Playing Fact or Fiction with All 30 MLB Teams' Early-Season Records
Nothing sparks overreactions from baseball fans across the country like a small sample size over the course of the first few weeks of the season.
Ten games into the season, the sky is falling for some projected contenders, while a handful of surprise teams might as well start printing playoff tickets now. Or so the reaction of the masses would lead you to believe.
As a fun way to put teams' early-season records into perspective, the following extrapolates each team's current winning percentage out over a full 162 games in order to see what kind of record it would finish with if it maintained its current pace.
From there, each team's start was pegged as fact or fiction, based on whether its extrapolated win total was plus or minus eight wins of where I think it will finish the year.
Why eight games? Simple: Eight games gave me roughly a 5 percent margin of error in either direction, allowing for a clearly defined range with which to work.
At the end of the day, this was not meant to be anything more than a fun look at how things would shake out if everyone kept winning at its current rate—so hopefully you can take it for what it is and treat it as such.
Arizona Diamondbacks
1 of 30
2015 Record: 4-5
Full-Season Pace: 72-90
Win Total Range: 64-80
Team Outlook
The Arizona Diamondbacks remain a work in progress here in the early stages of Dave Stewart and Tony La Russa running the show in the front office, and at this point, it's hard to see them legitimately contending in the NL West.
While they have no shortage of starting pitching options, they are lacking in a proven front-line arm, and it's had to win without at least a couple of those. Top prospect Archie Bradley could help fill that role long-term, and he looked great in his debut, but expecting him to shoulder the load is asking too much.
Fact or Fiction: Fact
They might not finish as bad as the 98-loss team from a year ago, but below .500 seems like a reasonable expectation at this point.
Atlanta Braves
2 of 30
2015 Record: 6-3
Full-Season Pace: 108-54
Win Total Range: 100-116
Team Outlook
Just like last season, the Atlanta Braves have come out of the gates stronger than anyone expected, and it's thanks in large part to their pitching staff.
A patchwork rotation helped lead the team to a 17-7 start last season, and the Braves are off to a strong start in that department once again, ranking fifth in the NL with a 3.00 team ERA. The bullpen in particular has been rock solid, posting a 2.06 ERA and nailing down all five save chances it has seen.
Fact or Fiction: Fiction
After that 17-7 start last year, the Braves proceeded to go 62-76 the rest of the way, and they could be in for a similar drop-off this season. They may wind up being slightly better than expected, but there is no chance this team is winning 100-plus games.
Baltimore Orioles
3 of 30
2015 Record: 5-4
Full-Season Pace: 90-72
Win Total Range: 82-98
Team Outlook
Despite losing some key pieces, the Baltimore Orioles offense is once again leading the way in 2015, as the Orioles have posted an .813 OPS as a team and are averaging 5.22 runs per game.
Adam Jones (.406 BA, 1.303 OPS, 4 HR, 11 RBI) has done a good portion of the damage, but the team as a whole has flashed some impressive power once again, leading all of baseball with 15 home runs here in the early going.
Fact or Fiction: Fact
The Orioles are not going to run away with the AL East this time around, but there is no reason to think they won't at least be in the mix, especially once their pitching rounds into form.
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Boston Red Sox
4 of 30
2015 Record: 6-3
Full-Season Pace: 108-54
Win Total Range: 100-116
Team Outlook
The Boston Red Sox's lack of pitching was pointed to all offseason as a major cause for concern, and through nine games, they have done little to ease those concerns, ranking 28th in the league with a 4.75 team ERA and 29th with a 6.16 starter's ERA.
However, that offense that many pegged as the best in baseball has lived up to its billing as well, averaging 6.22 runs per game and leading the way during this hot start.
Fact or Fiction: Fiction
The Red Sox are still my pick to win the AL East, and that offense has looked great so far, but I just don't see them topping the 100-win mark.
Chicago Cubs
5 of 30
2015 Record: 5-3
Full-Season Pace: 101-61
Win Total Range: 93-109
Team Outlook
Despite a slow start from new ace Jon Lester and Kris Bryant beginning the season in the minors, the Chicago Cubs have come out of the gates strong in 2015, building some early momentum for the young club.
