2015 NFL Draft: The Worst-Case Scenario Every Team Must Avoid
The NFL draft is one of the most unpredictable sporting events of the year. For months, we make mock drafts and try to simulate “realistic” scenarios. But then the draft arrives, and there are a multitude of surprising picks.
We’re going to look at the worst-case scenarios that every NFL team must avoid in the draft. Some teams will need to get aggressive to ensure they get their targets. Others might opt to sit back and cross their fingers.
Either way, let’s look at the worst-case scenario for each team. We considered the current roster situation and recent offseason to construct these situations.
What is your worst-case scenario for your favorite team? Let me know in the comments section.
Arizona Cardinals: Missing Out on Top Linebackers
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Armed with the 24th overall pick in the first round, the Arizona Cardinals may find themselves in a tricky spot. Even with middle linebackers Sean Weatherspoon and Kevin Minter in the fold, neither should be viewed as a reliable starter for 2015.
There is a need for a quality linebacker on the Cardinals defense. But at pick No. 24, UCLA linebacker Eric Kendricks could be off the board. If he is gone, there isn’t another inside linebacker who has enough value for the pick.
If the Cardinals wait until the second round, they could miss out on Clemson linebacker Stephone Anthony as well. Thus, the worst-case scenario is that the Cardinals miss out on the top two or three inside linebackers by waiting or force the pick at No. 24.
Atlanta Falcons: Elite Pass-Rushers Aren’t on the Board
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The Atlanta Falcons desperately need to add more quality pass-rushers to their defense. Head coach Dan Quinn will likely look to replicate the Seattle Seahawks’ defensive formula. That means length and speed off the edge.
Sitting with the eighth overall selection, it’s very likely a top edge-rusher will fall to them. But their worst-case scenario is that Clemson’s Vic Beasley, Missouri’s Shane Ray, Nebraska’s Randy Gregory and Florida’s Dante Fowler Jr. are all off the board.
If that happens, the Falcons may need to settle on a project player such as Kentucky’s Bud Dupree. Going with the best player available wouldn’t be bad, as they could add Washington cornerback Marcus Peters to a secondary that needs more help. But the biggest question mark on this team would continue to be an issue.
Baltimore Ravens: Waiting Until Day 3 to Add a Receiver
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It’s been a rough offseason for the Baltimore Ravens so far. Despite losing talented players to free agency, this is one of the best organizations in football when it comes to evaluating talent. Still, the Ravens could easily see their worst-case scenario happening.
With needs including running back, defensive end and cornerback, the Ravens could wait to add a wide receiver. But if they wait until Day 3, they’ll likely miss out on the run of wide receivers. The talent available in the fourth round is much less likely to come in and contribute in the first year.
The Ravens would be best served to curb their appetite for a running back until the later rounds. By adding a dynamic receiver in the first two rounds, quarterback Joe Flacco will have an easier time producing.
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Buffalo Bills: Selecting Bryce Petty in the Second Round
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After an aggressive offseason under new head coach Rex Ryan, the Buffalo Bills have few holes to plug. Unfortunately, their biggest weakness is the most important position in football. Although the quarterback tandem of EJ Manuel and Matt Cassel doesn’t need to produce an elite starter, neither should invoke confidence.
At the 50th overall pick, the top quarterback available very well could be Baylor’s Bryce Petty. The Bills would fulfill their worst-case scenario if they select him here.
Petty is the ultimate risk at quarterback. He’s going to be 24 by season’s start and already has the injury history of a retired player. He’s cracked two bones in his spine, has dealt with concussions and tore his MCL in high school.
Then factor in the jump from Baylor’s simplified offense to an NFL scheme. Drafting a good quarterback is already a long shot. Taking a risk on Petty will be the ultimate leap of faith into his arm talent.
Carolina Panthers: Staying with Current Tackle Situation
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Even after adding offensive tackles Michael Oher and Jonathan Martin this offseason, the Carolina Panthers need to invest in the offensive line. Despite having a movie based off his story, Oher has graded negatively every season since 2009 by Pro Football Focus. He shouldn’t be viewed as a long-term starter.
Upgrading left tackle Nate Chandler should be the goal with the 25th overall pick. Chandler allowed seven sacks and 22 quarterback hurries in 2014. For quarterback Cam Newton’s sake, that quality of play shouldn’t be accepted.
