Assessing All 30 MLB Teams' Postseason Chances Thus Far in 2015
Hope springs eternal. That's the refrain at the beginning of the 2015 MLB season.
Technically, it's still spring. But already, a number of teams have giant metaphorical forks sticking out of their backs. The calendar has yet to flip to May, but the early results suggest that certain clubs are cooked.
While a team like the Milwaukee Brewers has face-planted out of the gates, there are also squads like the New York Mets that have shattered expectations thus far. The big question is whether the Mets and others will be able to sustain their strong starts.
After combing through pitching stats, lineup production, each squad's injury situation and the landscape of every division, here's a rundown of all 30 MLB teams' postseason chances at this early juncture. Each club earns a percentage from zero to 100, but some unfortunate franchises just defy numerical classification.
Houston Astros
1 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: 5 percent
Don't look now, but the 8-7 Houston Astros are in first place in the American League West.
Surprisingly, the Astros have been cruising without the help of some of the club's most prominent players. Scott Feldman has been entirely too hittable, with a 5.09 ERA in three starts, and mashers George Springer, Evan Gattis and Chris Carter all check in with averages under .167.
At the same time, it's not like the Astros have built up some impressive lead in the division. Currently, the five teams in the West are separated by just two games.
Los Angeles Angels
2 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: 65 percent
Last year, the Los Angeles Angels racked up 98 wins, which was the highest total in baseball.
If manager Mike Scioscia's team is going to come close to replicating that record and once again winning the AL West, the rotation will have to wake up. So far, Matt Shoemaker and Jered Weaver have been major disappointments at the Big A. Shoemaker owns a 6.46 ERA after three starts, while Weaver checks in at a mark of 5.24.
Oakland Athletics
3 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: 25 percent
The Oakland Athletics starting rotation has certainly been doing its part.
As Joe Stiglich of CSN California notes, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, Oakland was the first team ever to record five shutouts in the opening 12 contests.
Unfortunately for the Athletics, the team's defense and bullpen have had some major issues. Oakland ranks first in the AL with 15 errors, and the relief corps has already piled up four losses. Failing to catch the ball and coughing up late leads are not exactly hallmarks of a playoff-bound team.
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Seattle Mariners
4 of 30The Squad's Postseason Chances: 50 percent
With eight home runs, Nelson Cruz has definitely been providing the right-handed pop that the Seattle Mariners absolutely needed. He's actually gone yard as many times as both the Milwaukee Brewers and the Minnesota Twins.
It's been the starting staff that has been holding the M's back in the opening weeks. The crew has a 5.59 ERA, which is the second-worst in baseball. Plus, Felix Hernandez and J.A. Happ are the only starters who have even collected a win.
Texas Rangers
5 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: Not happening
For a second season in a row, the Texas Rangers are dealing with some major injury problems. Yu Darvish is done for the year as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, and Derek Holland is out until at least mid-June with a shoulder problem, per Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News.
When a team is down its top two starters, the offense needs to step it up. That hasn't happened at Globe Life Park. Regulars Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus, Rougned Odor and Shin-Soo Choo are all swinging at a clip of .188 or worse.
Chicago White Sox
6 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: 33 percent
With the Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals also jostling for the top spot in the AL Central, the Chicago White Sox won't have an easy path to the postseason.
If the White Sox are to keep pace, the starting staff is going to need to do a much better job of keeping the club in games. Outside of lefty ace Chris Sale, the starters have made a habit of putting the club in a bad spot.
On a positive note, a potential X-Factor has arrived on the South Side in the form of Carlos Rodon. The No. 3 overall pick from the 2014 MLB draft will be working out of the pen. His first go-around was a bit bumpy, as the left-hander allowed two runs in 2.1 frames. Despite the rocky debut, manager Robin Ventura sees a bright future for the 22-year-old.
“He can roll with it and get it back and be ready to go,” said Ventura, per Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune. “His background, he’s a confident and talented kid. That’s why he ended up here.”
Considering that Rodon went from the draft to the big leagues in less than a year, it's easy enough to understand his skipper's support.
Cleveland Indians
7 of 30The Squad's Postseason Chances: 33 percent
This April, Trevor Bauer has been one of the biggest breakout stars in the game.