The relief corps deserves much of the credit, as the Cubs are currently tops in the National League with a 1.38 ERA, and it has done a great job keeping the team in games. That's set up more than one late-inning rally, and nothing sparks a team early like a come-from-behind win or two.
Fact or Fiction: Fiction
This Cubs team has a chance to be a legitimate contender this season, but in a tough NL Central and with a young roster, 93-plus wins might be pushing it.
Chicago White Sox
6 of 30
2015 Record: 3-5
Full-Season Pace: 61-101
Win Total Range: 53-67
Team Outlook
Swept by the Kansas City Royals to begin the season, the Chicago White Sox have gone 3-2 since, and they are now set for a big weekend series against another tough division foe in the Detroit Tigers.
No one area in particular stands out as a significant strength or weakness to this point, but the team does look to have some clear upside considering the slow starts of newcomers Adam LaRoche, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Samardzija. Once those three start playing up to their capabilities, the team should take a step forward.
Fact or Fiction: Fiction
The White Sox have their work cut out for them contending in a deep AL Central field, but even if they don't secure a playoff spot, it's still hard to envision them not at least hovering around .500 on the year.
Cincinnati Reds
7 of 30
2015 Record: 5-4
Full-Season Pace: 90-72
Win Total Range: 82-98
Team Outlook
The Cincinnati Reds offense was a mess last season, ranking ahead of only the San Diego Padres in team batting average (.238) and runs per game (3.67). So far this season, those numbers are almost identical (.218 BA, 3.67 RPG), but there is reason for optimism.
Joey Votto is again looking like an MVP-caliber player, while Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips have also made solid contributions. However, the bullpen has been a disaster, with four blown saves and a 4.55 ERA, and the starting rotation is still finding its footing beyond Johnny Cueto and Anthony DeSclafani.
Fact or Fiction: Fact
I'm still not sold on the Reds as legitimate contenders in the NL Central, but at the very least, they should be able to finish a few games over .500, so we'll call this fact on the low end of the win total range.
Cleveland Indians
8 of 30
2015 Record: 3-5
Full-Season Pace: 61-101
Win Total Range: 53-69
Team Outlook
The Cleveland Indians entered the season with some lofty expectations for the first time in a while, and after taking a series from the Houston Astros to start the year, they snapped a four-game losing streak with a win Wednesday.
With no regular hitting over .300 and the starting pitching duo of Zack McAllister and T.J. House struggling, there are some things that need to be sorted out. That said, the team's other three starters have looked great, with Trevor Bauer in particular turning head in his first two starts.
Fact or Fiction: Fiction
The Detroit Tigers are still my pick to win the AL Central, and the Kansas City Royals are going to be tough again too, but this is not an Indians team that will finish anywhere near 100 losses.
Colorado Rockies
9 of 30
2015 Record: 7-2
Full-Season Pace: 126-36
Win Total Range: 118-134
Team Outlook
We've heard this story before. The Colorado Rockies offense explodes to start the season, the pitching performs better than expected and the team jumps out to an early lead in the NL West only to come crashing down a few weeks later.
The Rockies are currently hitting an NL-best .301 and averaging 5.00 runs per game, while the pitching staff is also tops in the NL with a 2.41 ERA, though the team has blown a pair of saves and already made a change at closer.
Fact or Fiction: Fiction
The hot start is great, but does anyone really see this team coming anywhere close to maintaining a 2.41 ERA? A 3.73 FIP and abnormally low 8.1 percent HR/FB rate (via FanGraphs) both point to some significant regression to come on the mound.
Detroit Tigers
10 of 30
2015 Record: 8-1
Full-Season Pace: 144-18
Win Total Range: 136-152
Team Outlook
Sustained success is tough to come by in the league today, but the Detroit Tigers begin the year working on a string of four straight division titles.