Carolina’s worst-case scenario is that LSU’s La’el Collins, Pittsburgh’s T.J. Clemmings, Florida’s D.J. Humphries and Oregon’s Jake Fisher are all off the board by their pick. This offense desperately needs to protect Newton and become more productive. That won’t be accomplished unless a new tackle is added.
Chicago Bears: Forcing a Quarterback Pick
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Barring a trade up to get either Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston or Oregon’s Marcus Mariota, the Chicago Bears will be unable to upgrade the quarterback position. Jay Cutler hasn’t been the franchise guy they desire, but he hasn’t been a complete train wreck either.
The worst-case scenario for the Bears will happen if they decide they must select UCLA’s Brett Hundley or Baylor’s Bryce Petty in the first or second round. Although Hundley has great athletic traits, his erratic accuracy and poor pocket presence never improved in college. There’s not much reason to think that changes in the NFL.
Cincinnati Bengals: Waiting Until Day 3 to Address Defensive Tackle
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When the Cincinnati Bengals got star defensive tackle Geno Atkins back from injury last season, they likely expected a bigger impact from him. As the season progressed, Atkins got better, but the Bengals need to give him some help in 2015.
The defensive tackle duo of Domata Peko and Brandon Thompson was not promising. Adding a dynamic tackle who can eat blocks for Atkins, Carlos Dunlap and Michael Johnson should be a top priority.
If the Bengals wait until the fourth round, they’ll be hard-pressed to find a player who can contribute year one. Although this is a deep defensive line class, the Bengals should add a run-stuffing 1-technique tackle.
Cleveland Browns: Top 5 Receivers Gone at No. 19
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For the second consecutive year, the Cleveland Browns will have two picks in the top 32 overall. This is another opportunity for the franchise to add multiple impact players. The Browns' worst-case scenario is they cannot add an impact receiver with the No. 19 pick.
The Browns could justify going receiver with the 12th overall pick as well. They could beat the second-tier receiver run by doing so. But, with needs at right tackle and along the defensive line, the value of a receiver could push their need back to No. 19.
At No. 19, West Virginia’s Kevin White, Alabama’s Amari Cooper and Louisville’s DeVante Parker are likely to be gone. UCF’s Breshad Perriman and Oklahoma’s Dorial Green-Beckham could also go between Cleveland’s two picks. That could leave Arizona State’s Jaelen Strong on the board, but he is a sharp drop-off from the top five receivers in this class.
Dallas Cowboys: Kevin Johnson and Marcus Peters Are Gone by No. 27
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For the Dallas Cowboys to replicate their surprising 2014 season, they must continue to inject talent into their defense. After losing linebackers Justin Durant and Bruce Carter to free agency, one could easily argue that should be their biggest need.
I don’t lean that direction considering the state of the secondary. Cornerbacks are one of the premium positions in the league—not linebackers. Thus, the worst-case scenario for the Cowboys is that cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Kevin Johnson are off the board by No. 27.
Peters’ talent suggests he certainly should be gone by that point, but he has off-field concerns that could drop him. Johnson is a clean prospect off the field, but a myriad of teams in front of Dallas need cornerback help. If both are gone, the likelihood Dallas can get a day-one starter drops immensely.
Denver Broncos: Jake Fisher Is off the Board at No. 28
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The Denver Broncos are another Super Bowl contender that has lost significant talent this offseason. When former offensive lineman Orlando Franklin left for greener pastures, a huge hole opened on the right side of the line.
Denver now needs an instant plug-and-play right tackle if Louis Vasquez returns to right guard. Oregon tackle Jake Fisher is the perfect scheme fit for Denver.
Should Fisher be gone, the Broncos will have a tough time finding a more qualified player to start day one. Fisher brings elite athleticism and solid technique to the position. The former Ducks starter also has experience playing at left and right tackle.
Detroit Lions: D.J. Humphries Is off the Board at No. 23
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The Detroit Lions have done a nice job of filling holes after the departure of defensive tackles Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley. Adding Haloti Ngata certainly helps fill that void on the defensive line.
