Daily Fantasy Basketball 2015: NBA DraftKings Strategy for Sunday, Feb. 22
I don’t know about you, but I’m still recovering from the trade deadline. It was the most hectic deadline day of all time; according to ESPN's Trade Tracker, 8 percent of the league changed addresses!
But with major change comes major opportunity. On Friday, rookie second-round pick Spencer Dinwiddie started at point guard for the Pistons and outplayed former league MVP Derrick Rose. The former Colorado Buffalo scored 12 points, dished out nine assists and only had two turnovers as his Pistons toppled the Bulls 100-91.
Unfortunately for Dinwiddie, Piston newcomer and former Oklahoma City Thunder pariah Reggie Jackson is scheduled to start this afternoon. So the question must be asked: Who will be today’s Spencer Dinwiddie?
To put it another way: Who will play well in starter minutes after an extended stint as a reserve?
Isaiah Thomas ($5,200) vs. Los Angeles Lakers
It could be Isaiah Thomas, who absolutely feasts on the Lakers’ guards. In four games against the Lakers this season, Thomas is averaging 39.4 fantasy points in less than 27 minutes per game. He’s shot over 50 percent in all four games and has three or more steals in the last three contests.
At this point, the slight point guard is not listed as the Celtics' starter, but Thomas averaged 20 real-life points per game last year as the full-time starter for the Sacramento Kings. A backup all season for the Phoenix Suns, Thomas should see a huge increase in minutes per game as the primary ball-handler in Boston.
Per RotoGrinders.com, the Lakers allow an average of 50 fantasy points per game to opposing point guards—three more points than any other team. That, coupled with the game’s projected fast pace of play, should help Thomas exceed his value.
Victor Oladipo ($6,900) vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Oladipo has averaged nearly 34 fantasy points per game since January 1. But his value is most evident in his consistency. In that period, he never scored fewer than 25 fantasy points.
The poor 76ers allow the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards, and in their only prior contest, Oladipo got busy. The kid put up 23 points, three boards, three assists and three steals, good enough for 36.3 fantasy points.
Demarre Carroll ($5,200) vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Demarre Carroll is a no-frills type of player. He’s not his team’s first offensive option. He doesn’t command a double-team, throw down fancy-schmancy dunks or taunt opponents with obscene gestures.
The Hawks’ offense is based on quick ball movement and the idea that one should always pass up a good shot for a great one. Atlanta’s offensive scheme allows Carroll, who most would consider to be the Hawks' fifth offensive option, to shoot 39.5 percent while hoisting 4.3 three-point attempts per game.
But Carroll gets his fantasy points in a variety of ways. He’s tallied three steals in each of his last three games and he’s always a threat to scoop up a couple of three-point bonuses. That’s part of the reason he’s scored at least 21 fantasy points in five straight contests.
Even though the Bucks play at a slow pace and have a generally stout defense, they struggle against opposing swingmen. Carroll is the prototypical swingman in today’s NBA. I expect a solid outing from the former Missouri Tiger.
Brandon Bass ($5,200) vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Brandon Bass has been knocking down mid-range jumpers for almost 10 seasons. But for the majority of the 2014-15 campaign, his minutes were limited because he backed up Jared Sullinger.
But Sullinger went down with a foot injury over the All-Star break. And on Friday in Sacramento, Bass scored 13 points and grabbed 10 boards in his first game back in the starting lineup.
One interesting new wrinkle to the Boston offense will be the addition of the aforementioned Isaiah Thomas. He’s a massive upgrade in the pick-and-roll game, and Bass should be the main benefactor until Sullinger gets healthy.
Nikola Vucevic ($8,400) vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Vucevic is pricey. He’s actually the most expensive center on the board. But tonight is a cream-puff matchup for the big Montenegrin.
Philadelphia currently gives up the most fantasy points in the league to opposing centers. And with all these replacement players getting starts, you have to spend up somewhere. This is that somewhere. Shell it out for Big Nik, because if this game stays close, Vuc will play big minutes and deliver a monster stat line.
Kyrie Irving ($8,000) vs. New York Knicks
Kyrie Irving was ridiculed for not facilitating the offense earlier this season. People complained about his me-first mentality and specifically pointed out a game against Utah in which he scored 34 points but dished out exactly zero dimes.
Well, Kyrie is rounding out his game. In February, he’s averaging 21.1 points, 4.4 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game.
Uncle Drew tends to step up when the lights are the brightest. Though he’s not yet 23, he’s already won an All-Star Game MVP and was crowned MVP of Team USA for the most recent FIBA World Championships in Spain.
Oh yeah, and in four career games at Madison Square Garden, Irving is averaging 31 points, 4.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists.
The Knicks are below-average on the defensive end but shut down opposing small forwards better than anyone in the league. If ever there was a game for Lebron James to struggle and Kyrie to carry the Cavs to a road win, this is that game.
Serge Ibaka ($6,600) vs. Denver Nuggets
Oklahoma City just made several trades to remake their bench unit. They also will be without Kevin Durant for this afternoon’s showdown with the Nuggets, according to ESPN.com's Royce Young.
Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. Denver currently starts four players with defensive ratings above 106, per Basketball-Reference.com. This season the league average is 105.7.
Denver also allows a sky-high 47.1 fantasy points to opposing power forwards. Look for the Thunder to rely on a healthy dosage of Ibaka in a high-scoring affair.
Jerryd Bayless ($4,400) vs. Atlanta Hawks
With Michael Carter-Williams sidelined, Jerryd Bayless will start his second game in a row for the Bucks. Against Denver on Friday, Bayless nearly recorded his first career triple-double.
Atlanta is much better defensively than Denver against point guards, but for Milwaukee to keep this game close, Bayless will have to carry a heavy offensive burden.