The losses of Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello and a still-questionable bullpen were the big concerns, so an MLB-best 1.91 ERA to start the year has been a promising sign to say the least. The offense has been terrific as expected, but if newcomers Shane Greene and Alfredo Simon can keep pitching like the have, this team could be scary good.
Fact or Fiction: Fiction
Considering no team has ever won more than 116 games in a season, it's probably safe to assume the Tigers won't top 136. They do, however, look like the team to beat in the AL Central once again.
Houston Astros
11 of 30
2015 Record: 4-5
Full-Season Pace: 72-90
Win Total Range: 64-80
Team Outlook
The Houston Astros won 70 games last season, which marked a 19-win improvement over the previous year. Now, after a busy offseason, they are looking to take another big step forward here in 2015.
The pitching has been great so far, ranking eighth in the league with a 2.75 ERA, and Dallas Keuchel looks like the real deal after an out-of-nowhere breakout performance last year. However, the offense is hitting just .204, averaging 2.56 runs per game and has struck out a league-high 90 times in nine games.
Fact or Fiction: Fact
They may be a better team on paper, but there are still some clear holes for the Astros, and the AL West is as tough as any division in baseball. A few more wins than last season is possible, but a winning record may still be another year away.
Kansas City Royals
12 of 30
2015 Record: 7-1
Full-Season Pace: 142-20
Win Total Range: 134-150
Team Outlook
Despite winning the AL pennant last season, the Kansas City Royals were largely overlooked heading into the year, as many pegged their run last season as a team getting hot at the right time.
They've come out firing on all cylinders this year, as the offense is tops in baseball with a .322 batting average and has flashed some newfound power with 10 long balls. Meanwhile, the pitching staff has a 2.66 ERA, including 19.1 scoreless innings from the best bullpen in baseball.
"We need to stay right where we’re at,” starter Danny Duffy told Andy McCullough of The Kansas City Star. “It’s a long season. You hear that every day. We’re just keeping it all in front of us. I don’t think we’re really thinking about anything but executing right here and right now.”
Fact or Fiction: Fiction
I say fiction here only because the Royals are not going to win 130 games this season. This team is for real, and I'll wholeheartedly admit that I vastly underrated it heading into the year.
Los Angeles Angels
13 of 30
2015 Record: 4-5
Full-Season Pace: 72-90
Win Total Range: 64-80
Team Outlook
The Los Angeles Angels led all of baseball with 98 wins last season, and they have won two of three series so far in 2015. Those series victories just happen to be sandwiched around a sweep at the hands of the Kansas City Royals.
With the starters currently pitching to a 5.26 ERA, the return of Garrett Richards can't come soon enough for this team. The offense has been middle of the pack but should be fine long term—it's a matter of whether the staff can round into form.
Fact or Fiction: Fiction
They could have a hard time duplicating their 2014 success, but it would take an awful lot going wrong for the Angels to finish below .500 this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers
14 of 30
2015 Record: 6-3
Full-Season Pace: 108-54
Win Total Range: 100-116
Team Outlook
How do you replace the likes of Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez in the middle of your lineup? A .528/.595/.1.111 line and five home runs in nine games from Adrian Gonzalez seems to be doing the trick for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
He's obviously not going to maintain that pace, but with strong starts from newcomers Howie Kendrick, Jimmy Rollins and rookie Joc Pederson as well, the team should be just fine offensively. On the pitching side of things, getting Hyun-jin Ryu and Kenley Jansen healthy and Clayton Kershaw on track will go a long way.
Fact or Fiction: Fiction
We'll say fiction here, but by the smallest of margins. I think this Dodgers team wins the NL West and tops 90 wins but falls short of reaching the 100-win mark.
Miami Marlins
15 of 30
2015 Record: 3-6
Full-Season Pace: 54-108
Win Total Range: 46-62
Team Outlook
After a busy offseason building up the roster around Giancarlo Stanton, the Miami Marlins entered the season expecting to contend, but they dug themselves an early hole with a 1-6 start to the year.