Now the Lions should look to upgrade their offensive line. Right tackle LaAdrian Waddle allowed five sacks and 12 quarterback hurries in just 561 snaps, per Pro Football Focus. He also committed six penalties. If he can be replaced, the Lions offense can finally build a reliable running game.
Florida’s D.J. Humphries would be the ideal replacement. He has the frame (6'5", 307 lbs), athleticism and potential to be a franchise tackle for the Lions. He can play left tackle, which would allow Riley Reiff to move to the right side. That betters two positions for the Lions.
Green Bay Packers: Forcing the No. 30 Pick on a Linebacker
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When you lose two starters at one position, that’s usually a major negative. But when the Green Bay Packers released linebackers A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones, they gave themselves a chance to overhaul a weakness.
Moving Clay Matthews to middle linebacker was a short-term role, so the Packers must add an impact talent. If UCLA’s Eric Kendricks is gone by the 30th overall pick, then the Packers would likely have to force a linebacker there instead.
The alternative is to trade down and select either Clemson’s Stephone Anthony or Miami’s Denzel Perryman. Collecting extra picks is a good idea instead of getting a bad value on good but not great prospects.
Houston Texans: Selecting UCLA Quarterback Brett Hundley at No. 16
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Coming off a resurgent 9-7 season, the Houston Texans are looking to take the next step. To reach the playoffs, this franchise must upgrade the quarterback position. Barring a trade up, UCLA’s Brett Hundley is the best quarterback likely to be there for Houston.
The Texans would be best served to roll the dice on quarterbacks Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett and Tom Savage than to overdraft Hundley at No. 16. Hundley will require too long to develop, and the Texans have their hands filled with developing Savage and, to an extent, Mallett.
Indianapolis Colts: Investing in Another Receiver Before Day 3
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It’s been a busy offseason for the Indianapolis Colts. General manager Ryan Grigson has surrounded quarterback Andrew Luck with quality veterans to help win in the short term. Paired with a decent offensive line, this is an offense ready to win a Super Bowl.
There are too many holes left on the Colts defense to invest in another receiver. The Colts will do just fine with Andre Johnson, T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and Duron Carter. Another developmental receiver wouldn’t hurt, but before Day 3 would be too rich for a player who won’t start.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Vic Beasley Is Gone by No. 3
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The Jacksonville Jaguars had a ton of money to spend this offseason, and they executed a number of deals to better their team. We’ll see how it works out, but I’m a fan of their offseason on paper.
Jacksonville has a great nucleus of defensive talent. But it needs one more piece in the front seven. Adding a "Leo" pass-rusher would put the icing on the cake for head coach Gus Bradley’s squad.
That being said, the Jaguars’ worst-case scenario is if Clemson defensive end Vic Beasley is off the board. Beasley is the ideal player to step in and produce for the Jaguars. He has every trait desired of an elite pass-rusher. If he’s gone, the Jaguars would be settling for a much less talented player.
Kansas City Chiefs: Waiting Too Long to Select an Inside Linebacker
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The Kansas City Chiefs are in a tough spot entering the draft. Cap restraints have limited their additions this offseason, putting a huge emphasis on immediate draft dividends.
The Chiefs need another receiver to go with Jeremy Maclin. Their offensive tackles must play better in 2015. Kansas City’s cornerback depth is very poor.
But the linebacker spot next to Derrick Johnson is the biggest wart on the roster. If the Chiefs avoid that position to fill other holes, they wont be able to add a starting-caliber talent.
Miami Dolphins: Missing Out on Top 3 Cornerbacks
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The Miami Dolphins have overhauled their wide receiver position this offseason. Out with the old, expensive receivers and in with the new. As much as receiver is a need, this is a deep class of receivers, and Miami doesn’t have to force that pick at No. 14.
What Miami must add is a cornerback opposite Brent Grimes. Third-year cornerback Jamar Taylor has solid tape, but he has a history of freak injuries that have limited his snaps. There must be a more consistent player added.
Washington’s Marcus Peters or Wake Forest cornerback Kevin Johnson would be an ideal fit. Peters has elite talent that comes with off-field baggage. Johnson can start day one. Michigan State’s Trae Waynes could also fit with Miami’s defensive scheme.
