MLB DFS 2015: Breaking Down the 'Perfect' Lineup
What does it take to win one million dollars in daily fantasy?
Besides a lot of luck, you need to come up with a great strategy to create the best possible lineup in key contests. While the lineup doesn't necessarily need to be perfect, it has be good enough to top your competition by grabbing the right players on the right day.
Peter Jennings was able to take home $1 million in daily fantasy baseball with this Aug. 26 lineup:
| Pos. | Name | Points |
| P | Johnny Cueto | 18.85 |
| P | Alex Wood | 17.55 |
| C | Carlos Santana | 11 |
| 1B | Mike Napoli | 25 |
| 2B | Dustin Pedroia | 32 |
| 3B | Brock Holt | 12 |
| SS | Mookie Betts | 7 |
| OF | Jose Bautista | 18 |
| OF | Yoenis Cespedes | 11 |
| OF | Allen Craig | 18 |
| Total Fantasy Points: 170.40 | ||
This group of players is hardly intimidating at first glance, but on this day it was the best of the competition.
So what made each pick so smart? Let's take a look at the different strategies used to create this lineup and maybe you have similar success in the future.
Stacking a Lineup
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This is one of the most common daily fantasy baseball strategies and the easiest to pull off. In this case, it was also extremely successful.
When you "stack" your lineup, you are putting together a bunch of players on the same team in hopes they are all successful. If a No. 3 hitter gets on base and the No. 4 hitter hits a home run, it will be a lot of points for your fantasy team.
In this case, Peter had faith in the Boston Red Sox against the Toronto Blue Jays, drafting Mike Napoli, Dustin Pedroia, Brock Holt, Mookie Betts, Yoenis Cespedes and Allen Craig. Although this would seem to be going overboard, it worked out as the Red Sox scored 11 runs in a win.
This obviously requires a lot of luck, but if you are expecting a big day from a lineup, you might as well get as many points as possible from it.
Favorable Pitching Matchups
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You have two slots for pitchers in each lineup, and they often bring in the most points, so you want to make it count.
Instead of just picking the best starter of the day, you need to find someone who has a chance to dominate a weaker lineup. This is what was expected out of Johnny Cueto and Alex Wood.
Cueto started his game against the Chicago Cubs, while Wood matched up against the New York Mets. In 2014, the Cubs and Mets each finished with a .239 batting average to rank 27th and 28th in the majors, respectively.
Although neither starter was able to pull out a win despite facing an inferior opponent, they still came through with solid performances.
Familiarity Is a Good Thing
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The majority of hitters in this lineup were on the Red Sox with a matchup against R.A. Dickey. For those who don't know, Dickey is a knuckleball pitcher who has some great days on the mound as well as some he would want to forget.
While facing a knuckleballer for the first time is a real challenge even for major league hitters, it tends to get easier when you see it a few times. This made it helpful that this Aug. 26 start was the third time in just over a month Dickey started against the Red Sox.
Although the starter fared relatively well (three runs allowed in six innings), it could have been much worse.
Meanwhile, closer Casey Janssen was in the midst of a terrible year against Boston. Despite having a 3.94 ERA for the season, this stat grew to 11.57 against the Red Sox, including the four runs (three earned) allowed in this matchup.
The Red Sox were familiar with their opponents in this one, and it helped out at the plate.
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Spend on Power Hitters
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They say chicks dig the long ball. Well, fantasy owners do too.
Home runs are worth 10 points on DraftKings, which makes a serious impact on your day. This is why it's important to bring in players capable of knocking it out of the park.
Carlos Santana didn't hit a homer on this day, but he is still one of the best power-hitting catchers in the game. This makes him a smart play if you're looking for upside.
Meanwhile, home runs from Jose Bautista, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Napoli and Allen Craig ended up making the difference in the win.
Find A Cheap Pitcher
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With pitchers easily being the most expensive part of your lineup, it's almost impossible to grab two top ones and still end up with a reasonable list of hitters.
This leaves the common strategy of getting one safer pitcher and one who is a bit of a sleeper. In this lineup, Peter decided to go with Alex Wood of the Atlanta Braves.
Although Wood was in the midst of an impressive season, the 24-year-old pitcher was far from a household name. This kept his price down, and the value gave an opportunity to spend money elsewhere.
After posting a 2.20 ERA in the second half of the season, Wood won't really be a sleeper anymore. Fortunately, there will always be additional cheap options to grab.
Young Players Often Have Better Value
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One of the keys in all fantasy sports is to find young sleepers to help your team before anyone else knows who they are. The same strategy can help you in daily fantasy as well.
Throughout the season, there will be top prospects making their debuts. Before anyone really takes notice, they are coming through with huge performances either at the plate or on the mound.
Eventually, DraftKings will adjust the prices accordingly, but you can get great value by picking these players while they are still cheap.
Alex Wood was only in the Braves starting rotation for two months at this point after spending the beginning of the year in the bullpen. Mookie Betts had only begun getting regular playing time for a little more than a week.
If you can get even a little production out of these younger contributors, it can go a long way.
Draft Pitchers Who Get Strikeouts
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Even the best pitchers in the majors have bad games. Johnny Cueto won 20 games last season but still had a pair of starts where he gave up six earned runs and a few more questionable ones along the way.
However, one area you can almost guarantee Cueto will contribute every game is with strikeouts. Cueto ranked fifth in the majors last season with 242 strikeouts, including at least six in 27 of his 34 starts.
In a point-based league, you want someone who can punch out as many hitters as possible on a consistent basis.
Either these strikeouts are going to save you from a miserable day or they will be a bonus as the pitcher carries you to victory.
Hoping for the End of a Cold Streak?
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This is a strategy that doesn't always pay off because you could end up looking dumb for a long time, but you can get great value by getting someone on the tail end of a cold streak.
The great thing about baseball is you can expect water to level after a while. An average hitter can be great for a while before coming back to earth, while an elite hitter will go cold before coming back.
Jose Bautista went 0-for-13 at the plate in the four games prior to this contest. Usually you want to avoid someone playing this poorly, but Peter decided things weren't going to sink any lower.
He turned out being right; Aug. 26 became the first of five games in a row Bautista hit a home run.
Bautista probably wouldn't have even bet on himself at that point, but having faith in a turnaround can sometimes pay off.
Hitters in a Hitters' Park
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If you are going to take seven of your eight hitters from one game, you better make sure they are in a place where they can succeed.
Unlike other sports, MLB stadiums are not created equal. Different sizes, shapes and locations of parks lead to varied amounts of success for hitters and pitchers.
When the Red Sox took on the Blue Jays on Aug. 26, the game took place at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. According to ESPN's MLB Park Factors, this particular park finished the year ranked third in the majors in home run rate.
Considering Fenway Park ranked 27th in the same category, those Boston hitters were probably loving the change.
Don't Necessarily Follow the Crowd
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What if you're right and they're wrong?
Crowdsourcing for ideas works well at times, but in other cases, you have to feel confident going off the grid.
In this championship contest, pitcher's Johnny Cueto and Alex Wood were very popular picks, with Wood being selected on 74 percent of teams. These players had solid, but unspectacular, days.
At the same time, top performers such as Dustin Pedroia and Mike Napoli were selected on 6 percent and 4 percent of teams, respectively.
It's hard to get ahead if you're doing the same thing as everyone else, so don't be afraid to take risks with the chance of a big payoff.
Ready for baseball? DraftKings is hosting a $15,000 FREE contest for MLB Opening Day. Spots are limited so get in now!
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