Fantasy Football 101: 2009 Bust Candidates

As draft time nears, much of the focus is on finding the late round sleepers, but avoiding the busts is even more important to your team's ultimate success. 

After all, many of the biggest busts are players you took in the first five rounds whom you were counting on a major contribution. 

Don't worry; we will cover the sleepers in our next article but for now let's look at the players to push down your draft board (or in some cases avoid altogether). 

Quarterback:

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys

Before the hate mail comes, let me say I am not predicting Romo to completely flat-line in the post-Jessica Simpson era, but Romo will be more of a top 10-15 QB than a top five QB this season. 

The Cowboys are expected to re-focus on the ground game this season and aside from tight ends Jason Witten and Martellus Bennett, the receivers are not the type that strike fear in opponents. 

A return to 4,000 yards and 30+ TDs is not likely.  He will still be solid, but a 3,500 yard 20-25 TD season is more likely and possibly optimistic. 

Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles

McNabb is a big name who always gets drafted high on draft day, but he is merely a good fantasy quarterback and not a great one.  

Injuries are always a concern, but more concerning is that he has only thrown for 3,500+ yards twice in his career, only thrown more than 25 touchdowns once (way back in 2004), and does not run anymore. 

In other words is he really worth anything more than Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, or Kurt Warner (not to mention Matt Schaub or Matt Ryan)?  He will be hard pressed to be a top 10 quarterback again this season. 

Matt Cassell, New England

Word is Cassell is hardly tearing it up in Chiefs camp and he no longer has Randy Moss and Wes Welker to throw to.  He still has potential but there will be a learning curve this season.  Duplicating his 2008 numbers is not likely.  Don't draft him to be a starter except in a two quarterback league. 

Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens

It is easy to say Flacco is going to get better with another year under his belt, but the Ravens are still going to be a defensive oriented team which relies on a ball control offense geared to minimize mistakes. 

In addition, the Ravens did not improve Flacco's targets, aside from oft-injured TE LJ Smith.  He might be better, but not by enough to make him fantasy relevant except in two quarterback leagues.  A top 20 season in fantasy points would be an accomplishment for Flacco this year.

Running Back: (Hint: Don't gamble with aging running backs with early round picks)

LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers

LT was once the best player in fantasy football, but his play has slipped each of the past two seasons and few running backs over 30 are able to bounce back the inevitable slide. 

Even if he is healthy, Darren Sproles will play an increased role this season.  Overall, LT's risk outweighs his upside as a No. 1 running back.  Let someone else gamble with their first round pick. 

Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles

In 2007, Westbrook was an MVP candidate (2,104 total yards) and a PPR league monster. In 2008, he fell hard with just 1,338 total yards as he battled injuries all season long and those injuries are limiting him in camp thus far.  

The icing on the cake is he turns the big 30 before the season starts and has never played in all 16 games during his career.

The problem is not a lack of talent but the risk of taking him with a pick in the first, second or even third rounds is too great as LeSean McCoy takes some of his touches.

Let someone else gamble on Westbrook unless he falls past round three.  If you draft him, you will need to overdraft McCoy as a handcuff.

Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins

The burden of carrying the Redskins offense really showed late last season and the offense (especially the line) does not look any better this season.  He is more of a grinder than a breakaway back at this stage in his career and is no longer a fantasy force. 

DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers

I can't just pick on again veterans, so let this be a caution on DeAngelo.  Williams is in a time share and duplicating his 20 overall touchdowns ( including 6 from 30+ yards) is not likely. 

He will have a solid season but one more in line with No.2 running back than the No.1 running back you will draft him to be. He will be overdrafted based on his tremendous 2008 but 1,200 yards and 10 TDs is more likely.  He does have the most upside of the four guys on this list.

Wide Receiver:

TJ Houshmandzadeh, Seattle Seahawks

TJ has never been a No. 1 receiver before and is more of a possession receiver.  He has averaged just 10 yards per catch the past two seasons and the Seahawk offense is not expected to be as pass happy as the Bengals were.

Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers

Holmes has talent but he is likely to get overdrafted due to his tremendous Super Bowl.  More of a 65—catch 1,000 yard catch guy than the breakout star some expect.

Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos

He has butted heads with the new regime and his training camp is attitude issues brings back memories of the 2008 Ocho Cinco.  Combine the attitude with the departure of Jay Cutler and you have the makings of a flameout.

Braylon Edwards, Cleveland Browns

Should be playing for a contract but like Marshall he does not seem to be making friends with the new coaching staff.  His case of the dropsies has also carried over into the preseason.  Worth a gamble if he slides, but names like his rarely slide on draft day.

Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers

Normally, Driver is among the most underrated receivers in the league, but this will be the season he fails to reach 1,000 yards.  The lurking of James Jones and Jordy Nelson does not help the 34 year old wideout either.

Roy Williams, Dallas Cowboys

His performance the past two years should have tempered expectations, but the departure of Terrell Owens has many thinking he will be a No. 1 receiver again.  A return to form is a 50/50 shot, meaning he will be too much of a gamble where you will need to take him. 

Torry Holt, Jacksonville Jaguars

A move to Jacksonville makes you think he could return to form, but his knees were shot last year.  Expect another 65—catch, 850 yard season; anything more is a bonus.

Tight End:

Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

He has been banged up throughout his career and moving to a weak Tampa offense will not allow for a return to form.

Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans Saints

Plays in a pass friendly offense but he has been injury prone and has not had more than 800 yards receiving since 2005.

Any Tight End You Select Before Round Six

It used to be Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, and a big drop off. But the emergence of tight ends around the league allows you the opportunity to wait and take the best value on the board. 

There are 10-11 tight ends who are capable of 70 catches and 800+ yards diminishing the value of the big three. Consider taking a third running back or receiver before taking a tight end this year.

Chris Maier is Senior Editor for Draft101.com. He can be reached at [e-mail]