NFL Free-Agency Rumors: Buying or Selling the Latest Talk

Next week (Tuesday, March 10th to be exact) features both the start of the NFL's new league year and the opening of the free-agent market, as the business season begins in earnest.

And with a cavalcade of talented players set to hit the market, the scuttlebutt is spreading like wildfire, leading to questions about whether Player X will sign with Team Y or if Player X will take a discount to remain with Team Z. 

Thankfully, we're here to help you cut through the nonsense and determine which rumors are rooted in truth and which are naught but pipe dreams. In this column, we'll assess the latest morsels of news and buy or sell whether or not the hearsay will come to fruition.

It's time to buy or sell the latest talk as it concerns NFL free-agency rumors.

Will Patriots S Devin McCourty Accept Hometown Discount to Stay in New England?

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

On Monday, the New England Patriots applied the franchise tag to kicker Stephen Gostkowski, per ESPN, eschewing its usage on star safety Devin McCourty, who is now slated to become a free agent.

McCourty just helped the Patriots win the Super Bowl, and given the fact that he's only 27, the expectation should be that he'll become a very rich man when he eventually inks a free-agent contract. But will it be in New England?

We were flabbergasted when we found out the Patriots tagged Gostkowski instead of McCourty, which is an opinion that McCourty himself shared. He told ESPN's Josina Anderson this on Monday night:

"

I really didn't know (if New England would tag me).There was no real information from them on if it was going to be me or (Gostkowski). So I was kind of going off of what everybody else was going off, with what people were reporting as far as sources and all that. So, I guess it's more realistic now that (there's) a chance that I might not be back (in New England).

"

It's difficult to criticize the Patriots and coach Bill Belichick, who seemingly always come up aces when they make questionable personnel moves. Perhaps the team feels like it'll still be able to retain McCourty on a long-term deal, but it's likely that he'll receive larger offers elsewhere.

Will McCourty take a "hometown discount" to stay in New England and chase more Super Bowl titles? It's within the realm of possibility. But we'll bet that McCourty will sign with the highest bidder, and with a team that makes him feel wanted. And given his youth and skill set, he should have no shortage of suitors.

Verdict: SELL

Will Eagles WR Jeremy Maclin Re-Sign in Philadelphia?

Michael Perez/Associated Press

Last offseason, Philadelphia Eagles receiver Jeremy Maclin bet on himself when he signed a one-year deal to remain in the City of Brotherly Love—and his wager came up aces when he authored a spectacular campaign, hauling in 85 receptions for 1,318 yards and 10 touchdown grabs.

Now, Maclin is once again slated to become a free agent, and the question is whether or not he'll return to the Eagles.

Per Les Bowen of the Philadelphia Daily News, Maclin is optimistic about returning to Philadelphia, saying, "I've always said I want to be here in Philadelphia, but I've also always said I understand it's a business. Both sides have made it known that we both want each other back, so the rest of it is in God's hands. If it's supposed to happen, it'll happen. I want to be here."

Maclin later went on to imply that he's going to take his time with the free-agent process, meaning it could be a while before he signs with another squad. And that might be bad news for the Eagles.

One team that Bowen addresses in the column is the Kansas City Chiefs, who are in desperate need of receiver help. Maclin played on the collegiate level at the University of Missouri, so there is a familiarity there, and Kansas City's coach, Andy Reid, was Maclin's former coach in Philadelphia. While Kansas City is currently in a bit of a salary-cap pickle, they should be able to circumvent disaster with a series of roster moves, presenting them with enough space to theoretically sign Maclin.

If Maclin were really intent on staying in Philadelphia, it stands to reason that he'd be pumped to sign a deal and get it over with. His reticence to move quickly would seem to indicate that he's serious about testing the market—which makes this an easy sell.

Is it possible that Maclin will re-sign in Philadelphia? Yes. But this recent development makes it more likely that he'll sign elsewhere—perhaps in Kansas City.

Verdict: SELL

Will Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray Take More Money to Sign Elsewhere?

