie Logan Stakes on turf
Biggest strength: The turf-runner has made a successful switch to grass in quest of a run in the Kentucky Derby. Despite not winning yet on dirt, he has gone faster than he did on turf.
The rundown: Since making his first three starts on grass—winning two—Bolo has had two dirt runs, both against the mighty Dortmund. He finished third in both, disgraced in neither. He earned a 101 Beyer Speed Figure in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe and then regressed to a 95 in the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby.
Unquestionably talented, his stalking style nevertheless does not fit well in this company, and he should be expected to be fading in the lane.
8. Firing Line
11 of 18
Notable wins: Grade 3 Sunland Derby
Biggest strength: His talent is a known quantity, having finished second twice to Dortmund by a head.
The rundown: In the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Firing Line passed Dortmund on the turn for home only to relinquish the lead deep in the stretch and get nailed on the line. It was a heartbreaker and maybe the best Triple Crown prep race of the year. He earned a 104 Beyer Speed Figure for that race—13 points higher than his previous top number.
Horses often regress off their best race, but trainer Simon Callaghan decided Firing Line’s next race would be the relatively easy Sunland Derby on March 22. He crushed a nondescript field by 14 1/4 lengths and earned a 97 Beyer. If that was the regression, it may be time to go forward again and that makes him a threat. If there is a weakness, it is a pedigree tilted more toward speed then stamina.
He's another stalker in the field with a chance.
7. Upstart
12 of 18
Notable wins: Grade 2 Holy Bull
Biggest strength: He is a proven competitor in some of the best prep races of the year. As fast as he was as a two-year-old, he has gotten even faster at age three.
The rundown: Veteran New York trainer Rick Violette has sent two horses to the Kentucky Derby in his career—Read the Footnotes, seventh in 2004, and Samraat, fifth last year. The record is not a bad one, and Upstart might be the best chance he ever gets. Only two other horses in the field have earned Beyer Speed Figures of 100 or better three more times, and they are the favorites, Dortmund and American Pharoah.
Upstart looked exhausted at the end of his thrilling—and losing—battle with Materiality on March 28 in the Florida Derby, but he has worked fast in preparing for this race. He is a proven fighter who crushed subsequent Wood Memorial winner Frosted in the Holy Bull and placed second in the Fountain of Youth. He may get forgotten in the wagering, but he has every right to win.
6. Materiality
13 of 18
Notable wins: Grade 1 Florida Derby
Biggest strength: He has the highest Beyer Speed Figure—110—of any horse in the field. While he has only raced three times, he is unmistakably brilliant.
The rundown: All good racing fans know that Apollo is the only horse ever to win the Kentucky Derby without racing as a two-year-old, and he did that in 1882. It is a record that stands as inviolable as Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak, yet always appears far more breakable when an incredibly fast three-year-old appears out of nowhere.
Materiality, trained by Todd Pletcher, won his debut easily on a sloppy track on Jan. 11. In his next start, he displayed magic with a torridly fast victory in a small 1 1/8-mile stakes race on March 6 at Gulfstream Park, in which he whipped his stablemate Stanford by 5 3/4 lengths.
Stanford came out of that race and missed winning the Louisiana Derby by a neck. Materiality went straight into the Florida Derby against one of the most accomplished runners in racing—Upstart.
A half-mile into the race, the two separated from the seven other runners and put on a show worthy of Affirmed and Alydar. Despite his lack of seasoning, Materiality refused to let Upstart go by and won by 1 1/4 length. The performance was electrifying.
How great Materiality is remains to be seen, but his style is pretty much the same as that of Dortmund and American Pharoah and Carpe Diem and Firing Line. Which horse will crack under this pressure and how much foundation does Materiality have for the battle ahead? His best bet might be to go straight to the lead from the No. 3 post and try to fend off any runners fast enough to catch him. There may not be many.
5. Carpe Diem
14 of 18
Notable wins: Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes, Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby, Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity
Biggest strength: He likes to win, which is a very good thing, and is trained by Todd Pletcher, who has earned seven Eclipse Awards as the leading trainer in the country.
The rundown: On the downside, Pletcher is 1-of-40 in the Kentucky Derby. Carpe Diem might fit the Pletcher profile of failure.
