Will Extra Rest Help Roger Federer Contend at the 2015 French Open?

Roger Federer won his lone French Open title in 2009. Rafael Nadal has won the title nine times in the past 10 years. Federer hopes a tiny tweak to his schedule can change his luck at Roland Garros. 

This year, Nadal looks more vulnerable than venerable, having bowed out of Miami and Indian Wells prior to the semifinals. Meanwhile, Federer skipped the Miami Open. Will the additional time off help Federer in his quest for another title at Roland Garros?

Federer returns to action next week in Monte Carlo. Despite a decade of dominance, Federer's clay-court nemesis, Nadal, is not the clear favorite to win the 2015 French Open. According to Oddschecker, Nadal and Novak Djokovic are 3-2 favorites to win the event. 

Federer is given the same odds, 18-1, as Kei Nishikori. Oddsmakers consider Stan Wawrinka, who has never advanced beyond the quarterfinals at Roland Garros, a better bet (16-1) than Federer. 

Although Federer skipped Miami, he has an ambitious clay-court schedule. He plans to play five clay-court tournaments, including the back-to-back Masters events in Madrid and Rome. He added Istanbul, a 250-level clay-court event, to his schedule. According to Kamakshi Tandon of Tennis.com, Federer said he substituted Istanbul because it's "a city I've never been to, a country I've never been to, so I just thought it would be a nice mix-up."

Opting out of doing back-to-back, 10-day, hard-court Masters events in the U.S. allowed Federer to rest his aging body in preparation for a grueling clay-court run. 

Ranked No. 2, Federer needs to be fresh and fit if he hopes to fend off Nadal or a motivated Djokovic.

Federer's desire for a second French Open title is well noted. However, Djokovic desperately seeks his first. It's the one Grand Slam tournament that has eluded the Serbian. Seems odd, but could the oddsmakers be on to something? Could Djokovic be a bigger obstacle than Nadal at the French Open? 

Neither Djokovic nor Federer want the French Open record as some asterisk in their legacy. Although Federer has the one French Open title in his 17-Slam portfolio, winning a second would strengthen his credentials for greatest of all time.

Federer has never won the calendar-year Grand Slam. Only two men, Rod Laver and Donald Budge, have won all four tournaments in the same year. With each Slam played on different surfaces—Plexicushion in Australia, clay at Roland Garros, grass at Wimbledon and DecoTurf at the U.S. Open—the feat is more difficult. Winning the career Slam is the more modern measurement for greatness. 

It's not that Federer is a bad clay-court player. In fact, Nadal's triumphs have obscured Federer's clay-court prowess. Federer has a 76.2 winning percentage on clay. He's won 10 clay-court titles. His record at Roland Garros, 61-15, is slightly better than 80 percent. 

Still, Federer plays his best tennis on grass, where his winning percentage is 87.3. 

Last year, after he lost to Ernests Gulbis in the fourth round at the French Open, Federer spoke with reporters about why he's had more success on the grass at Wimbledon than the clay at Roland Garros:

"

Usually one plays well on grass because one has to do so much on clay to put pressure on the ball that it's necessary to hit hard.  I feel the same for myself.  When you move on the quick ground, it's difficult to take the speed from the opponent.  On clay it's different, and that's probably the reason I play rather well on grass after the clay season.

"

Secure in his grass-court bona fides, Federer seeks to get the French-clay monkey off his back. He decided to change his schedule, understanding that going about business as usual would most likely yield the same results. 

Will this strategy to cut short the hard-court spring swing to immerse himself in European clay pay off? Federer's red-clay road to Roland Garros begins in Monte Carlo. Perhaps a little less wear and tear will help him reach his desired destination.