Minnesota Vikings: Picking a Wide Receiver at No. 11
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In the long term, the Minnesota Vikings may need a receiver to pair with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Receivers Mike Wallace and Cordarrelle Patterson could be off the team in 2016 depending on how 2015 plays out. Wallace has a monstrous contract, and Patterson has struggled to make an impact.
But for this season, the Vikings have greater needs elsewhere. A new receiver may not break into the starting lineup over Patterson and Jarius Wright. Spending a first-round pick on a backup just isn’t good resource management.
New England Patriots: Trading Too Far Back from No. 32
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New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick loves to trade on draft day. He’s mastered the art of collecting more picks. He may not trade back this year, but chances favor the Patriots moving down.
If the Patriots do decide to trade down, they must not trade down too far. New England has needs at left guard, running back, defensive tackle and cornerback. Quality is much more important than sheer quantity.
Getting more players only works if there are some good players in that extra bunch. But moving down when there are day-one contributors on the board is not a positive move with so many needs.
New Orleans Saints: Trading the Farm for Marcus Mariota
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It’s been said for months that the New Orleans Saints are planning to draft quarterback Drew Brees’ successor this year. Sitting with the 13th overall pick, it’s possible that Oregon’s Marcus Mariota is their big target.
The cost to move up to the second overall pick could be enormous. We’re talking at least two first-round picks and likely some Day 2 picks. For a team with veterans such as Brees throughout the roster, this wouldn’t be a good move.
Mariota may very well become a great quarterback, but unless Brees is traded, this move is too expensive. If the Saints want a full rebuild, moving Brees for Mariota would make more sense, as they’d likely get pick compensation back.
New York Giants: Brandon Scherff Is off the Board by No. 9
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To bounce back into Super Bowl form, the New York Giants need some help. With major holes at left guard, defensive tackle and free safety, general manager Jerry Reese has a big task ahead of him.
If Iowa offensive lineman Brandon Scherff is off the board at No. 9, Reese’s job will become even tougher. Scherff is capable of filling a guard or tackle spot for the Giants right away. His run-blocking prowess would instantly boost their anemic running game.
If Scherff is gone, the Giants may opt to take the best player available. That’s not a negative, but for this team to win in 2015, its glaring holes must be filled early.
New York Jets: Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota Are Gone by No. 6
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The New York Jets and Buffalo Bills share a lot in common at this point in time. Both reside in New York (kind of) and have a new head coach and great defense, but both need a quarterback. Only the Jets might have the chance at acquiring a franchise quarterback, though.
If neither Jameis Winston nor Marcus Mariota falls to the sixth overall pick, the Jets can still get a very good player. A pass-rusher will not elevate this team into the playoffs, whereas a near-elite quarterback or better would make this team a contender for the next decade.
Oakland Raiders: There’s No Trade Down Available
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Depending on how the first three picks fall, the Oakland Raiders could be stuck without a trade-down option. Why would Oakland want to trade down? To gain leverage if a quarterback is on the board.
USC defensive tackle Leonard Williams or Alabama wide receiver Amari Cooper would certainly be in the mix at No. 4. But if the Raiders can trade back just a few spots and still land their target, that would be the best move for the franchise.
Philadelphia Eagles: Missing Out on Eric Rowe
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The Philadelphia Eagles have done a good job injecting talent into their secondary the last two offseasons. Replacing cornerbacks Bradley Fletcher and Cary Williams were musts. There’s one spot left that must be upgraded in the secondary: free safety.
That’s where Utah’s Eric Rowe comes into play. Rowe spent three seasons as a free safety before moving to cornerback as a senior to help the team. His blend of size, speed and range would help transform the Eagles defense.
If Rowe is gone, the Eagles must rely on safety Earl Wolff more in 2015. Wolff may play better than in 2014, but Rowe is a much better talent overall.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Landon Collins Is Gone by No. 22
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The 2015 draft should yield a heavy defensive haul for the Pittsburgh Steelers. From defensive line to safety, this defense needs young talent on every layer. Cheap, fresh legs are now a priority.
One goal should be to add an impact safety to replace Troy Polamalu in the near future. Alabama’s Landon Collins would be the ideal candidate. If he is on the board at No. 22, he’s an obvious fit.
If Collins is gone, the Steelers could consider a pass-rusher or cornerback. But Collins is the top strong safety in this class by far, and his talent would be more impactful early in his career.
