Seattle Mariners: Brad Miller or Chris Taylor? Examining the Shortstop Battle

With the offseason winding down, the weather warming up and the NFL season over, all signs are pointing to Peoria, Arizona, where the Seattle Mariners pitchers and catchers report in nine days (Feb. 20).

General manager Jack Zduriencik made a laundry list of moves in an attempt to bring Seattle from a game away from the playoffs to one that can contend for the American League West and potentially a World Series.

The outfield has been shored up, with acquisitions of Justin Ruggiano, Seth Smith and Austin Jackson (at the 2014 trade deadline). The black hole that was the designated hitter last season has been filled with 2014's AL home run champion, Nelson Cruz.

But the Mariners' success in 2015 will come down to the development of their second- and third-year players, especially at shortstop. Zduriencik spent the offseason complementing the existing core of the team. Now, the core has to take the next step.

Brad Miller entered last season coming off a scorching-hot spring training, in which he earned the starting shortstop job after posting a 1.314 OPS. At the time, Chris Taylor was a smooth-fielding minor leaguer with a lot left to learn.

But by midseason, the man Miller beat out for the starting job, Nick Franklin, was traded to Tampa Bay and Taylor had usurped the shortstop spot from Miller. By Game 162, the two were splitting time up the middle and errant trade speculation had already begun to surface. (That's not to say neither could be dealt, but it hasn't come to fruition yet.) Via FanGraphs, here is a look at their respective performances in 2014.

Name	PA	AVG	OPS	wRC+	BABIP	WAR
Brad Miller	411	.221	.653	86	.268	1.4
Chris Taylor	151	.287	.693	103	.398	1.4

Seattle doesn't enter the spring with many position battles. There may be one to decide which starters make the rotation behind Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma, but none is as pressing as the one at shortstop.

Despite his underwhelming performance last season, Miller still has the statistical advantage. His extra season or so of major league experience could also factor in. In 2013, Miller burst onto the scene in a similar fashion to his 2014 spring training. In 76 games, he posted 1.8 WAR (0.4 more than his full 2014 season) and hit .265.

Taylor, while posting gaudy on-base numbers, has been the beneficiary of incredibly high BABIPs through his time in both the minors and majors. Since his 2012 low-A debut, he's yet to post one lower than the .333 he had in 53 plate appearances in A-ball that season.

Chris Taylor BABIP

Year	BABIP	OBP	BB%
'12 (low-A)	.361	.430	12.7
'12 (A)	.333	.373	3.8
'13 (high-A)	.407	.426	13.8
'13 (AA)	.368	.391	13.3
'14 (AAA)	.412	.397	10.1
'14 (MLB)	.398	.347	7.3

While drooling at Taylor's ability to reach base, just keep in mind that it comes with a risk of falling apart in the event his unsustainable BABIP indeed doesn't sustain itself. 

Miller, on the other hand, battled career-worst luck last season in the middle of some other disturbing trends. He hit just .268 on balls in play, which would rank 132nd among qualified players, between Domonic Brown and Chris Carter, if Miller had enough plate appearances. If Taylor had qualified, his would lead the league by 25 points (Starling Marte led qualified players with a .373 rate).

It wasn't just bad luck that plagued Miller last season, though. Ever since reaching the big leagues, Miller hasn't been fond of walks (7.2 percent walk rate in 2013 and 8.3 in 2014). But he struck out at an alarming 23.1 percent rate, an almost eight-percentage-point jump from his MLB debut and a large deviation from the mean of his career.

Since his professional debut in 2011, Miller has struck out in 18.2 percent of his plate appearances—not exceptional but not bad, either. If qualified, Miller would have ranked 23rd-highest last season, between Yan Gomes and Chase Headley.

Can't make up your mind? Not to worry; there are more solutions than appear at surface level. Miller and Taylor are both athletic, giving each more positional flexibility than the average player. Though neither has a wealth of experience in the outfield, 710 ESPN's Shannon Drayer speculated a position change for Miller could be in works, based on these comments from Zduriencik on the station's air.

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"The alternatives I think that we are going to end up with in the outfield I think will be enough to really satisfy what we need," Zduriencik said on the Danny, Dave and Moore Show. "It's still a little bit of an unknown. We have internal guys that could go a platoon route. We've talked about some other players in our organization possibly playing elsewhere, and one of them could be in the outfield. We'll see. We will keep these discussions going on. It will be interesting not only now through the winter meetings, into spring training, and who knows what happens in spring training."

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He made these comments on Dec. 4—before the acquisitions of Smith and Ruggiano. The outfield looks full now, but it lacks many proven players. If Dustin Ackley, Austin Jackson, Smith or Ruggiano doesn't perform up to standard, Miller could potentially be a back-up option.

Ultimately, though, the loser of this position battle will likely be sent to Triple-A Tacoma and start at short there. An outside chance remains that the loser sticks around and plays a utility role, but without consistent at-bats, that seems unlikely. Either way, as last season proved, no job is safe, and the other can't be counted out unless he is no longer in the organization.

Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

 Evan Webeck is a junior at Arizona State University, studying journalism at the Walter Cronkite School. He's interned at Sports Illustrated and covered ASU football. Follow him on Twitter or email him at [e-mail].