The 24-year-old began the season with nine hitless innings spread across his first two starts and has allowed only two runs overall in three outings. As Paul Hoynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group points out, 18 of Bauer's 19 innings have been scoreless.
The emergence of Bauer is a big boost to the Tribe and the team's playoff hopes. Along with Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, Bauer gives the Cleveland Indians the makings of a nasty one-two-three combo.
Detroit Tigers
8 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: 70 percent
If Dave Dombrowski calls you to make a trade, just hang up because you're about to get fleeced.
The Detroit Tigers president, CEO and general manager acquired Shane Greene in a three-team swap with the New York Yankees and the Arizona Diamondbacks this winter, and the right-hander has been lights out since arriving in Motown. In 23 innings, Greene has yielded just a single earned run.
Meanwhile, in the late innings, Joakim Soria has provided some much-needed stability to the club's wobbly pen. The vet is 5-for-5 in save opportunities.
At the plate, Miguel Cabrera is clearly back to 100 percent. The first baseman is hitting .367. However, Victor Martinez's hobbled left knee remains a cause for concern for the Tigers, as Chris Iott of MLive.com reports.
Kansas City Royals
9 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: 60 percent
The Kansas City Royals have picked up right where the club left off at the end of 2014. So far, the two brightest spots for the Royals have been the lineup and the bullpen.
The 12-4 AL Central team owns a .301 average, the best mark in baseball. Remarkably, the team's group of relievers has somehow managed to be even better than it was a season ago. The pen has the lowest ERA in baseball at 0.52. In 16 games, the relief crew has yielded just three runs.
Minnesota Twins
10 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: Not happening
Entering the season, there was one giant bullet point right at the top of the Minnesota Twins' organizational to-do list: get better production from the starting rotation.
So much for that.
Ervin Santana has already earned himself an 80-game ban for testing positive for the steroid Stanozolol. Then there's Ricky Nolasco. The veteran has made just a single start this season and is currently working his way back from elbow inflammation, per Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. Without those two arms, the Twins rotation ranks No. 23 in ERA
The bats haven't been doing much, either. Minnesota is languishing in the No. 27 spot in runs.
Baltimore Orioles
11 of 30The Squad's Postseason Chances: 60 percent
The Baltimore Orioles are the reigning champs of the AL East, but that's no guarantee that the team will remain on the throne.
One player who's doing all he can to help the O's repeat as division champs is Adam Jones. The center fielder has been on fire in 2015, posting a .424 average and connecting on five home runs.
On the mound, Ubaldo Jimenez has been surprisingly effective. After a nightmare campaign in 2014, the right-hander owns a 2.30 ERA through his first three starts.
Boston Red Sox
12 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: 40 percent
Going into the season, the big knock on the Boston Red Sox was that the club didn't have an ace.
Forget an ace—at this point, the team doesn't even have a serviceable big league rotation. The group has a combined ERA of 5.42, which is the second-worst mark in the AL.
Such underwhelming starting pitching puts way too much pressure on the offense—even one as fearsome as Boston's is.
New York Yankees
13 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: 25 percent
With four home runs already, Alex Rodriguez has been generating all sorts of buzz in the Bronx.
While the powerful start for the 39-year-old has provided an unexpected boost to the New York Yankees offense, the team's playoff hopes hinge on the right elbow of Masahiro Tanaka.
The recent results for the Japanese righty have been highly encouraging for the AL East club. In his past two starts, Tanaka has given up just a single earned run.
Tampa Bay Rays
14 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: 5 percent
The Tampa Bay Rays have been the unluckiest team in baseball on the health front. Currently, the Rays have 10 players on the shelf. The starting rotation is especially dinged up, as Alex Cobb, Matt Moore, Drew Smyly and Alex Colome are all on the disabled list.
To expect Tampa Bay to make a playoff run with so many hobbled starters is a big request.
Toronto Blue Jays
15 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: 40 percent
The Toronto Blue Jays can flat-out rake.
Headlined by the likes of Josh Donaldson, Jose Reyes and rookie Devon Travis, the Blue Jays rank No. 1 in runs and are tied for first in homers.
However, the pitching staff threatens to once again do the Blue Jays in. The trio of Daniel Norris, Aaron Sanchez and Drew Hutchison all have ERAs north of 5.14.
