Preakness 2015: Early Predictions Post-Kentucky Derby
That 141st Kentucky Derby you just watched? Man, that’s old news.
All that hype and buildup now carries over to the second jewel of racing’s elusive Triple Crown, the Preakness, which takes place Saturday, May 16, at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore.
American Pharoah carries the pressure and weight of a 37-year quest from Affirmed, the last horse to win the Triple Crown.
Every time Bob Baffert has won the Derby, he has subsequently won the Preakness. He did it with Silver Charm, Real Quiet and War Emblem. Can he do it with American Pharoah? Well, he has the jockey of his last Triple Crown hopeful in the irons, Victor Espinoza.
American Pharoah and his entourage play a large role in Preakness predictions, so let’s move this van to Baltimore for other predictions and news sure to take place in two weeks.
A Derby Runner Will Win the Preakness
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For the purposes of this statement, let’s include Rachel Alexandra as a Derby runner since she ran in the 2009 Kentucky Oaks the Friday before the Derby.
Every year since 2007, a Derby runner has won the Preakness Stakes. Further still, only one horse, Bernardini, won the Preakness without having prepped in the Derby. That was in 2006. Red Bullet in 2000 was the other new shooter to win the Preakness in the past 15 years.
That’s quite an amazing accomplishment. The fact that only two times in 15 years a new shooter has won shows just how resilient these horses can be. In 2006, Bernardini won in part because Barbaro broke his leg shortly after the race started. Who knows how the race would have shaken out?
So whether it’s American Pharoah, Dortmund or someone else, a Derby runner will win this race. Who else will join them?
The Tesio Winner Will Flounder
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Home-track hero Bodhisattva won the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico Race Course, the local prep for the Preakness Stakes. He won the 1 1/16th-mile race going wire-to-wire in a tepid time of 1:45.18.
He’s not an elite horse by any stretch, but the local horse always deserves a crack at the Preakness. If he should try to grab the lead against Firing Line, American Pharoah or Dortmund, it will prove exceedingly difficult.
Will he have an impact? Probably not. Kid Cruz, the winner of last year’s Tesio, finished eighth out of the 10-horse field. He did manage to finish just one place higher than eventual world-beater Bayern.
Gary Stevens Will Have an Impact
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Gary Stevens will have an impact in this race. If it’s not on Kentucky Derby runner-up Firing Line, it will be on someone else.
Hopefully Firing Line shoots for the Preakness. He was well-rested coming into the Derby, so he has more in the tank for the Preakness than perhaps even American Pharoah at this point.
Stevens told Churchill Downs in a press release following the Derby:
"Going into that first turn, he was pulling hard. I looked over and saw that Martin’s horse (Martin Garcia on Dortmund) was pulling just as hard as mine. I eased back off him a little bit and gave both horses some breathing room. He (Firing Line) was aggressive today. He was on it. Coming for home I thought I might get there, but it wasn’t to be. My horse showed his braveness today. He just got beat. I’m very proud of him.
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He showed he deserves to be in this group, and runner-up to American Pharoah is pretty darn good.
The Preakness will be a great fit for this son of Line of David. And if he’s there, Stevens, now 52, could break the record for the oldest jockey to win the Preakness. That was a 50-year-old jockey by the name of Gary Stevens in 2013.
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International Star Will Run Big After Missing the Derby
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For Ken and Sarah Ramsey, seeing their Kentucky Derby hopeful International Star have to scratch the morning of the Derby was, to put it mildly, a disappointment.
When the blacksmith took International Star’s shoe off, there was some heat coming off the hoof. That was enough to not risk the health of the horse, and it was the right move.
Ken Ramsey said in a statement:
"It’s a devastating blow to come this far. I thought I had a decent shot at winning the race. But it happened to A.P. Indy and a lot of other horses before. It’s bad news for the owners and the family that pinned so many hopes on finally getting to the other side of the racetrack (to the infield Kentucky Derby winner’s circle).
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With time, he’ll be even fresher and have a shot at the Black-eyed Susans.
Bob Baffert Will Saddle Three Starters
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Since the Illinois Derby was taken out of the Kentucky Derby points circuit, it has become a Preakness prep of sorts. And the winner this year was Whiskey Ticket, a three-year-old son of Ghostzapper.
Whiskey Ticket is owned by Michael Pegram, who has won the Preakness a few times, and trained by none other than our resident Triple Crown candidate Baffert.
American Pharoah is sure to go to the Preakness. Dortmund should go and set the pace and try to wire the field. And now Whiskey Ticket appears like a viable candidate as well.
Entering Dortmund and American Pharoah together was like a prize fight in and of itself.
“We were ready to rumble,” Baffert told The Associated Press after the Derby (h/t The Telegram).
Now a three-way prize fight? That’s playing with fire.
Divining Rod a New Shooter Who Can Make Some Noise
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Divining Rod, an impressive winner of the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, was an early committed runner for the Preakness Stakes.
It’s hard to say just what his impact will be without first knowing who else will possibly contend. Thanks to Preakness.com, we do know that he is confirmed for Lael Stables, the owners who entered Barbaro in the 2006 Preakness.
Divining Rod, ridden by Julien Leparoux, showed the type of range you like to see in two-turn horses. He rated just off the pace on the rail, then swung out into the three-path to overtake the leaders and win the race.
He didn’t have the points to get into the Derby, but he gets his shot off a relatively long layoff to prove himself in the Preakness.
Todd Pletcher Will Skip the Preakness
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For all of Todd Pletcher’s Derby runners, 43 and counting, running in the Preakness never makes sense for him. As he sees it, why wheel a horse back on two weeks’ rest when he can wait five and run in the 12-furlong Belmont Stakes?
That’s how he won the Belmont in 2007 with the filly Rags to Riches and how he won it in 2013 with Palace Malice.
The Pletcher business plan is to win two-year-old races and get what appear to be somewhat average horses into the Derby. This looks good on paper, and owners continue to bring him very talented horses. Some of them, like Palace Malice, continue to run as older horses. Others ferry into retirement at a fairly young age.
It's just like what NBC's Randy Moss said: "He's a victim of his own success. He manages his horses so perfectly that he gets average horses into the Kentucky Derby."
No, we probably won’t see a Pletcher Derby horse in the Preakness even though Materiality or even the scratched Stanford seem like good fits. Pletcher will go to Belmont with a holster full of live horses ready for 12 furlongs.
American Pharoah Wins the Preakness
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I’ve said it all along, not because it sounds smart or Rasputin-ish, but because American Pharoah feels like the type of horse who can shoulder the burden of these races. The way he moves is so fluid and efficient. It simply takes him less energy to move over the same distance others struggle to cover.
Baffert has won four Derbys. In his previous three wins, each horse went on to win the Preakness. He lost the Triple Crown by less than a length in 1997. He lost it by a dispiriting nose in 1998. He lost it in 2002 when War Emblem broke poorly at the gate.
Now? He has a lightly raced colt who came back from running 10 furlongs like he went on a two-minute lick. Yes, he had to earn it. Firing Line made him lean into the bridle with more rigor than usual.
American Pharoah should have his way again at Pimlico, much like California Chrome did a year ago. Only this time, American Pharoah comes in with less wear on his tires.
He can dictate the terms and see how the race unfolds. Victor Espinoza has been here two times before, and he’ll win his third Preakness—second in a row—with a third shot at the Triple Crown on the first Saturday in June.
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