San Diego Chargers: Forcing a Running Back at No. 17
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Considering the 2015 running back class is so deep, selecting one in the first round seems like a poor job of capitalizing on value. The San Diego Chargers would be fulfilling their worst-case scenario if they select a first-round running back.
There’s little doubt the Chargers need to add a running back to their backfield. They also need to figure out the left guard position, where Kenny Wiggins is slated to start. To maximize their resources, the Chargers would do well to solidify their offensive line before adding the sexier pick at running back.
San Francisco 49ers: Wide Receiver Run Ends by No. 15
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No team has seen more change than the San Francisco 49ers have this offseason. Still, this is a good roster that was prepared to lose many of its veteran playmakers. Now that depth must be rebuilt.
If the 49ers want to add a day-one starter at receiver with the 15th overall pick, they had better hope the receiver run isn’t over already. After West Virginia’s Kevin White, Alabama’s Amari Cooper, Louisville’s DeVante Parker and, to an extent, UCF’s Breshad Perriman, there is a major talent drop-off for outside receivers.
Perriman seems most likely to last until the 15th pick. If he’s gone, the 49ers may have to show faith in Oklahoma’s Dorial Green-Beckham.
Seattle Seahawks: Ali Marpet Is Gone by No. 63
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Without a first-round pick, the Seattle Seahawks will have to be efficient with their remaining draft picks. The loss of center Max Unger via a trade for tight end Jimmy Graham has left the interior offensive line a mess.
If Hobart’s Ali Marpet is available with the 63rd pick, he can instantly start day one at center or guard for the Seahawks. Marpet is an excellent technician and athlete despite coming from a very small school. His Senior Bowl week was one of the best by any player.
The guard class as a whole is very weak. If Marpet is gone, Seattle may have to settle on a much less ready prospect.
St. Louis Rams: Top Tackles Are off the Board by No. 10
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The St. Louis Rams are another franchise that just seems to be a few pieces away from a deep playoff run. Those pieces are critical, though. The Rams lack a bona fide quarterback and offensive line.
With quarterback Nick Foles at the helm, the Rams are hoping he can stay healthier than former starter Sam Bradford. Now they must protect him. But as long as Brandon Washington is at right tackle, that is unlikely.
It’s unlikely the top three offensive tackles will all be off the board by the 10th pick, but anything is possible. Florida’s D.J. Humphries, LSU’s La’el Collins and Stanford’s Andrus Peat would bring great athleticism and upside to the position, and they're able to start immediately.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Overthinking the Top Overall Pick
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One thing that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers should be sure about is they need to add a quarterback with the top overall pick. Whether they choose Florida State’s Jameis Winston or Oregon’s Marcus Mariota, their swing for the fences is justified.
Adding a quarterback is inherently risky. There aren’t 15 Super Bowl-caliber quarterbacks in the league, so when there’s a chance to get one, you must act on it. If the Buccaneers pass on a quarterback, they’d be fulfilling their worst-case scenario.
Tennessee Titans: Passing on a New Franchise Quarterback
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Like the Buccaneers, the Tennessee Titans must change the direction of their franchise. The easiest way to do so is by adding a star quarterback. Tennessee might have the chance to add a veteran or a rookie.
If the Titans can pry quarterback Philip Rivers from the San Diego Chargers by using the No. 2 pick, they should. The alternative is to select whichever quarterback the Buccaneers do not pick. Either way, an upgrade on Zach Mettenberger is sorely needed.
Washington Redskins: Marcus Mariota Is off the Board by No. 5
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Whether the Washington Redskins want to add Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota to their stable or desire a trade down, their worst-case scenario features Mariota off the board. If two quarterbacks go before the fifth overall pick, then Washington should have its chance at one of the elite talents in the draft.
But Washington is still recovering from the Robert Griffin III trade. It needs a large influx of talent on defense to contend in 2015 and beyond. A trade back must be at least considered.
Without Mariota there, Washington would likely look at the edge-rusher class. Rolling the dice on Nebraska’s Randy Gregory or Florida’s Dante Fowler Jr. wouldn’t be bad moves.
All stats used are from sports-reference.com.
Ian Wharton is an NFL Draft Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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