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

On Monday, the Dallas Cowboys applied the franchise tag to star receiver Dez Bryant, per ESPN's Todd Archer, ensuring the mercurial pass-catcher will be in Big D for at least one more season.

That means running back DeMarco Murray, the club's other big-name free agent, will be allowed to test the market. And it stands to reason that Murray, who led the NFL with 1,845 rushing yards in 2014, will make a pretty penny when he gets there.

Cowboys executive vice president and COO Stephen Jones is bullish about Murray remaining in Dallas, telling Mark Lane of FoxSports.com:

"

(Murray) is probably going to, you know, get some peace and see what's out in the market and then we'll talk and see. I do believe deep down he'd love to stay in Dallas. We've had some really good football players go into free agency: Jay Novacek and Darren Woodson and, you know, they still sign with the Cowboys. So, just because you're a free agent doesn't mean you're not necessarily going to end up back in Dallas.

"

Given that Bryant will be on the franchise tag—and the fact that Dallas isn't exactly flush with financial resources—it stands to reason that Murray will be offered more money by another team. The question will be whether or not he's willing to take less money to stay in a favorable situation and chase a Super Bowl championship in Dallas.

But at the end of the day, it's tough to imagine the 27-year-old Murray leaving money on the table in what will surely be his one and only big-money contract. It's feasible that he'd take less money to stay in Dallas, but that wouldn't be what's best for business. Murray should—and will—sign elsewhere.

Verdict: BUY

Will Former Cardinals DT Darnell Dockett Re-Sign with the Team That Cut Him?

Stephen Brashear/Associated Press

Quick: Which Arizona Cardinal was drafted in 2004, has played his entire career in the desert and nearly helped the team win a Super Bowl championship?

Yes, receiver Larry Fitzgerald would be an acceptable answer, but there's another player who also fits that profile: Defensive tackle Darnell Dockett, who was cut by the team last week in a transaction that netted $6.8 million in cap space.

The 33-year-old Dockett tore his ACL last August and missed the entire 2014 season, certainly aiding his ouster in Arizona. And now he's a free agent, able to sign with any team. But is it possible he'll return to Arizona? NFL.com's Chris Wesseling mentioned that as a possibility, and we're inclined to agree.

Despite authoring a tremendous career, the bottom line is that Dockett is 33, coming off a serious injury and clearly in the twilight of his playing days. Any franchise that bestows him with a big-money contract should fold immediately. It ain't gonna happen, playboy.

The Cardinals have built something special with coach Bruce Arians and general manager Steve Keim, and the duo surely knows that Dockett's on-field leadership is worth something—particularly with former defensive coordinator Todd Bowles now in New York as the Jets head coach. 

The smart money says Dockett will be back in Arizona after testing the market, and he'll once again seek to provide the franchise with its first-ever Super Bowl championship.

Verdict: BUY

Will the Jaguars Sign Broncos TE Julius Thomas?

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

Denver Broncos tight end Julius Thomas exploded onto the scene over the past two seasons, catching 24 touchdown passes (12 apiece in 2013 and 2014)—and he's now set to break the bank in free agency.

With the Broncos using the franchise tag on wide receiver Demaryius Thomas, it stands to reason that Julius will be moving on in short order once the free-agent period opens on March 10. One of the teams heavily rumored for his services is the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Mike Klis of The Denver Post writes that Thomas is "probably gone," and also notes that the Jaguars are expected to be an "aggressive pursuer" of Thomas. Klis' comments make sense given Jacksonville's need to inject the roster with playmakers and its staggering financial war chest (over $60 million in cap space).

The Jaguars might already have two viable tight ends on the roster (Marcedes Lewis and Clay Harbor), but neither possess the game-changing ability of Thomas, who is a legitimate red-zone nightmare and would certainly be a boon to quarterback Blake Bortles. Given Jacksonville's ridiculous amount of cap space, they could easily absorb his contract and not blink twice.

Will Jacksonville sign Thomas? It's certainly plausible. But the expectation should be that Thomas tests the market, and it shouldn't surprise anyone if and when he signs with the highest bidder. At this point, we're not sure it's going to be the Jaguars, who have pressing needs throughout the roster.

Verdict: SELL

Will the Colts Sign Ravens LB Pernell McPhee Away from Baltimore?

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Baltimore Ravens linebacker Pernell McPhee is the hidden gem of the 2015 free-agent class, having accumulated 7.5 sacks as a situational player last year. In fact, McPhee was so good that he finished the season ranked as Pro Football Focus' second-best 3-4 outside linebacker.

Now, McPhee is ready to hit free agency and claim a big-money contract. With the Ravens up against the salary-cap ceiling, the expectation is that he'll sign elsewhere. But where?

CBS Sports NFL insider Jason La Canfora recently reported that he expects McPhee could clear $10 million per season, and mentioned the Indianapolis Colts as a potential suitor for McPhee's services. And that makes a ton of sense.

Indianapolis possesses over $45 million in cap space and is in desperate need of pass-rushing oomph. McPhee would supply that, and he's also an adept run-stopper. And when you add in the fact that McPhee's former coordinator in Baltimore, Chuck Pagano, is the head coach in Indianapolis, this makes all the sense in the world.

We're buying that McPhee will no longer terrorize Andrew Luck (see the above picture), but instead get after the quarterback on the other side of the field. He'll be a Colt.

Verdict: BUY

Will Lions DT Ndamukong Suh Sign with the Raiders?

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

The deadline for franchise tags came and went on Monday, and the most notable bit of news involved a player who was not designated with the tag—Detroit Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh.

If the Lions had tagged Suh, his 2015 cap number would have come in at an outrageous $26.9 million. While the team certainly holds out hope that it'll be able to lock Suh up to a long-term deal, that just doesn't appear to be in the cards, homie.

The bottom line is that Suh, 28, is one of the finest players in the league—regardless of position. He's a game-changing force in the middle of a defensive line, adding toughness, physicality and attitude. There's no doubt he's the finest free agent on the market and will become an extremely rich man over the next few weeks.

But where will he sign? Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press recently mentioned five teams. OK, since the Lions were one, let's just call it four: the Raiders, Jaguars, Colts and Jets.

We believe that the Raiders will be the most likely suitor for Suh. Oakland has a ton of cap space and is prepared to loosen the financial purse strings in an effort to return the star-crossed franchise to respectability. Indeed, Ian Rapoport of NFL Media tweeted on Monday that the Raiders are ready to spend "a lot" once the market opens.

Suh is one of those players that seems like he was born to be a Raider, and he'd undoubtedly flourish in new coach Jack Del Rio's defense. We're going to buy Suh playing in 2015 and beyond with the Silver and Black.

Verdict: BUY

Can the Packers Work out a Long-Term Deal with WR Randall Cobb?

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

Last year, Green Bay Packers receiver Randall Cobb put forth a celestial campaign, catching 91 passes for 1,287 yards and 12 touchdown receptions. 

And given the fact that he's only 24 years old, it stands to reason that Cobb is set to be lavished with greenbacks in free agency. The question is not if he'll get paid—he most certainly will—but whether or not Green Bay will be the team bestowing him with the aforementioned greenbacks.

Per Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com, the Packers are still working to re-sign Cobb, while also noting that bringing Cobb back remains the club's top offseason priority. And given the proclivity of Green Bay's aerial attack under quarterback Aaron Rodgers, it makes all the sense in the world for general manager Ted Thompson and coach Mike McCarthy to covet Cobb's services.

But at the end of the day, Cobb is going to command too much money to remain at Lambeau Field. He's too young and too talented, and there's a team out there (we suspect it's the Raiders) that will break the bank to sign Cobb to a long-term deal. 

Plus, the Packers have Cobb's replacement already on the roster in Davante Adams, last year's second-round pick. Thompson has proved to be an adept drafter when it comes to the receiver position.

Do the Packers want to re-sign Cobb? Of course. But the most likely scenario is that he'll take more money to sign elsewhere. Don't be shocked if it's in Oakland.

Verdict: SELL