Mayweather vs. Pacquiao: Latest Details, Odds Advice for Superfight
While the buildup to the showdown between Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather has been anything but simple, the best odds advice is to keep it simple.
It's easy to overthink any bout, where the usual factors come into play. What may be the biggest fight in history touts these factors such as weight, age, fitness level, contrasting styles and orthodox versus southpaw.
The above would be enough to drive bettors mad, but feel free to add in the long, long buildup for a fight most thought would never happen.
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It can be overwhelming, so let's break down some of the most pertinent odds.
| Mayweather (10-21) | Over 11.5 (4-13) | Yes (1-3) |
| Pacquiao (17-10) | Under 11.5 (43-20) | No (23-10) |
Fight Length
Bettors know the deal with these two.
Pacquiao can be a heavy hitter and loves his offensive barrages, but the only time he's had a fight end early in recent years is when he got caught and bit the canvas in an oh-so-infamous moment in 2012 against Juan Manuel Marquez.
Mayweather's less inclined to please the crowd, instead using his elite athleticism, instincts and a patented shoulder roll to avoid pushes and go to the scorecards.
ESPN Stats & Info summarizes it well:
In other words, this one has to go the distance, right?
Pacquiao, at least, wants to see Mayweather go in for a knockout, as he told Boxing Scene.
"If he (goes for a knockout), that's good for me," Pacquiao said. "I like that. We'll see. That's what I want, and that's definitely what the fans want—action."
It doesn't seem probable, though. Mayweather could have gone after a knockout in either fight against Marcos Maidana but instead was willing to watch his opponent gas himself while hoping for a home run.
Could the same fate befall Pacquiao?
| Landed | 166 | 128 |
| Thrown | 326 | 572 |
| Pct. | 51% | 22% |
Maidana was bigger than Mayweather by the time their second bout rolled around and was perhaps heavier than Pacquiao will be, yet the punch totals from Money's dominant win speak for themselves, per BoxRec.com.
What should seem more probable? Mayweather risking it all to go for a knockout or preserving his undefeated record in a legacy-defining bout with the same strategy he has used his entire career?
Look for the fight to go the over and the distance.
How it Ends
This is where things get tricky.
It's easy to fall into a trap of thinking Pacquiao can score the knockout if he continues to keep his foot on the gas.
The thought process is something fans seem to latch onto, as Jason Simbal of CG Technology tells Josh Peter of BoxingJunkie.com:
"All of the smaller bets, $50, $100, are coming in on Pacquiao, and the bigger bets on Mayweather. It's kind of what we were expecting. The casual bettors all seem to be betting Pacquiao and that liability if increasing on Pacquiao."
There seems to be a divide where casual fans feel comfortable rolling with the combatant who throws more punches.
The thing is, Pacquiao winning on the scorecards if the bout goes the distance seems a long shot. This is about playing the best possible odds, and they show in a blatant manner a fighter in Mayweather who has never gone down and shows no signs of going down in the near future.
Call it a simplification of things, but picking now of all times for Mayweather to lose on the scorecards is playing with fire. Pacquiao needs to be at his absolute best, keep his head out of counter range and somehow overcompensate for Mayweather's pinpoint accuracy, and instead he has spent the past two years rehabbing his image and resume after two straight losses.
After tossing the hype aside, the safest bet is Mayweather by unanimous decision.
Odds via Odd Shark as of April 23 at 7 a.m. ET.
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