The Riskiest Prospects in the 2015 NFL Draft

The 2015 NFL draft class has plenty of talent deep into the middle rounds, but it lacks undeniable superstar appeal in the top half of the first round.

Instead of an obvious No. 1 pick, there’s a quarterback who likes five-finger discounts on crab legs and another who likes to run more than talk. Defensive pass-rushers are bountiful this year, but there are at least two who could be vastly over-drafted.

There’s always risk involved when drafting players into the NFL, and this risk goes up the earlier they’re selected. The prospects mentioned on this list are all projected to go in the first two rounds and have been deemed risky due to some combination of character red flags, on-field performance or questions about how their skills translate at the next level.

The following seven players carry the highest risk and reward heading into this April's draft.

Shane Ray, LB, Missouri

Wade Payne/Associated Press

If you’ve been reading up on this year’s draft prospects, you’re probably wondering how Shane Ray ended up here.

Ray’s off-the-field record is squeaky clean, and he appears to have the demeanor coaches look for.

Tape on this edge-rusher shows a guy who plays the game with passion and fire. He has a quick get-off and pursues the ball with a good motor. However, there are some concerns about his build, athleticism and functional strength that merit a closer look.

Every draft analyst at NFL.com projects Ray to be a top-eight pick in April. Though this is the time of year for smokescreen comments from anonymous scouts, one did deliver a worthy quote to Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

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I don't like him. People see who he is, they're going to fall off him quick. The body structure. No way in hell he can be an outside 'backer. Competitive, smart and reliable. Wins with effort, urgency and great first step. He has a degree of stiffness. He's got to win with quickness because of his lack of size and strength.

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Smokescreen or not, this is actually the assessment on Ray I agree with the most.

Aside from the issues previously mentioned, he struggles to execute countermoves and has trouble using his hands. Nearly all of his success comes with his foot speed. NFL blockers will likely neutralize that, which means he'll need to show skills we have yet to see during his time at Missouri and win with an arsenal of moves and technique.

It may seem like these things can be taught, but to be honest, that rarely happens.

I project Ray will become the next Melvin Ingram, whom the San Diego Chargers drafted in the first round in 2012. The South Carolina product has been underwhelming in San Diego so far—when healthy.

Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State

By now, we all have a pretty good idea about the checkered past of Jameis Winston during his time at Florida State.

Most experts consider Winston to be the consensus No. 1 quarterback in this draft, and for good reason.

His experience in a more pro-like system has him positioned as the most NFL-ready of the available quarterback prospects in this class. He also shows all of the qualities scouts look for in a pocket passer.

On the other hand, he has a terrible propensity for forcing turnovers in the early portions of games with careless decision-making. In 2014, Winston threw 25 touchdown passes to go with 18 interceptions. This is a dramatic drop-off from his Heisman-winning freshman campaign where he willed his team to an undefeated season and a national championship by throwing 40 scores and just 10 picks.

Perhaps it became tough for Winston to focus on football with all of the drama going on. That drama is also hard to overlook when considering the risk element involved in taking him with the first overall pick.

Last year alone, the former Heisman winner was investigated for rape allegations, but he wasn't charged. In May, he was charged with stealing crab legs from a supermarket. In September, Florida State suspended Winston for a game after he yelled an obscenity in the school's student union.

Winston has the physical tools and football IQ to be a franchise quarterback, but the toughest part of the evaluation process is projecting how a prospect’s intangibles and character will transition to a world of infinite money and attention.

If you’re trying to decide on Winston as a franchise signal-caller and you can get past the character issues, how do you feel about his interceptions? Put them both together and you get a high-risk, high-reward prospect who could be the first player taken on April 30.

Marcus Peters, CB, Washington

Not only does former Washington cornerback Marcus Peters have great measurables, but he used those tools to become one of the most productive cornerbacks in this draft class.

With so much going for him as a football talent, it’s a shame this guy comes with some concerning baggage.

When watching film of Peters early on in the year, I quickly noticed that he seemed to show signs of being emotionally compromised as a player, constantly getting into heated exchanges with opponents after the whistle. He seemed to be drawn into verbal spats with guys and loves to flex his muscles and intimidate players in between snaps.  

In some respects, this can be viewed as a good thing if that passion and aggression show up in the way he plays. Unfortunately, Peters shows all the symptoms of being a paper tiger who talks up a big game but is one of the most reluctant corners in this draft when it comes to being physical.

This is a tough knock for Peters in terms of his play on the field and only adds to the concerns off of it. Well-respected head coach Chris Petersen dismissed him from the team in November due to numerous disagreements with the new coaching staff at Washington, per The Seattle Times' Adam Jude.

While most draft evaluators believe Peters is the most talented corner in this draft, NFL.com's Bucky Brooks delved into how his dismissal could impact his draft status:

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Whenever a blue-chip player is dismissed from a program during the season, it causes a bit of concern in NFL circles. Scouts and coaches have strong relationships with their college brethren; they don't take dismissals or suspensions lightly when they are due to insubordination. Every NFL coach wants a locker room full of guys who "buy in" and believe in the direction of the program. If the Washington coaching staff suggests that he isn't a "team guy," the second-team All-Pac-12 cornerback will have to convince scouts and coaches that he won't be a problem in their respective locker rooms.

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I didn’t even need to hear reports about Peters being dismissed to notice behavior during games that had me worried. His dismissal is just icing on the high-risk cake.

Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma/Missouri

Before we get started on the intriguing enigma that is Dorial Green-Beckham, here’s what his NFL.com prospect profile includes in his "weaknesses":

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Considered a problem child at Missouri. Suspended twice by Missouri and arrested twice for marijuana-related incidents. Kicked off team at Missouri in April 2014 after details of his alleged role in an alleged burglary were released by Columbia, Mo., police. He allegedly shoved a female student down some stairs during the alleged incident, but no charges were filed. Missed entire 2014 season.

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The 6’5”, 237-pound Green-Beckham ran a 4.49 40-yard dash at the NFL combine, which makes him a bit of a poor man’s Calvin Johnson in terms of dimensions. His physical abilities are more than enough to have several offensive coordinators drooling.

Most everybody agrees he's a first-round talent when you look at what he can do on a football field. However, his legal troubles and potential issues with marijuana will have many evaluators wondering if this is just another Josh Gordon situation all over again.

In addition to the concerns off of the field, Green-Beckham has not played a football game in well over a year, and he only has 24 collegiate games under his belt to begin with. There’s a chance he could require some time to readjust to a practice regiment and shake off the rust that comes with sitting out for an extended period of time.

If the former Missouri Tiger slips into the second round, the risks associated with him should decline significantly when you consider his immense potential as an elite receiver in the NFL.

Paul Dawson, LB, TCU

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

NFL Media's Mike Mayock lists Paul Dawson as his top linebacker in this year's draft class. This is high praise for a guy who yielded one of the worst performances at the combine this year, running the 40-yard dash in 4.93 seconds.

The former TCU linebacker may not have the measurables that impress evaluators, but his tape shows a player worthy of a top-40 selection. In response to some of the criticism following his poor combine performance, Dawson took to Twitter to offer up a counter perspective. 

“I'm an awesome football player,” he tweeted. “The best/most productive linebacker in this draft. Not a track Star. #meetmeonthefield”

Unfortunately, slow test times are not the only thing holding back Dawson’s draft stock. According to NFL Media's Lance Zierlein, Dawson may not have been a “beloved” teammate at TCU. 

“He's an early-round player without any question, but you don't have to dig around very deep or very long to realize that his personal character is going to be a major issue for some teams,” an anonymous AFC West regional scout told Zierlein. “My grade will be two rounds later than just the talent grade. It has to be factored in.”

If Dawson does indeed have some issues with his teammates, that is something you can’t ignore when trying to determine his overall value come April.

When a top-50 prospect struggles with both athletic measurables and character issues, you have the poster child for a high-risk player.

Dante Fowler, Edge, Florida

According to Bleacher Report’s Dan Hope, Dante Fowler is the best pass-rushing prospect in this draft class. NFL Draft Lead Writer Matt Miller’s big board has Fowler ranked as the fifth-best prospect overall.

Fowler's tape does flash potential at times, and he boasts incredible athleticism. However, he seems to lack the intelligence and awareness to become a true star at the next level.

Additionally, Fowler underwhelmed at the combine and revealed he wasn’t quite the athlete we once thought.

With some times still pending from other prospects’ pro days, Fowler currently ranks 15th out of 21 edge players using a formula that combines a player’s complete physical tools. This basically turned what seemed to be his biggest strength into an average quality at best.

In addition to his mediocre measurables, Fowler also ranked 12th out of 28 draft-eligible Division I edge-rushers based on a system that measures overall production on a per-game and career basis.

Basically, Fowler failed to show awareness on tape and lacked the instincts to instill confidence that he can be a star. He then showed up as an average prospect in terms of measurables and his college production.

Being average in all three of those categories makes Fowler an extremely risky prospect when you think about him in the first round, let alone the top 15 overall.

Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon

Ryan Kang/Associated Press

Marcus Mariota is not risky in terms of character issues or because he was unproductive in college. Oregon's former quarterback also had an excellent performance at the combine, where he put his unique athletic ability on full display.

Mariota certainly won a lot of games and has no shortage of personal accolades, including the Heisman Trophy. So, what makes him such a big risk?

Well, Mariota brings some important questions to the table that need answers.

Throughout this predraft process, some have wondered whether he is nothing more than a system quarterback. Oregon’s high-powered offense has been renowned for its high-octane style that pushes the pedal to the metal at all times. The system generally allows for reads and decisions to be either simplified or, at times, eliminated altogether for the signal-caller.

Accordingly, there's legitimate reason to wonder how Mariota will be able to make the transition to the NFL. At the scouting combine, this year's Heisman winner also admitted to reporters he hasn't called a play in a huddle since high school.

Teammates have to trust their quarterback. When these grown men get into a huddle, they look to their QB for leadership. They need to know he’s capable of memorizing the verbiage and the assignments of each player in that huddle.

Arizona Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians shared similar sentiments after Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio asked him about the process of evaluating a player like Mariota (via PFT's Josh Alper):

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Seeing the guys coming out of the systems now where the coach holds a card up, the player’s line up, he kicks his foot and they play football — the hardest thing for them is to get into a huddle and call a play,” Arians said. “They’re stuttering, they’re stammering, the guys around them don’t believe in them. That’s that leadership thing. That’s the hardest thing for these young quarterbacks who play in these systems…they have to learn how to play quarterback at this level and sometimes that’s overwhelming.

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Arians might come off as harsh here, but he makes some valid points. Being a vocal leader has always been an area that needs improvement for Mariota, who is considered more of an introvert. This can hurt his ability to truly take control of an organization.

To add to the risk, Mariota recently turned out a questionable showing at his pro day, where he seemed to have issues with his feet and ball placement.   

Unless the Philadelphia Eagles draft Mariota, he could need at least a couple of years to adjust to the NFL. Hopefully, he can retain his confidence during that time, which is a challenge many young QBs have unsuccessfully faced over the years.

Ryan Riddle is a former NFL player writing for Bleacher Report.