Predicting MLB's All-Overachiever Team for 2015
"Overachiever" is one of those loaded words. It's a backhanded compliment, another way of saying, in a patronizing tone, "Well, look what you did!"
It isn't a bad thing, though—truly.
Every year, a handful of big league players defy the projections and achieve unanticipated success. That's to be celebrated.
As the 2015 campaign kicks off, here are ten guys (one per position, though we cheated and crammed in a two-for-one) who could wear the overachiever mantle. Some are untested rookies; others are seasoned veterans. Some had good seasons in 2014; others decidedly did not.
What they all share is the ability and opportunity to vault past expectations and put up better numbers than all but the most optimistic observers think they will.
And that's a compliment, straight up.
1B: Ike Davis/Billy Butler, Oakland A's
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The Oakland A's didn't invent the platoon, but they've elevated it to an art form.
For years, the A's have exploited lefty-righty combinations to optimize production, creating two- and sometimes three-headed monsters that are greater than the sum of their parts.
This season, manager Bob Melvin told CBSSports.com's R.J. White that Oakland will experiment with a Billy Butler-Ike Davis platoon at first base.
The left-handed hitter, Davis, owns a career .256 batting average and .813 OPS against right-handers, compared to a .196 average and .577 OPS against lefties.
Butler, meanwhile, who will also see time at DH, has scalded southpaws over his career to the tune of a .314 average and .912 OPS.
Looks like the ingredients for another better-than-expected twosome in the East Bay.
2B: Joe Panik, San Francisco Giants
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Joe Panik was an overachiever last year, going from minor league afterthought to starting second baseman for the World Series champion San Francisco Giants.
This season, he's a popular pick for regression. His .343 Batting Average on Balls in Play was well above the league average, per FanGraphs, and a look at his minor league stats reveals a player with limited power who needs to hit for a high average to stay valuable.
When Panik hit just .208 in spring, some in San Francisco may have begun hitting the you-know-what button.
The 24-year-old answered the doubters on Opening Day by going 3-for-5, displaying the smooth, unflappable approach that made him a surprise success last season. Yes, it's only one game. But it was a good one.
Overachiever Round 2, anyone?
3B: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
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OK, you're rolling your eyes. You've heard enough about Alex Rodriguez, how he's coming back from a season-long performance-enhancing drug suspension and had a hot spring and blah, blah, blah.
We get it. Still, admit it: A-Rod's exhibition output caught you by surprise.
Rodriguez posted a .267/.377/.489 slash line and tied for the club lead with three home runs in the Grapefruit League.
Normally, that wouldn't turn too many heads, but A-Rod isn't normal. Now, he's given the Yankees cause for cautious optimism, something that seemed nearly unfathomable a few short months ago.
"I've said all along, I thought Alex was going to help us," manager Joe Girardi said, per NJ.com's Brendan Kuty. "But until you get into it, I mean, it's two years since he's played. I wasn't 100 percent sure."
We still aren't, but we'll buck the odds and bet on A-Rod, even if we're cheating a bit by putting him at third base when most of his at-bats will come as a designated hitter.
And yes, we just used the word "cheating." Get over it.
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SS: Jordy Mercer, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Jordy Mercer enjoyed a minor breakout in 2014. Still, his stats were padded by a strong second half in which the 28-year-old raised his OPS from .648 to .753.
Mercer came into camp as the Pittsburgh Pirates' presumed shortstop, but the arrival of Korean slugger Jung Ho Kang created at least a shred of doubt.
Mercer answered those doubts by hitting .333 with three home runs in the Grapefruit League.
"I never worried about it one bit, to be perfectly honest," Mercer told MLB.com's Tom Singer, of the perceived competition with Kang. "That's kind of the way I always am. Put my head down and keep playing."
Maybe so, but look for Mercer to elevate his game to the next level in 2015, spreading that hot second half over an entire season as the Pirates push for a third straight postseason berth.
LF: Ryan Rua, Texas Rangers
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Winning the Texas Rangers' wide-open left field competition was an accomplishment unto itself for Ryan Rua.
The 25-year-old didn't even crack Keith Law's list of the Rangers' top 10 prospects at ESPN.com. What he did do is work his way into the Opening Day lineup with an .885 spring OPS.
The ZiPS projection system foresees a pedestrian .237/.292/.368 slash line, per FanGraphs. And Law describes "a quality bench guy who might become a fringe regular."
Call it blind optimism, but on a Texas team that's been hosed by injuries, we'll tap Rua as this season's found money—an overachiever in a sea of underdeliverers.
CF: Eric Young Jr., Atlanta Braves
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Entering the 2015 season, Eric Young Jr. had logged just 44 games in center field during a half-dozen big league seasons.
So it was a gamble for the Atlanta Braves to hand the gig to the 29-year-old speedster who hit .229 last year with the New York Mets.
These Braves are rebuilding, though, and they're willing to take chances. Young is also the guy who swiped a National League-leading 46 bases in 2013.
'"He creates chaos up there when he gets on. That's nice to see," said skipper Fredi Gonzalez, per Jeff Odom of The Associated Press (via Yahoo Sports). "He's taken to center field pretty good. You feel comfortable with him. So, shoot, why not?"
RF: Travis Snider, Baltimore Orioles
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Travis Snider was a nice, quiet surprise for Pittsburgh last year, hitting .264 with 13 home runs.
Now, the 27-year-old former first-round pick is starting in right field for the defending AL East champion Baltimore Orioles, becoming the first guy not named Nick Markakis to take the gig since 2006.
"I don't look at it as filling anybody's shoes," Snider said, per Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun.
Fine, but he'll be expected to, especially on an O's team that also lost AL home run leader Nelson Cruz to free agency.
So far, so good for Snider, who collected three hits and two RBI in his Orioles debut.
"Whether it's me or the other 24 guys on this roster, it's going to be a long season, and we're going to expect guys to step up every night," Snider told Connolly. "So when we get those opportunities, it's nice to come through."
C: Francisco Cervelli, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Following departed free agent Russell Martin as the Pirates catcher would be a tall enough order, but Francisco Cervelli has other crosses to bear.
The 29-year-old has dealt with multiple injuries and served a 50-game performance-enhancing drug suspension in 2013.
Pittsburgh, though, believed in him enough to give him the job.
"He is a hungry learner," manager Clint Hurdle said of his new backstop, per John Perrotto of The Associated Press (via the Pocono Record). "He’s asking questions, having conversations, watching video tape. He takes the job seriously but he is also a fun guy to have around."
It helped that Cervelli hit .297 in the spring and cracked four home runs. Now, he's got to prove it over the long haul and get out from Martin's long shadow.
P: Ryan Vogelsong, San Francisco Giants
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You know the legend of Ryan Vogelsong, the former Giants prospect who went from injuries to a protracted stint in Japan and back to the Giants, transforming into an All-Star at age 34 and winning a pair of rings with San Francisco.
It's the kind of absurd career arc you couldn't invent if you tried. So why not anticipate one more improbable twist?
This winter, Vogelsong was on the verge of signing with the Houston Astros before pulling out because he felt "uncomfortable," per CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman.
Instead, the right-hander re-upped with the club that launched and resurrected his career. And now, with Matt Cain on the disabled list and Jake Peavy battling back issues, Vogelsong is in the starting rotation once again.
In fact, he started the second game of the season for the defending champs. Yes, he surrendered seven runs in 4.2 innings. The point, though, is that he's there, against all odds.
Which for Vogelsong, and everyone on this list, is sort of the point.
All statistics current as of April 7 and courtesy of MLB.com.
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