Ottawa Senators' Blueprint for Upsetting Montreal, & Why It Likely Won't Matter

First, the good news.

The Ottawa Senators staved off elimination at the hands of the Montreal Canadiens on Wednesday night with a 1-0 victory in Game 4 of their first-round series. The Senators avoided a sweep at home and will again play for their postseason lives in Game 5 in Montreal on Friday night.

Craig Anderson, for the second straight game, made coach Dave Cameron's decision to switch goaltenders look good. He turned aside 28 shots and has stopped 75 of 77 shots since Andrew Hammond turned into a pumpkin during the first two games of this series.

The Canadiens lead the best-of-seven series 3-1. Is it over?

Of course not. Game 5 is Friday. Didn't you just read that?

But how likely is it that the Senators can come back and win this series?

Here are a handful things that need to transpire for Ottawa to have a shot:

1. Carey Price, the presumptive Hart Trophy winner, has to lose four straight games

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Price hasn't lost four games in a row all season; not four in regulation, not three in regulation and one in overtime, not four in a shootout. Price has not left the ice after a loss four straight times, period. 

If you're wondering about the Canadiens themselves, no, they have not lost four straight at any point this season.

For a team to come back from a 3-0 deficit, it needs some sort of vulnerability in net at the other end of the ice. Price's worst game in this series was Game 1, when he stopped 30 of 33 shots (.909) and a man nicknamed after a cartoon sandwich thief couldn't take advantage.

The only goal Price allowed Wednesday was a perfectly placed wrist shot by Mike Hoffman through an equally terrific screen by Mika Zibanejad.

"We need to get bodies in front of him (Carey Price) and make it hard for him to save it," Hoffman said afterward, as noted by The Associated Press. "More times than not if he sees the puck he’s probably going to save it. Mika did a great screen for me there and if he wasn’t there it would probably not go in."

"We weren’t going to win four games here tonight," said Hoffman. "It’s one. We’re moving on to the next one now."

For the Senators to make magic happen, they'd need a goaltender who can match Price save for save. And that's not likely to...wait, that just happened.

2. Craig Anderson has to be nearly flawless in Games 5 through 7

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And he can be. And he has been. Anderson is quietly one of the best postseason goaltenders around.

In 25 playoff games, Anderson has a .930 save percentage. Since 2009, the year of Anderson's first postseason berth, only Tim Thomas has a better save percentage among goaltenders with at least 25 games (Tuukka Rask is percentage points behind Anderson). Price is at just .919 over that time, so it's not as though the Senators don't have a puncher's chance with Anderson.

"I think it’s just a matter of will power. That’s what it comes down to, just sheer determination to go out there and do the job," Anderson said after the game. "I had a lot to prove after sitting out for so long and being out with injury. You just want to come back and do your best and that’s what I’m trying to do."

With Hammond carrying the water over the final two months, Anderson is fresh and over the injury that allowed Hammond to take the reins. Anderson also had a .923 save percentage in 35 regular-season games, so the Senators have a guy in net who's capable of outdueling Price.

3. A key Canadiens player has to suffer an injury along the way

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There have been two recent comebacks from down 3-0 to win a series; Philadelphia overcame Boston in the second round in 2010 while Los Angeles rallied to beat San Jose in 2014. In the salary-cap era, a 3-0 deficit likely has more to do with one team getting some bounces than one team being utterly dominant.

When the Bruins blew their lead, they lost David Krejci to injury in Game 3; when San Jose squandered its lead, the Sharks lost Marc-Edouard Vlasic for the series during Game 5.

Price, P.K. Subban and Max Pacioretty are the Canadiens' key players. All due respect to Nathan Beaulieu (upper body injury), but the series isn't turning because of his unfortunate absence.

As long as the Habs' big guns stay healthy, they'll be fine.

4. The Senators need to win the possession battle at five-on-five

In Game 4, Ottawa had 60.9 percent of the even-strength shot attempts, but in the previous three games, Montreal was the team that had more than 50 percent of those attempts. More often than not, the Canadiens were losing the battle but also winning the game because of Price; during the first three games of the series, Price didn't have to offset any even-strength flaws.

The Senators have to at least make it difficult on the Canadiens at five-on-five, and they did that in Game 4. They can't ask Anderson to steal the final three games of this series.

5. So can the Senators really do this?

In the words of former captain Daniel Alfredsson, probably not. But it's not as far-fetched as it may seem; after all, an underdog rallied from a 3-0 series deficit less than a year ago. The Senators lost two of the first three games in overtime. If Hammond had made just one more difficult save, this series could be tied at 2-2.

It will take a miracle. Not a major miracle, like water into wine; a minor miracle, like wine in a box.

But as long as Price is in net and the Habs don't lose a top-six forward or top-four defenseman, it's just a matter of time before Montreal closes out the Senators.

All statistics via NHL.com. Advanced statistics via Natural Stat Trick and War-on-Ice.

Dave Lozo covers the NHL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @DaveLozo.