One weapon the club has now that it didn't have a season ago is 20-year-old phenom Miguel Castro. The right-hander has the upside to be a late-inning game-changer for Toronto.
Arizona Diamondbacks
16 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: 5 percent
Before the season began, the expectations for the Arizona Diamondbacks were low—really low.That's just what happens when a team reels off 98 losses.
It's still awfully early, but the revamped D-backs look far better in 2015. The biggest difference is that the rotation is actually stringing together quality starts. Josh Collmenter is miscast as an ace, but he's posted a more than respectable 3.38 ERA. As a group, the staff ranks No. 10 in the NL in that department.
Pitching is the foundation of big league success, and the D-backs arms are clearly trending in the right direction.
Colorado Rockies
17 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: 5 percent
Scoring runs won't be an issue for the Colorado Rockies.
The linchpin for the Rockies will be the performance of the starting rotation. Last year, the group was the worst in the NL with a 4.89 ERA. This year, there's more reason for optimism thanks to the early season success of Eddie Butler and Tyler Matzek.
Colorado's chances are hurt by the fact that there are plenty of talented teams in the NL West. The Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres both have clearly superior starting staffs, and the San Francisco Giants are the reigning champs.
Los Angeles Dodgers
18 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: 75 percent
The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen was supposed to be a mess.
Apparently, Joel Peralta, Yimi Garcia, Juan Nicasio and the rest of the group didn't get the memo.
Last year, the late innings were the Dodgers' downfall. That just hasn't been the case in 2015. As Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register notes, the pen allowed just one run on seven hits while racking up 26 strikeouts in 20.1 innings during a recent six-game homestand.
If the Dodgers have solved the club's bullpen mess, the rest of the NL is in big trouble.
San Diego Padres
19 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: 65 percent
Last year, the San Diego Padres couldn't buy a run.
After a crazy-busy offseason, that's all changed. With new additions Matt Kemp and Justin Upton wasting no time settling in at Petco Park, the Pads rank No. 1 in runs in the NL. The pitching staff has been rolling along too, as the starting staff has the fourth-lowest ERA in the Senior Circuit.
Simply put, the Padres are scoring a ton of runs and keeping the opposition off the board. That's a recipe for success.
San Francisco Giants
20 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: 25 percent
As recent history has made abundantly apparent, it's never wise to write off the San Francisco Giants.
The club's early play in 2015 is making it tempting to disregard that advice.
The Giants have already careened through an eight-game losing streak and are sitting in last place in the NL West.
It also remains to be seen just when Hunter Pence, who is working his way back from a broken arm, will return to the lineup. According to Jimmy Durkin of the Bay Area News Group, manager Bruce Bochy isn't banking on having the right fielder back in the lineup by the original target date of May 1.
On the positive side, the Giants began to show signs of life by sweeping past the rival Los Angeles Dodgers in a three-game set.
Chicago Cubs
21 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: 40 percent
After an offseason of nonstop buzz, the Chicago Cubs are living up to the hype early in 2015.
Surprisingly, it's been the veteran Jon Lester who has been the biggest disappointment at Wrigley Field. The $155 million lefty hasn't been remotely ace-like in his first three starts for the Cubs. So far, Lester has a 6.89 ERA.
With the Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals also playing in the NL Central, the division is shaping up to be the most competitive in baseball. Lester has to turn around his slow start ASAP if the Cubs want to keep up in the chase.
Cincinnati Reds
22 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: 20 percent
The Cincinnati Reds are a difficult team to peg.
In 2015, the Reds will be clawing for a postseason spot with the likes of the St. Louis Cardinals, the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Chicago Cubs. With the Cardinals and the Pirates both having made the playoffs a season ago and the Cubs the most-hyped team in baseball, the Reds have become the forgotten contender.
As May approaches, Cincinnati is right in the midst of the playoff conversation. One player who's ready to help the team make some noise is Joey Votto. After injuries ruined his 2014, the first baseman has been mashing in the opening weeks of the new campaign. Already, Votto has six home runs.
Milwaukee Brewers
23 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: Not happening
Considering the tailspin ending to 2014, it didn't seem like things could get any worse for the Milwaukee Brewers.
It has.
The Brew Crew have begun the season with a 3-13 record and already trail the first-place St. Louis Cardinals by eight games. According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, owner Mark Attanasio and general manager Doug Melvin aren't ready to can skipper Ron Roenicke just yet.
"Mark and I talk every day. We haven't talked about Ron at this point," said Melvin. "We've talked about the players. Why are the players not performing? Our goal is to get the players to perform."
"At this point" is the key phrase from Melvin. After the second-half slump and the April slide, the Brewers are hurdling toward a rebuild. If the Brewers brass decides to kick such a plan into action, Carlos Gomez would be a monster trade chip.
Pittsburgh Pirates
24 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: 50 percent
The starting staff has been dealing for the Pittsburgh Pirates. The group is third in the NL in ERA and ranks second in strikeouts.
Gerrit Cole has certainly impressed in 2015, posting a 2.65 ERA. The 24-year-old continues to cement his status as one of the premier young hurlers in the game.
The Pirates have the look of a team that should be a wild-card front-runner, but the offense still has some work to do to make that happen. For now, key cogs Andrew McCutchen and Josh Harrison are both still struggling to find their swings.
St. Louis Cardinals
25 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: 85 percent
The St. Louis Cardinals don't have the best record in the bigs, but the NL Central squad is the best all-around team. The lineup is stacked with quality hitters, and then there's that pitching staff, which has posted an MLB-best 2.06 ERA.
Manager Mike Matheny has an array of weapons to choose from in the bullpen, and the rotation is filled with a mix of established veterans and high-upside arms. Carlos Martinez has the stuff to be a major X-factor for the Cards in 2015. In his first three outings, the Dominican has posted a 2.08 ERA and limited the opposition to a .152 average.
St. Louis has advanced to at least the NL Championship Series in each of the past four seasons, and the team has all the pieces needed to make it five this October.
Atlanta Braves
26 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: 5 percent
After selling off the likes of Justin Upton, Evan Gattis, Craig Kimbrel and Jason Heyward, the Atlanta Braves appeared to be punting on the 2015 season.
So far, that hasn't happened, as the team owns an 8-7 record.
Still, the strong start looks like more of an aberration than a sign of what is to come. After a 6-1 start, manager Fredi Gonzalez's club has dropped six of the club's last eight contests.
Miami Marlins
27 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: 5 percent
A 5-11 start was not in the script for the Miami Marlins.
The Fish's awful beginning could end up costing manager Mike Redmond his job. When asked about the skipper's status by Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald, owner Jeffrey Loria offered a response that sounded like it was right out of an episode of HBO's Game of Thrones: “I’ve got one thing to say. I’m not interested in palace intrigue. We’ve got to win games.”
That's far from a ringing endorsement for Redmond. The primary factor that keeps the Marlins' playoff hopes alive is the consideration that Jose Fernandez could return to save the day this summer.
New York Mets
28 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: 45 percent
Everyone knew the New York Mets could pitch. The question surrounding the 2015 edition of the team was whether the Mets could hit.
So far, the answer has been "yes." Through the opening weeks of the season, New York has scored the second-most runs in the NL.
The club has already ripped off an 11-game win streak, which is a franchise record, per Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.
Philadelphia Phillies
29 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: Not happening
After they finished 23 games out of first place in 2014, not a lot was expected of the Philadelphia Phillies this season. In the opening weeks of the campaign, the Phils have done absolutely nothing to disprove the lowly expectations.
One of the most troubling developments for the 5-11 team is that Chase Utley has been doing a spot-on Ryan Howard impression. In 15 games, the veteran second baseman is batting .120.
Washington Nationals
30 of 30
The Squad's Postseason Chances: 80 percent
It hasn't been the smoothest of starts for the dinged-up Washington Nationals.
The team sits at 7-9, but it's worth noting that the Nats began the season with Denard Span, Jayson Werth and Anthony Rendon all on the shelf. Span and Werth have both returned to the lineup, and Rendon should be back on the diamond soon.
According to Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post, Rendon, who is recovering from a sprained MCL in his left knee, has just begun a rehab assignment.
With the lineup getting back to 100 percent and the super rotation still in place, the Nats remain the heavy favorites to snag the NL East title.
Note: All stats and videos courtesy of MLB.com. All salary information courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts on BaseballProspectus.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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