Chargers Would be Crazy to Trade Philip Rivers

Have you heard the one about the veteran quarterback with the expiring contract, the hot draft prospect with the Heisman Trophy, the accomplished team that lacks stability and the unaccomplished team that reeks of desperation? 

Here's how it goes:

• Philip Rivers is that veteran quarterback. His career spans 11 years and counting with the San Diego Chargers, with whom he's made five Pro Bowls. With Rivers under center since 2006, the Bolts have won four division titles and as many playoff games. But the 33-year-old is entering the final year of his contract, and he has stated, per U-T San Diego's Kevin Acee, he doesn't plan on signing a new deal before this one expires. 
• Marcus Mariota is that hot prospect. He had three years as a starter at Oregon and a Heisman to cap a hell of a college career. The signal-callers is now projected by many to be a top-five pick when the NFL draft gets underway April 30. 
• The Chargers are that accomplished team with an uncertain future. Not only is the franchise working with the Oakland Raiders to put together a plan for a stadium in Los Angeles as it attempts to gain funding for a new venue in San Diego, but this is a team that has failed to win 10 games in five consecutive seasons. And now its most important and popular player—Rivers—might not be interested in playing in L.A. 
• The Tennessee Titans are that desperate team. Six consecutive nonplayoff seasons and no postseason victories since 2003. Now, coming off their worst season in two decades, they hold the second overall selection in the draft, placing them in an ideal spot to nab Mariota. 

The connections are clear. 

If the Chargers are a franchise in flux looking to start from scratch, potentially in a new location, Rivers—at his age and in his contract situation—arguably becomes an expendable bargaining chip. On the other hand, the Titans possess the pick that could bring a team like San Diego a player like Mariota, and Rivers would probably give them—and keep that desperation factor in mind—a better chance to win right now.

Rivers, who is from a town in Alabama about 100 miles south of Nashville, has worked closely with current Titans head coach and former Chargers offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, as well as current Titans offensive coordinator and former Chargers tight ends coach Jason Michael. Whisenhunt was his coordinator when Rivers experienced a huge resurgence in 2013, raising his passer rating from 88.6 to 105.5 (ranking fourth in football). 

And despite the fact it has a five-time Pro Bowl quarterback within reaching distance of his prime and aren't scheduled to be on the clock until the 17th pick of the first round, the Chargers brass spent Tuesday working out Mariota in Eugene, Oregon, according to U-T San Diego's Michael Gehlken. 

For what it's worth, of 26 mock drafts published this week registering on Walter Football's mock draft database, more than half have Mariota being picked first or second, and all but one have him going in the top 10. Nobody has him falling close to the 17th spot, which means something's up. 

But it's important to keep in mind that smoke doesn't always equal fire in this league. The Bolts could simply be performing due diligence in case Mariota drops or in case the Titans have reached out with a proposal, and in the process they could be attempting to remind Rivers that most of the current alternatives to San Diego aren't exactly appetizing. The Bolts have had just one losing season since acquiring Rivers via trade in the 2004 draft (2012's 7-9 mark), so the grass might not be greener elsewhere. 

Ed Zurga/Associated Press

But if indeed the Chargers are legitimately considering a deal that would give them Mariota in the No. 2 spot in exchange for Rivers, they may need a reality check. 

Actually, somebody has to relay to the Spanos family, general manager Tom Telesco and head coach Mike McCoy that doing so would be reckless, arguably idiotic. 

Sure, the Bolts have failed to win in recent years, but they haven't failed to win because of Rivers. They've failed to win despite him. 

Dating back to the start of 2013, he's the sixth-highest-rated passer in the league, and during the same span he trails only Drew Brees when it comes to completion percentage. He ranks fifth when it comes to yards per attempt and 12th in terms of touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Category	Total	Rank
Comp. %	68.0	2nd
TD-INT ratio	63-29	12th
YPA	7.9	5th
Passer rating	99.5	6th

And despite dealing with rib and back injuries in 2014, he ranked well above average in terms of accuracy percentage, deep accuracy and accuracy under pressure at Pro Football Focus. 

It's remarkably hard to replace that type of production at the quarterback position, and there's really no rush for the Chargers to attempt doing so. As many as seven quarterbacks who are in line to start or compete for starting jobs in 2015 are older than Rivers, a list that includes reigning Super Bowl MVP Tom Brady, 2013 league MVP Peyton Manning, 2014 yardage leader Brees and 2014 passer-rating champion Tony Romo.

Quarterback	Age	2014 starts	2014 rating	Pro Bowler?
Peyton Manning	39	16	101.5	Yes
Tom Brady	37	16	97.4	Yes
Drew Brees	36	16	97.0	Yes
Josh McCown	35	11	70.5	No
Carson Palmer	35	6	95.6	No
Tony Romo	34	15	113.2	Yes
Eli Manning	34	16	92.1	No
Philip Rivers	33	16	93.8	No

Excluding kickers and punters, quarterbacks have the longest shelf lives in football. In terms of passer rating, two of Manning's best three seasons took place beyond his 35th birthday, four of Brady's five best seasons occurred after he turned 33 and Romo's best season took place at the age of 34.

That doesn't mean Rivers is bound to keep getting better, but there's little indication he's on the verge of a great decline. 

You're much better off gambling that Rivers will stick around and age like fine wine than taking a chance on a quarterback early in the draft, at least if recent precedents are any indication. 

The vast majority of recent early-round draft picks at the position have failed to become reliable starters. Among the 17 quarterbacks drafted in Round 1 since 2009, only four—Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and Ryan Tannehill—have clearly delivered. And even those guys have had their issues.