The offense has managed just three home runs to this point, while the pitching staff has had to deal with a disastrous start from Mat Latos (2 GS, 4.2 IP, 17.36 ERA) and a shoulder injury to Henderson Alvarez. Not much has gone right to this point, but this team still has a ton of upside.
Fact or Fiction: Fiction
This won't be a 100-loss team, but the Marlins can't afford to dig themselves too big of a hole while they await the return of Jose Fernandez.
Milwaukee Brewers
16 of 30
2015 Record: 2-6
Full-Season Pace: 41-121
Win Total Range: 33-49
Team Outlook
It's been said to death, but the Milwaukee Brewers were in first place for 150 days last season, only to miss the playoffs. A hot start played a big role in that first-place run, and the Brewers have gone in the opposite direction to open 2015.
A 5.68 ERA from their starting pitching is troubling, and the offense has done little to help in scoring just 2.88 runs per game. The offense has the potential to be significantly better, especially if Adam Lind and Jean Segura continue their strong starts, but the pitching is a legitimate concern.
Fact or Fiction: Fiction
The Brewers were my preseason pick to finish in the NL Central cellar, but their current pace has them losing somewhere between 113 and 129 games. They won't be that bad, but the last-place prediction is looking solid.
Minnesota Twins
17 of 30
2015 Record: 2-6
Full-Season Pace: 41-121
Win Total Range: 33-49
Team Outlook
The Minnesota Twins have had the worst starting pitching ERA in baseball the past two seasons. While their current 6.02 starters' ERA ranks 28th rather than 30th, that's likely little solace for a team that continues to struggle on the mound.
The Twins offense was surprisingly good last season, ranking seventh in the league with 4.41 runs per game, but it has been nonexistent so far this year. Their .198 team average is the worst in baseball, and that has resulted in just 2.38 runs per game.
Fact or Fiction: Fiction
Barring a significant collapse by one of the other teams in the division, the Twins look like a safe bet to finish last in the AL Central for the fourth time in five seasons. This could be a 100-loss team, but it won't be quite as bad as its current pace.
New York Mets
18 of 30
2015 Record: 6-3
Full-Season Pace: 108-54
Win Total Range: 100-116
Team Outlook
After dropping the first two games of their series with the Atlanta Braves last week, the New York Mets have won four straight, and they have a good chance of extending that streak with four games against the struggling Miami Marlins.
As expected, pitching has led the way, as the Mets rank fifth in the league with a 2.65 ERA, even with Zack Wheeler sidelined and Jenrry Mejia suspended. An early trip to the disabled list for David Wright is concerning, though, as the team needs him healthy in the middle of its lineup.
Fact or Fiction: Fiction
Pitching alone should keep this Mets team relevant well into the second half, and if the offense can stay healthy and productive, this could be a playoff team. This is not, however, a 100-plus win squad.
New York Yankees
19 of 30
2015 Record: 3-6
Full-Season Pace: 54-108
Win Total Range: 46-62
Team Outlook
Alex Rodriguez has a .965 OPS, and with two home runs and seven RBI, Jacoby Ellsbury is working on a seven-game hitting streak. Meanwhile, the one-two punch of Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller have combined for eight scoreless innings.
That's the good. The bad?
The starting rotation has a 5.07 ERA and an MLB-low one quality start, while the offense has struggled outside of its 14-run outburst against the Boston Red Sox last Sunday.
Fact or Fiction: Fiction
The last time the Yankees lost 100 games in a season was 1912, when they were known as the New York Highlanders. This is not a playoff team, but it's not a historically bad team, either.
Oakland Athletics
20 of 30
2015 Record: 5-5
Full-Season Pace: 81-81
Win Total Range: 73-89
Team Outlook
From a statistical standpoint, it's hard to understand how the Oakland Athletics are not off to a better start this season. They rank fourth in the league with a 2.54 ERA, fourth with a .292 team average, fifth at 5.60 runs per game and second with a .349 average with runners in scoring position.
The simple explanation is that when they've been good, they've been outstanding, outscoring opponents 42-1 in their five victories. That throws off the numbers a bit but also speaks to the ceiling of this team when it's firing on all cylinders.
Fact or Fiction: Fact
I still have the A's picked to finish third in the AL West, but that doesn't mean a high-80s win total can't put them in the mix for the second wild-card spot.
Philadelphia Phillies
21 of 30
2015 Record: 3-6
Full-Season Pace: 54-108
Win Total Range: 46-62
Team Outlook
The scary thing about the Philadelphia Phillies' 3-6 start to the season is that they've probably played over their heads to this point.
A starting rotation that features the likes of Aaron Harang, Sean O'Sullivan, Jerome Williams and David Buchanan has managed to turn in five quality starts, with only one of those coming from ace Cole Hamels.
Offensively, the Phillies have been middle of the pack despite Grady Sizemore, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Ben Revere all hitting under .200 on the year. Howard in particular has looked absolutely lost at the plate, with 10 strikeouts in 27 at-bats.
Fact or Fiction: Fact
I've said it several times before, and my opinion has not changed—it will be a huge surprise if this Phillies team can manage to avoid 100 losses.
Pittsburgh Pirates
22 of 30
2015 Record: 3-6
Full-Season Pace: 54-108
Win Total Range: 46-62
Team Outlook
The Pittsburgh Pirates were swept by the Cincinnati Reds to open the season and shut out in back-to-back games to close out their recent series with the Detroit Tigers, and it's safe to say their season has not started as expected.
Outside of a rejuvenated Pedro Alvarez, the offense has been terrible, as the Pirates are hitting .207 as a team and averaging just 3.22 runs per game. That should change once guys like Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Josh Harrison get going.
The pitching has been solid, as the Pirates rank 10th in the league with a 3.26 team ERA and eighth with a 3.38 starters' ERA. Now they just need some support from their bats.
Fact or Fiction: Fiction
The Pirates have run into some good pitching in the early going this season, it's as simple as that. This still looks like a team with every opportunity to reach the postseason for the third consecutive year, and the Priates could push the Cardinals for the division title once they get going.
San Diego Padres
23 of 30
2015 Record: 6-4
Full-Season Pace: 97-65
Win Total Range: 89-95
Team Outlook
So far, so good for the overhauled San Diego Padres.
Their starting rotation is tops in the NL with a 2.43 ERA, while the offense ranks fifth in the league with a .278 average and third in the NL at 4.30 runs per game.
The new outfield of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Wil Myers has gone a combined 38-for-119 (.319 BA) with 10 doubles, three home runs and 18 RBI so far, anchoring the improved offensive attack.
Fact or Fiction: Fact
I still think the Dodgers win the NL West, but 90-plus wins and a home game in the Wild Card Round seem well within reach for the upstart Padres.
San Francisco Giants
24 of 30
2015 Record: 3-7
Full-Season Pace: 49-113
Win Total Range: 41-57
Team Outlook
After opening the season 3-1, the San Francisco Giants have lost six straight heading into their weekend series with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Two terrific starts from prospect Chris Heston have given the starting rotation a big boost, but the starting rotation still looks considerably weaker than it was a year ago. Meanwhile, the offense has managed just 2.6 runs per game, and outside of Nori Aoki and Angel Pagan, no one has provided much in the way of consistent production.
Fact or Fiction: Fiction
I stand by what I said all offseason—the Giants won't contend for a playoff spot in 2015. However, they're not going to lose 110 games, either, and finishing somewhere around .500 looks reasonable.
Seattle Mariners
25 of 30
2015 Record: 3-6
Full-Season Pace: 54-108
Win Total Range: 46-62
Team Outlook
The Seattle Mariners entered the season as a trendy pick to win the AL pennant, but the early returns have had them looking more like a cellar-dweller than a postseason favorite.
The offense is hitting just .210 and averaging 3.56 runs per game, while the starting rotation has posted an MLB-worst 6.43 ERA through nine games. Taijuan Walker (7.1 IP, 14 ER) has been the biggest culprit, but others like James Paxton, Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager are all off to slow starts as well.