He has beaten very good horses, including Ready for Rye, a stakes-winning sprinter; and Mr. Z and Upstart, both tough horses running in the Derby. He won the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes with a time zone's worth of daylight between him and the second-place finishers. He cost $1.6 million at auction in 2014 and is loaded with stamina influences in his bloodlines. He is meant to be great. So what’s the problem?
He might not be good enough. Never has Carpe Diem earned a Beyer Speed Figure above 100, and many of his rivals have. We may not have seen the best of him, but what if some of the others improve, too? He likes to stalk the leader from up close and power by heading into the far turn. Yet he drew a dreaded post, No. 2, sandwiched between two other speed horses. Trouble looms early for him.
4. American Pharoah
15 of 18
Notable wins: Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, Grade 2 Rebel, Grade 1 Front Runner, Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity
Biggest strength: He has simply overwhelmed his opposition with speed and power. He's probably the most magnificent-looking horse in the field, and, so far, he has run to those looks.
The rundown: He has had a splendid run up to the Derby, working fast and pretty much looking like a god all week at Churchill Downs. His muscular, compact body exudes efficient power when he runs. Except for his loss, sprinting in his debut, no one has come close. But as two-year-old champion, American Pharoah was crowned, despite having skipped the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with an injury.
The best horses he has beaten—Calculator and Texas Red—were injured early and never even made it onto the Derby trail. His best recent competitor, Far Right, is a late closer who had no chance under the pace scenario in the Arkansas Derby. This horse is too untested to be accepted as the post-time favorite. He also doesn’t appear bred for 1 1/4 miles and should be approached with healthy skepticism.
3. Frosted
16 of 18
Notable wins: Grade 1 Wood Memorial
Biggest strength: Has competed in excellent company, acquitting himself well every time out.
The rundown: Trained by Kentucky-born Kiaran McLaughlin for the mighty Godolphin Racing stable, Frosted has always been a horse with a world of unrealized promise, having finished second by a half-length in the Remsen Stakes at two years old and second in the Holy Bull Stakes in his three-year-old debut. He faded to fourth after leading much of the way in the Fountain of Youth Stakes on Feb. 21.
After that, McLaughlin sent him for minor surgery that keeps horses from flipping their palette, which can obstruct breathing. The result? An easy two-length victory in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct with a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 103. He traveled well wide in that race and closed strongly into a slow pace to run down 21-1 long-shot Tencendur.
Bred to run forever on both sides of his pedigree, this gray colt could make a major impact from off the pace at a big price.
2. Mubtaahij
17 of 18
Notable wins: Grade 2 UAE Derby, Al Bastakiya
Biggest strength: He boasts the dangerous combination of tracking speed and a blistering closing punch; he's perfectly comfortable being in slots behind other runners, which will be critical in a 20-horse field.
The rundown: No horse prepped in the United Arab Emirates has ever won the Kentucky Derby, but this Irish-bred son of the stamina-influencing sire Dubawi may be the one to break through.
The quality of his desert opposition is questionable, but the authority of his victories is not. His running style is ideally suited to 1 1/4 miles at Churchill Downs: He finds a good, forwardly placed position to track the leaders and then at the top of the stretch, he either goes around or between them with tremendous acceleration.
His Belgian jockey, Christophe Soumillon, has never ridden in the race, but he has plenty experience riding on dirt at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai. His trainer, Michael de Kock, is one of the renowned international horsemen, who only would make this quixotic journey if he thought he had a strong chance.
1. Dortmund
18 of 18
Notable wins: Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, Grade 2 San Felipe, Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis, Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity
Biggest strength: He is fast and undefeated and showed tremendous tenacity when passed in the Robert B. Lewis and then came back and won. He carries himself with the unmistakable presence of a top horse.
The rundown: His stablemate, American Pharoah, likely will go off as the favorite, but this enormous son of Derby winner Big Brown is likely better prepared for the daunting, undefeated task ahead. He has raced in large fields and won. He has come from off the pace and won. He has gone to the lead and won. He has been passed in the stretch and still won.
Speed, competitive desire and a pedigree laden with stamina influences set him up as the horse they will all have to beat.
John Scheinman covered racing for eight years at The Washington Post, co-founded and edited Kentucky Confidential and contributes to the Blood-Horse. He lives in Baltimore. Unless otherwise noted, all quotes were obtained firsthand.
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