Randy Gregory Shaping Up to Be 2015 NFL Draft's Biggest 1st-Round Wild Card

The last couple of weeks before the NFL draft are usually short on hard news and long on speculation. With workouts in the rearview mirror and nothing to do but wait, draftniks fire away with mock draft after mock draft, trying to predict how the first round will play out on April 30.

When it comes to this year's top prospects, one young pass-rusher stands head and shoulders above the rest when it comes to rendering those predictions exercises in futility. Some view him as a top-five prospect, the best edge-rusher in a draft loaded with them. Others yet think he'll fall out of the first round altogether.

Draft analysts, Nebraska's Randy Gregory isn't making life easy for you.

To see evidence of the chasm of disparity that exists in the draft community, one need look no further than the six mock drafts at NFL.com. Only two of their experts agreed on a landing spot for Gregory (Lance Zierlein and Bucky Brooks, who slotted Gregory to the New Orleans Saints at No. 13).

Writer	Team	Pick No.
Charles Davis	Cincinnati Bengals	21
Daniel Jeremiah	Washington Redskins	5
Charlie Casserly	Washington Redskins (via CLE)	12
Lance Zierlein	New Orleans Saints	13
Brian Baldinger	New York Jets	6
Bucky Brooks	New Orleans Saints	13

Daniel Jeremiah doesn't see Gregory making it out of the top five. Colleague Charles Davis? He has Gregory out of the top 20 altogether, going to the Cincinnati Bengals at 21:

"This is truly a wild-card pick, but we knew that he would slide because of the failed drug test at the NFL Scouting Combine," Davis said. "Gregory's talent is immense, and Cincinnati is a great landing place."

Of course, as Davis alluded to, the canyon into which Gregory's draft stock has tumbled is mostly self-dug in the eyes of some.

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Back in March, after testing positive for marijuana twice while in Lincoln and then finding out about his third failed test at the combine, Gregory told the NFL Network's Kim Jones (via Greg Bedard of The MMQB) that his drug use was in the past.

"It's not a struggle for me every day [now], it really isn't," Gregory said. "In the past, hell yeah, it's been a struggle. It really has been. Now, I'm focused on my dream."

But as Bedard wrote:

"

So according to Gregory, he was so focused on his dream that he smoked pot in December and then tested positive at the combine, which was the biggest job interview of his career. They call the combine drug screening the "idiot test." You have one test to pass before entering the NFL; Gregory flunked. Now he will likely enter the NFL in the substance abuse program, which triggers more testing and a lower bar to get suspended. That will give teams serious pause.

"

That just isn't smart.

Unfortunately, that also wasn't the only red flag that Gregory sent up at the combine.

Gregory checked in at the combine at a wiry 6'5" and 235 pounds. It was certainly not the end of the world, but a turn-off for any 4-3 teams who may have been thinking about Gregory as a defensive end. Gregory bulked up slightly for Nebraska's pro day, but according to Bleacher Report's Dan Pompei that weight has come off—and then some:

Insert the joke about a pot smoker losing weight wherever you're comfortable—I'll wait.

Granted, Gregory can always add weight, and his frame certainly seems capable of supporting it, but the fact that he's actually gone the other direction only serves to pigeonhole Gregory further. At this point, even some teams looking at Gregory as an outside linebacker are probably having second thoughts about how he'll hold up at the point of attack.

Then they pop in tape of Gregory in action, and get even more concerned. But these concerns are about missing out on Gregory's talent.

Gregory's burst and athleticism fly off the screen the way he flew around tackles and tight ends in college. And he certainly played heavy enough in Lincoln, faring surprisingly well at the point of attack against players much heavier than himself.

Bleacher Report NFL Draft Lead Writer Matt Miller saw Pro Bowl potential, comparing Gregory to Aldon Smith of the San Francisco 49ers:

"

Gregory isn't as filled out as Smith was coming out of Missouri, but they're both raw athletes with long arms, big hands and big athletic upside. Like Smith, Gregory projects best as an outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense, but he has the skills to bump down to defensive end in passing situations.

"

Of course, that's what NFL teams are afraid of—that Gregory is a little too much like Smith.

Given that, former NFL scout Greg Gabriel thinks Gregory's days of top-10 consideration have likely come and gone:

"

Randy Gregory has become a "wild card" selection. Some clubs have dropped him. Others are staying put. Will drop out of top 10 for sure

— Greg Gabriel (@greggabe) April 20, 2015"

Gabriel's probably right. Think about it. The teams picking in the top 10 are hardly coming off successful seasons. They have holes to fill all over the place. More than one will enter 2015 with a new regime in place.

Those regimes don't want to kick things off by whiffing on their first pick.

Make no mistake, it's a real possibility with Gregory. In just the past few years, we've seen a pair of young wide receivers in Justin Blackmon and Josh Gordon squander their immense talents because they just could not stay out of trouble.

Some young men just won't get out of their own way, and Gregory's third failed drug test ahead of the combine isn't exactly a confidence-builder.

Still, the farther Gregory drops on April 30, the more that pendulum begins to swing in the opposite direction.

As we get into the second half of Round 1, there are going to be teams that will stop comparing Gregory to the Smith who keeps getting in trouble and start comparing him to the Smith who racked up 42 sacks over his first 43 games.

Whether it's Cincinnati at No. 21, the Arizona Cardinals at No. 24 or the Indianapolis Colts at No. 29, there are plenty of teams in desperate need of pass-rushing help who could be willing to look past Gregory's past in favor of the promise of his future.

With that said, it's pretty unlikely that Gregory will make it out of the first round altogether. As one NFC scouting director told Zierlein, there's just too much raw talent present with Gregory.

"He's super raw, but those physical tools are through the roof. That's why you pay coaches."

It's a quandary, and one that's no easier for NFL teams to puzzle through than draftniks. It's going to take a general manager with the confidence to pull the trigger and a coach who's able to make the most of Gregory's physical gifts.

In that respect at least, a draft-day slide may not be the worst thing that could happen to Gregory.

After all, generally speaking, it's the teams at the back end of the draft who know what they're doing.

Gary Davenport is an NFL analyst at Bleacher Report and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and the Pro Football Writers of America. You can follow Gary on Twitter at @IDPSharks.