Kentucky Derby 2015: Race Schedule and Predictions for Top Contenders

A year after California Chrome came one race away from claiming the Triple Crown, this May's Kentucky Derby could bring a similarly talented horse into the national limelight.  American Pharoah has been the presumptive Derby favorite for months now, despite missing the Breeders' Cup with a hoof injury, and simply reaffirmed that status with a dominant Arkansas Derby victory.

However, the Bob Baffert-trained horse won't be able to cruise at Churchill Downs, with primary challengers Dortmund and Carpe Diem serving as potential spoilers.  Both have multiple graded stakes wins under their belt and have displayed the type of stamina necessary to push Pharoah throughout the entire 10-furlong race.

Looking at the Derby schedule and these top contenders, read on for win, place and show predictions for May 2.

What: 2015 Kentucky Derby

When: May 2, 2015

Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky

Post Time: 6:24 p.m., ET

TV: NBC

*All race information via KentuckyDerby.com.

Race Predictions

Win: American Pharoah

That Pharoah was able to pull up down the stretch of the Arkansas Derby and still coast to a win is a frightening reminder that he is clearly the world's top three-year-old.  That doesn't preordain him to a Churchill Downs win, of course, especially given that the other top Derby contenders didn't run in Arkansas.

Still, Pharoah is undefeated in four career graded stakes races, including three Grade I victories.  Critics may point to a relatively mediocre field he defeated in his last race, but in reality, the time he posted would have held up against nearly any competition, which points to a potentially historic Derby run:

"

ICYMI, American Pharoah's Arkansas Derby win rated 128 on the TImeform form-rating scale. High enough to win last six renewals of #KyDerby

— Mark Milligan (@markmill_73) April 12, 2015"

Moreover, American Pharoah will have the benefit of Victor Espinoza as his jockey.  Espinoza rode California Chrome to Derby and Preakness victories last year, and the last time a Baffert-trained horse won the Kentucky Derby was in 2002, when Espinoza rode War Emblem.

Despite a six-month layoff due to injuries, Pharoah has since reestablished himself as the top three-year-old following victories in his two starts leading up to Triple Crown season.  But while he might be an overwhelming favorite against a typical field, this year's crop of contenders should push him more than many might expect.

Place: Dortmund

Like Pharoah, Dortmund is a Baffert-trained horse who is undefeated in four graded stakes races.  Dortmund also possesses bloodlines that augur Triple Crown success, as his sire was Big Brown, winner of the 2008 Derby and Preakness Stakes.

Dortmund's last race came at the Grade I Santa Anita Derby, which capped off a dizzying four-wins-in-four-months stretch.  Indeed, whereas Baffert has largely been conservative in managing Pharoah's race schedule, he's been unafraid to unleash heavier work on Dortmund.  That manifested itself again during the tuneups at Churchill Downs, as Dortmund took the unusual step of running "bullet" work—rather than running the track by himself, he split two horses to simulate racing conditions:

Though Pharoah is a slight favorite on most boards, there's a reasonable chance that Dortmund could become a co-favorite by race time.  The horses have never raced head-to-head and have typically towered over inferior competition, so given their equally impressive undefeated resumes, it's a little difficult to differentiate between the two.

If there's a separating factor, it might be that Dortmund's jockey Martin Garcia has never won the Kentucky Derby.  Garcia has just one Triple Crown win, which came at Pimlico with Lookin at Lucky in 2010.  However, Garcia did ride Bayern to victory at the Breeders' Cup Classic in November, upsetting favored Shared Belief, so there's certainly precedence for him to pull off a similar feat.

Show: Carpe Diem

The Todd Pletcher-trained horse doesn't quite have the spotless record of his two biggest rivals, having finished "only" second at the Breeders' Cup Juvenile race in November.  However, after rebounding with victories in the Tampa Bay Derby (Grade II) and Blue Grass Stakes (Grade I) since losing to Texas Red, Carpe Diem appears the likeliest to break up the two-horse hegemony at the top.

Carpe Diem has actually already caught a critical break.  Pletcher could saddle as many as five horses at Churchill Downs, but when assigning jockeys, he gave his top contender arguably the best jockey in the field:

Indeed, John Velazquez, the all-time leading money-earner among North American jockeys, has won three Triple Crown and 11 Breeders' Cup races in his storied career.  Velazquez does have experience riding Carpe Diem to victory, as he was in the saddle during his last victory at the Blue Grass Stakes.

Apart from potential dark horses like Materiality and Mubtaahij, this really does shape up as a three-horse race right now.  That won't necessarily play out on race day, but Carpe Diem stands out as easily the likeliest horse to come out of left field and win the Triple Crown's first leg.