Myth Busting Key 2015 NFL Draft Prospects

With less than two weeks to the 2015 NFL draft, it is time to bust some myths about some of the most interesting, and polarizing prospects in this entire class. In many cases, these perceptions come from the disconnect that naturally occurs between what NFL teams know and believe, and what draft media and pundits believe is reality.

Most of these myths originate from the public. Even the most connected draft writer only gets tidbits of what NFL teams are thinking. And we all understand that a little bit of information can be a dangerous thing. It creates these mysterious situations that leave us wondering how much of this is true for the league, and how much of it is just true for everyone else.

Let’s see if we can bust a few of these myths.

Jameis Winston Is More "NFL Ready" Than Marcus Mariota

Doug Benc/Associated Press

If you have read any amount of mock drafts, you have probably read this one. The prevailing opinion is that the Florida State quarterback is more NFL-ready than Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota.

All you have to do is a quick Google search for “Jameis Winston more NFL ready” and you will be rewarded with a litany of experts and otherwise intimating that Winston is better equipped to come into the league and play well early.

But is that really the goal? The reality is that Winston’s skill set affords whichever team that drafts him the opportunity to more easily wedge him into an existing offense. But why do NFL teams feel this sense of nostalgia to the past? The only reason Mariota isn’t as NFL-ready is because there aren’t enough coaches willing to go all-in on an offense that plays to his strengths.

Can an offense like that work? If you ask Philadelphia Eagles head coach Chip Kelly, he would say yes. He has been able to massage a good portion of that Oregon offense into the Eagles playbook with quarterbacks that can’t hold a candle to Mariota in terms of athleticism.

If you want another example, look to the Washington Redskins in 2012. The Washington head coaches tore as many pages out of the Baylor playbook as they could, and crammed them into the Washington game plan. Quarterback Robert Griffin III responded with over 4,000 yards of offense and 27 total touchdowns.

A lazy offensive coordinator will favor Winston because putting him on the team means less change. But if you are a fan of Mariota, hope and pray he goes to a team with a forward-thinking offense coordinator and makes the former Oregon star just as NFL-ready as Winston.

No More First-Round Running Backs

John Bazemore/Associated Press

Has the running back position been de-valued by the NFL? This seems to be a notion that is making the rounds. The reason being, there was no first-round running back selected in 2014 or 2013. That sounds significant at first glance, but let me offer a bit of perspective.

Going back, the next draft that was minus a first-round running back was 1963. In every draft from 1963-2012 at least one running back was taken in the first. Are the past two seasons a trend, or simply outliers?

Put me down for outliers. Even if you accept that the role of the individual running back has been de-valued in terms of carries, the rushing game has not. In 2014, 13 running backs topped 1,000 yards rushing, which is significant.

Once you factor in that a running back is one of the easiest positions to acclimate to the NFL, the risk/reward of drafting one in the first round is a smart move. So with that, I expect the running backs to get back in the first-round game with at least one, and possibly two backs coming off the board early.

Shane Ray Can’t Play Football with Those Measurables

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

If you are one to bow at the altar of metrics and analytics, then you have likely already taken your scouting report of Missouri EDGE Shane Ray and run it through the shredder. But if you haven't yet, please read on.

The reason being is when Ray performed at the Missouri pro day; his performance wasn’t up to par compared other top EDGE players but what was expected of him? NFL.com’s Mike Mayock was down on Ray’s triangle numbers as a whole.

On the other hand, Jeffri Chadiha of ESPN.com painted a different story, even disputing the times. Really? Is this what the draft world is using to gauge what kind of pro this young man will be?

Even if this young man isn’t the next Lawrence Taylor, the notion that hand-timed drills run on a bad toe is more important than film is, to quote my grandfather, balderdash. Put on the tape and watch all the things this kid can do in spite of these terrible triangle numbers.

If Ray’s scores were from the combine, they would and should carry more weight. If his scores were done at 100 percent health, they would be far more relevant. When I watch Ray, the two players that come to mind for me are Baltimore Ravens linebacker Terrell Suggs and Indianapolis Colts linebacker Robert Mathis. Neither guy stood out in their triangle numbers but both have carved out exceptional careers through hard work and effort.

Guys Falling Because of Character Concerns

Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports

The notion of character red flags is a slippery slope. The nature of a character concern can run the gamut from something as simple as a failed drug test, to a pattern of habitual criminal behavior.

But what does it all mean to the NFL? The truth is I have no idea. It seems that every team and every situation is taken individually, and there is no accounting for precedent at all. This makes predicting where these top talents will land all the more challenging.

However, one thing history has told us, if you can play football, the league is far more forgiving of your transgressions. In this draft, Oklahoma wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham, Nebraska EDGE Randy Gregory and Washington cornerback Marcus Peters are the poster children for the continuum of offenses teams have to weigh out. 

These are the guys that benefit the most by the parts of the draft process most of us are never privy to. Background checks by teams, investigations and those offseason interviews. Pundits and fans want to vilify these guys when whatever they did falls into a taboo category. But the truth is, that doesn’t matter. It only matters if the teams think they can still get the most out of these young men on Sundays and hope they can keep their stuff together the other six days of the week.

As much as many want to ding these guys in their rankings because of these concerns, the fact is much of the league doesn’t view it as nearly as big of a problem as we do. The moral high ground doesn’t exist in the NFL like it does in regular society.

This Class Has Lots of Developmental Quarterbacks

LM Otoro/Associated Press

Everyone wants to be right. And when it comes to the NFL draft, everyone wants to be right about the next great sleeper quarterback pick. If you had a first-round grade on Russell Wilson back in 2012, you are likely still bragging about that one. And if you had a first-round grade on Tom Brady back in 2000, just go ahead and give me those Power Ball numbers now.

However, if you are hunting for that guy in this class of quarterbacks, you might want to save your boastful predictions for 2016. Beyond Winston and Mariota, is there really a quarterback in this group worth getting excited about? I’ll concede UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley has some fascinating tools, but they will likely get him over drafted, so he doesn’t really apply.

With the league seemingly less concerned about really developing quarterbacks, are any of these other guys really opening eyes around the league as potential starters? If you really have to work to rationalize why a late-round quarterback should get a shot, you are just as well passing on this group altogether. Spend your picks on some of the real depth in this draft, and sign the quarterback as an undrafted free agent.