NFL Free Agents 2015: Rumors and Signing Predictions for Top Available Names

NFL free agency sneaked up on reporters and the general public alike, as teams made a sham of the three-day legal-tampering period this year.  Consequently, many players were off the market before free agency "officially" opened on March 10, and though a flurry of trades spiced things up, the majority of the most impactful names have already been taken.

Ironically, though, this might actually be the most important stage of free agency.  The perennial contenders don't rely on reeling in the big fish, but rather finding good values that turn into significant contributors.  Thus, some of the players signed over the next few days could represent the difference between non-playoff teams, playoff squads and championship contenders.

Taking a look at the buzz surrounding some of the biggest remaining names, let's reveal where it appears these players will end up playing in 2015.

Pats in Fairley Sweepstakes?

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

The early waves of free agency have hit the defending champions hard.  The secondary—the strength of the New England Patriots defense last season—lost starting cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, while stalwart defensive tackle Vince Wilfork has ostensibly departed after the Pats declined his option.

However, Bill Belichick and Co. could be close to replacing the latter hole.  The Detroit Free Press' Dave Birkett reported that the Detroit Lions were out of the running for defensive tackle Nick Fairley, who could now be on the Patriots' radar as a potential Wilfork successor:

New England won't be alone in pursuing Fairley, though, as Birkett reported that at least six teams had expressed interest in the 27-year-old lineman.  That's hardly surprising after Fairley finally fulfilled his potential as a former first-rounder.  Based on stats from Pro Football Focus, Fairley established himself as one of the league's most well-rounded defensive tackles last season:

Run Stop Percentage	NFL DT Rank	Pass Rushing Productivity	NFL DT Rank
8.9%	T-14	10.0 (22 pressures in 170 snaps)	1

Of course, he also comes with an abundance of red flags.  The reason for Fairley's availability in the first place stems from the fact that Detroit declined his fifth-year rookie contract option for motivational purposes.  

The option would have consigned Fairley to playing for $5.5 million in 2015, a number he'll blow away with his upcoming contract.  That the Lions willingly sacrificed such a favorable deal is illustrative of their discomfort with Fairley's motivation and injury issues, as he's yet to play a full 16-game season.

The Patriots are the type of stable environment that could bring out the best in Fairley, but New England also has just $10.8 million in cap space, according to Over the Cap's calculations, and probably can't fit him into their budget.  For now, let's put the Chicago Bears out there, a team who could use another defensive lineman as they transition to Vic Fangio's system and have the cash to weaken their NFC North rivals.

Prediction: Fairley to Bears, four years, $34.5 million, $18 million guaranteed.

Another Contender for Spiller

Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

The New Orleans Saints have hinted at a transition toward a more run-oriented offense as Drew Brees approaches his twilight years.  The shocking Jimmy Graham trade was the clearest sign of this, but the Saints also added dominant run-blocker Max Unger in the deal, all after cutting receiving back Pierre Thomas and extending Mark Ingram.  Now, the Saints are in the race for the most explosive back left on the market:

In fairness, Spiller is probably closer to a replacement for Thomas than a between-the-tackles runner like Ingram.  The former seventh overall pick hasn't come close to matching his breakout 2012 season, when he accumulated 1,703 yards from scrimmage, but he has compiled 63 catches despite playing just 15 games over the last two seasons.

New Orleans isn't alone in the pursuit for Spiller; he's also been linked to the Patriots, and NFL.com's Ian Rapoport mentioned the Dallas Cowboys in the above tweet.  Spiller reportedly turned down an offer from the Buffalo Bills before free agency began that would have paid him $4.5 million per year, hence prompting the LeSean McCoy trade. 

Perhaps that had something to do with the guaranteed money in the deal, but it's still curious that Spiller turned down a Shane Vereen-type of deal.  Spiller has eclipsed 250 total touches just once in his career, and he's coming off a season in which he averaged a meager 4.4 yards per touch.  For reference, that's roughly equivalent to what Steven Jackson and Donald Brown produced last season.

That hardly sounds like a back worthy of $5 million or more per year, but Spiller's betting on his track record as one of the league's most explosive all-around backs between 2011-13.  With the running back market quickly drying up, here's betting that his gamble pays off.

Prediction: Spiller to Cowboys, three years, $15.5 million, $6 million guaranteed.

Browns Want Clay

The Miami Dolphins made a seemingly curious decision to place the transition tag on tight end Charles Clay, paying him a shade over $7 million and allowing them to match any tendered offers.  

However, with the Fins moving mountains for defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, an expected challenge from the Buffalo Bills could cost Miami its starting tight end.  Buffalo apparently isn't alone, though, with the Cleveland Browns also in position to make a play for Clay:

Both teams are in need of a tight end, with Jordan Cameron likely departing the Browns and the Bills releasing Scott Chandler on Wednesday to clear room, per ESPN.com's Mike Rodak.  

Though the Bills have made the most noise surrounding Clay, Cleveland has a whopping $41.6 million in cap space, the third-most in the league at the moment.  With just $13.9 million of breathing space for Buffalo, the Browns could probably win a bidding war if they desired.

Frankly, though, the tug of war for Clay is puzzling.  The 26-year-old saw his production dip after a breakout 2013 campaign, finishing with 58 catches but averaging just 10.4 yards per reception.  The advanced numbers didn't love him either, as Clay finished 32nd among tight ends in Football Outsiders' opponent-adjusted DVOA metric, a measure of success rate.  Clay's burgeoning market has some observers puzzled:

Still, with both free agency and the draft bereft of viable tight end options, Clay is arguably the most appealing option of the offseason with Julius Thomas off the market.  The aforementioned Cameron had big production in 2013, but his concussion history makes him a significant long-term health risk.  

It's possible that Clay's offer sheet doesn't blow away the transition tag number, but rather stacks the numbers up front so that the cap-strapped Dolphins can't match.  Given how badly the Bills want to make a splash this offseason to challenge the Patriots, expect Buffalo to come away with another prize in its spring spending spree.

Prediction: Clay to Bills, five years, $37.5 million, $13 million guaranteed.