Fact or Fiction: Fiction
Guys like Cano and Seager will be just fine, and the offense should still be significantly improved over a year ago. However, the young duo of Walker and Paxton need to turn things around quickly, as they still look like the X-factor for just how good this team can be.
St. Louis Cardinals
26 of 30
2015 Record: 4-3
Full-Season Pace: 93-69
Win Total Range: 85-101
Team Outlook
A postseason team in 11 of the past 15 season, the St. Louis Cardinals look to have all the pieces in place to be playing in October once again in 2015.
Avoiding another slow start offensively like the one they endured last season will be important, as the pitching has been terrific, ranking third in the league with a 2.43 ERA. Strong starts from Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez are a great sign alongside the consistency of Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn.
Fact or Fiction: Fact
It's business as usual for the Cardinals, as their big league roster has no glaring holes and they have enough depth to overcome most any injury. Another 90-plus-win season and NL Central title repeat look very possible.
Tampa Bay Rays
27 of 30
2015 Record: 5-4
Full-Season Pace: 90-72
Win Total Range: 82-98
Team Outlook
The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been one of the biggest surprises so far this season. It's not lighting the world on fire, but a .729 team OPS, nine home runs and 4.44 runs per game have certainly exceeded expectations.
That's helped take some pressure off of the Rays' patchwork rotation as the team awaits the returns of Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly and, eventually, Matt Moore. The Rays' 4.26 team ERA is 20th in the league, but once the rotation gets healthy, they could have one of the best staffs in the American League.
Fact or Fiction: Fact
I'm not quite ready to call them legitimate contenders, but I'll admit I may have underrated the Rays heading into the season. At the very least, a winning record seems within reach, with potential for more if the offense can keep it up.
Texas Rangers
28 of 30
2015 Record: 4-6
Full-Season Pace: 65-97
Win Total Range: 57-73
Team Outlook
After dealing with one injury after another on their way to 95 losses last season, the Texas Rangers have already been hit hard in that department once again this season.
With Yu Darvish out for the season following Tommy John surgery and Derek Holland recently hitting the 60-day disabled list with shoulder issue, their rotation is already a mess, even with the hot start of Nick Martinez (2-0, 0.00 ERA, 14.0 IP).
Fact or Fiction: Fact
The AL West is expected to be tough this season, and while the Rangers offense should be better than last season, their lack of front-line pitching would appear to have them ticketed for the cellar once again.
Toronto Blue Jays
29 of 30
2015 Record: 5-4
Full-Season Pace: 90-72
Win Total Range: 82-98
Team Outlook
Unless injury strikes, offense won't be an issue for the Toronto Blue Jays this season. It's their pitching staff that will determine whether they can legitimately contend in the AL East.
So far, that pitching staff ranks 21st in the league with a 4.33 ERA, but that is accompanied by an MLB-worst 5.13 FIP (per FanGraphs). The bullpen is still a work in progress, but the emergence of rookie Miguel Castro in the closer's role has helped immensely.
Fact or Fiction: Fact
I'm still not convinced the Blue Jays will have the pitching to win the division, but even a mediocre staff could be enough for them to top 85 wins with that offense.
Washington Nationals
30 of 30
2015 Record: 3-6
Full-Season Pace: 54-108
Win Total Range: 46-62
Team Outlook
With Anthony Rendon, Denard Span and Jayson Werth all sidelined to start the season for the Washington Nationals, the offense has hit just .212 and averaged 3.78 runs per game. While that was not a huge surprise, and is easily fixed by getting those guys healthy, the pitching staff is a different story.
The starting rotation that some viewed as potentially all-time great has pitched to a 4.21 ERA so far, putting the team 15th in the league. Stephen Strasburg (10.2 IP, 6.75 ERA) and Jordan Zimmermann (8.1 IP, 8.64 ERA) in particular have struggled mightily.
Fact or Fiction: Fiction
This has to be sweet for all of those people calling the Nationals overrated all offseason. It's not been a pretty start, that's for sure, but I'm by no means ready to write this team off just yet.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference and current through Wednesday, April 16.
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