Quarterback	Starts	Rating
Blaine Gabbert	0	100.0
Andrew Luck	16	96.5
Ryan Tannehill	16	92.8
Mark Sanchez	8	88.4
Robert Griffin	7	86.9
Matthew Stafford	16	85.7
Brandon Weeden	1	85.7
Teddy Bridgewater	12	85.2
Cam Newton	14	82.1
EJ Manuel	4	80.3
Jake Locker	5	70.9
Blake Bortles	13	69.5
Christian Ponder	1	45.8
Johnny Manziel	2	42.0
Sam Bradford	0	N/A
Josh Freeman	0	N/A
Tim Tebow	0	N/A

And as I pointed out in a study conducted earlier this offseason, drafting quarterbacks in the first round really has been a crapshoot for much of the last quarter-century. This is admittedly subjective, but my breakdown of first-round quarterbacks since the turn of the century should still get the point across: 

#	Superstars	Successful starters	Failures	Jury's still out
1	Andrew Luck	Cam Newton	Brandon Weeden	Blake Bortles
2	Aaron Rodgers	Matt Stafford	Jake Locker	Johnny Manziel
3	Eli Manning	Matt Ryan	Blaine Gabbert	Teddy Bridgewater
4	Philip Rivers	Joe Flacco	Christian Ponder	EJ Manuel
5	Ben Roethlisberger	Jay Cutler	Sam Bradford	Ryan Tannehill
6		Alex Smith	Tim Tebow	Robert Griffin III
7		Carson Palmer	Mark Sanchez
8		Michael Vick	Josh Freeman
9		Chad Pennington	JaMarcus Russell
10			Brady Quinn
11			Vince Young
12			Matt Leinart
13			Jason Campbell
14			J.P. Losman
15			Byron Leftwich
16			Kyle Boller
17			Rex Grossman
18			David Carr
19			Joey Harrington
20			Patrick Ramsey

Among the 40 quarterbacks taken in the first round this century, even if we're to assume that all six of the "jury still out" pivots will become solid starters (which is very unlikely), there'd still be 20 successful stories and 20 failures. And even if we liberally call Newton, Stafford, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Carson Palmer "superstars," no more than 25 percent of first-round signal-callers slide into that category.

If we focus only on top-five picks and expand back to 1990, the odds are still close to even: 

#	Superstars	Successful starters	Failures	Jury's still out
1	Andrew Luck	Cam Newton	Sam Bradford	Blake Bortles
2	Eli Manning	Matt Stafford	Mark Sanchez	Robert Griffin III
3	Philip Rivers	Matt Ryan	JaMarcus Russell
4	Donovan McNabb	Alex Smith	Vince Young
5	Peyton Manning	Carson Palmer	David Carr
6	Drew Bledsoe	Michael Vick	Joey Harrington
7		Steve McNair	Tim Couch
8		Kerry Collins	Akili Smith
9			Ryan Leaf
10			Heath Schuler
11			Rick Mirer
12			Jeff George

Only two men on that 28-name list—Peyton and Eli Manning—have won a Super Bowl.

"If Mariota has the potential to be an elite NFL quarterback—and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are reportedly considering making him the No. 1 pick over Florida State’s Jameis Winston—then moving on is the best route for the Chargers," wrote Acee in a column Tuesday. 

But every pivot drafted in the first few rounds has "the potential to be an elite NFL quarterback." We just watched a Super Bowl in which a signal-caller who was drafted 199th overall beat one who was drafted 75th. The league's highest-rated passer this season was Tony Romo, who wasn't drafted at all. In 2013, Nick Foles led the category, who, along with Russell Wilson, was selected in the third round in 2012.

Acee notes that if the Chargers attempt to call Rivers' bluff regarding Los Angeles and the team moves, they could be left in a much worse spot if Rivers decides to retire rather than sign a new deal or a tender in 2016. And that's true, but the 2016 and 2017 drafts will also contain quarterbacks, some of whom will boom and some of whom will bust. 

It's not as though Mariota (6'4", 222 lbs) is the perfect quarterback prospect. If that were the case, he'd be a clear No. 1 pick, but there's still a strong sense around the league that the Bucs will indeed pick Winston first overall, per ESPN's Adam Schefter. Mariota is smart, fast (4.52 40-yard dash) and athletic, and it appears he can make all of the necessary throws. But his pocket presence isn't where it needs to be, and he might not have the build to take the types of hits he'll likely be exposed to as a young NFL quarterback. 

Ryan Kang/Associated Press

There's just no telling how Mariota's professional career will unfold, while we can predict within a fairly reasonable range how Rivers' 2015 season will play out. That might explain why the rebuilding Titans would be willing to part with a No. 2 pick in order to land one of the league's oldest starting quarterbacks. 

The Chargers aren't stupid, right? They know that the risk here isn't worth the potential reward, but they're covering their bases in case Mariota falls into a range that is more reasonable. But more than anything, they're bluffing. 

Right? 

“I don’t like Philip as our QB, I love him,” Telesco wrote to Acee in a text message less than a month ago. “And I’ll go to war with him.”

Ballsier things have been said prior to players being traded, but this continues to look like nothing more than a leverage-related smokescreen and a procedural checkup in case things blow up on draft day. 

At least that's all it should be. Otherwise, the Chargers run the risk of becoming a punchline by selling a proven commodity for a chance to shoot craps. You'd think they'd know better. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon