Will Wide Receivers Be the Next Position to Be Devalued?

With the proliferation of the wide-open college game creating batch after batch of impressive receiver classes, and more and more NFL teams finding productive pass-catchers outside the first round, it's fair to wonder if the receiver position could soon go the way of the running back in terms of draft value.

Running backs have been recently devalued in the NFL due to a leaguewide shift toward the passing game, the position's short shelf life and a greater ease in finding impact players later in the draft. 

No running back has been drafted in the first round over the last two years. And of the 13 backs that rushed for 1,000 or more yards a year ago, only Marshawn Lynch was originally taken within the first 32 picks (way back in 2007).

Meanwhile, five receivers went in the first round last spring, and all five—Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Brandin Cooks and Kelvin Benjamin—look like dynamo draft picks. Throw in a host of later-round values, and 2014 was a nothing short of a banner year at the position. 

The pass-happy NFL will continue to require impact receivers, but supply could eventually outweigh the demand.

“So many (college) teams run spread offenses and throw the ball so much, we’re seeing more receivers at this level that are much more polished,” San Diego Chargers general manager Tom Telesco said, via Ben Volin of The Boston Globe. “Most of these kids through high school, there are 7-on-7 camps in the summertime, and in college, these receivers have been running routes, and a lot of routes, for a long time."

	WRs Drafted	WRs in First 3 Rounds
2010	27	12
2011	28	11
2012	33	13
2013	28	11
2014	34	15*

There was a time in the not-so-distant past when every young football player wanted to be a running back. The position has since become a dime a dozen. Now that receiver is the new glamour position, the supply of quality pass-catchers has exploded in a similar fashion. 

“You’re seeing kids in high school now, colleges, the 7-on-7s in the offseason … the passing game has become dominant,” said ESPN's Todd McShay, per Terez Paylor of The Kansas City Star. “Now we’re seeing receivers who are used to catching 60, 70, 80 balls (in college) vs. when they used to catch 30, 40, 50 balls.”

In 2014, 39 college receivers at the FBS level caught at least 70 passes. Just 11 years ago, in 2004, the number was only 20. FBS schools have produced 29 100-catch seasons over the last three years, while only two receivers hit the century mark in '04. 

A wide-open college game based in spread principles has helped create more opportunities for receivers. In turn, the draftable pool of players at the position has increased exponentially. In the 2014 draft, 34 receivers were selected, with 15 of those coming in the first three rounds. 

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Just 20 running backs were picked, of which only eight were taken during the first two days. 

The NFL has simply adjusted to the trends of the college game, which serves as its de facto minor league. The professional product is more open now than ever in its history, with three- and four-receiver sets no longer gimmick but commonplace. 

It helps that the NFL can incorporate any kind of receiver into the modern pro offense. 

"They're trying to spread the ball and get it more into receivers' hands," former NFL receiver James Lofton told Jim Corbett of USA Today. "The physical skills—from a 5'9" guy like T.Y. Hilton of the Indianapolis Colts to a 6'5" guy like Mike (Evans)—there's no one body type that limits success."

Specialization has helped the position. Slot receivers such as Randall Cobb and Emmanuel Sanders can dominate the game with quickness. But so can the monoliths, using the newly popular back-shoulder throw and winnable jump balls to generate huge production. 

Bottom line: Receivers coming out of college today are more refined, experienced and diverse, providing the NFL with an easily digestible starting product at a position of increased importance. The barriers to entry are exceeding low. 

	Team	Rec	Yards	Drafted*
A. Brown	PIT	129	1698	6.195
D. Thomas	DEN	111	1619	1.22
J. Jones	ATL	104	1593	1.6
J. Nelson	GB	98	1519	2.36
E. Sanders	DEN	101	1404	3.82
T. Hilton	IND	82	1345	3.92
G. Tate	DET	99	1331	2.60
D. Bryant	DAL	88	1320	1.24
J. Maclin	PHI	85	1318	1.19
O. Beckham	NYG	91	1305	1.12
R. Cobb	GB	91	1287	2.64
D. Hopkins	HOU	76	1210	1.27
D. Jackson	WAS	56	1169	2.49
A. Jeffery	CHI	85	1133	2.45

There's also a much smoother transition from college to the pros today than in the past. The NFL has slowly but surely taken away the physical aspect of the passing game, creating far better opportunities for young receivers to step into the league and make an immediate impact. 

“With the rules of getting your hands off the guys at 5 (yards), (it) has allowed young receivers to come in and play quicker because the physicality part of it is the part that’s always been holding them back as rookies,” Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians said, via Paylor.

The five first-round receivers from a year ago averaged almost 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns between them. It was unprecedented production. 

But the combination of college preparation and changes in the NFL game have provided chances for later-round receivers to shine, too. 

Jordan Matthews, a second-round pick of the Philadelphia Eagles, finished fifth among rookies with 872 receiving yards. Jarvis Landry, taken in the third round by the Miami Dolphins, was second in receptions with 84. Cardinals third-rounder John Brown tallied 696 yards and five scores. Fourth-rounder Martavis Bryant caught eight scores for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Even Taylor Gabriel and Allen Hurns—undrafted receivers in the class—totaled more than 600 receiving yards as rookies. 

Overall, the 2014 class caught more passes for more receiving yards and touchdowns than any class before it. 

This year's class has big shoes to fill, but it also has plenty of talent, especially at the top. West Virginia's Kevin White, Alabama's Amari Cooper, Louisville's DeVante Parker, Missouri's Dorial Green-Beckham and Arizona State's Jaelen Strong highlight 2015's incoming receiver class. 

"It's a tremendous group," NFL Network's Mike Mayock told Corbett. "Their physical traits are comparable to last year's group."

If the draft continues turning out excellent batches of new receivers, the position may simply hit a saturation point—where the supply at receiver far outweighs the demand. 

For now, that's not the case. White, Cooper and Parker are expected to go within the first 10-12 picks, in large part because of talent but also because of team need. Yet more and more teams are filling needs at receiver with young, impact pass-catchers. A time may come when the majority of clubs feel very good at the position. 

Then again, there's still plenty of reason to believe running backs won't have a devalued partner. 

For starters, the receiver position doesn't fit all the same criteria. The NFL is at the height of its passing prowess, and receivers aren't as prone to injuries as running backs. Return on investment is strong, and many receivers drafted early receive second and third contracts. Unless either factor changes, receiver value will remain steady.

There's no question teams are getting great value in later rounds. The second and third rounds have been especially strong in recent years. Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson has made a living drafting and developing stud receivers in the second round.

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

But the more special talents are found in the first, the more NFL general managers will be content taking them early on. It is very difficult to imagine many decision-makers passing on talents such as Watkins, Evans or Beckham in the near future. 

Then again, winning rules all. The New England Patriots just won the Super Bowl with Tom Brady throwing to the likes of Julian Edelman (seventh-round pick) and Brandon LaFell (signed for $3 million per season) at receiver. The Seahawks failed to defend their crown, but they also nearly made a Super Bowl hero out of unknown and undrafted receiver Chris Matthews. 

Having a stud at receiver is nice, but it is hardly a requirement for winning big in the NFL. 

The economics suggest receivers could face a value crisis in the future. When supply expands and demand tightens, prices must adjust accordingly. One predictable result would be NFL teams putting less emphasis on the receiver position in the NFL draft, much like clubs have done with running backs. 

But nothing in the NFL is ever this simple. The pro game remains heavily dependent on passing the football, and receivers—now more than ever—are providing excellent return on investment, at least numbers-wise. 

Don't expect receivers to suddenly evaporate from the first round or become a position of investment taboo. However, the saturation of the market has created conditions necessary for the position to slowly lose value in coming years. 

Zach Kruse covers the NFC North for Bleacher Report. 

Follow @zachkruse2