New England, You're Not Dreaming: Tom Brady Is Fantasy Football's Top QB
One preseason game. That's all it took to realize Tom Brady is the top fantasy football quarterback for 2009.
Putting Brady at the top of the list over Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Kurt Warner shouldn't be a major surprise to anyone, especially with a second round Average Draft Position early on in the fantasy football preseason.
In his last 20 competitive football games, Brady has averaged 280.9 passing yards, 2.8 touchdown passes, and 0.55 interceptions per game. In comparison, Brees averaged 316.8, 2.1, and 1.0 last season.
The only reason Brady hasn't been considered the consensus top quarterback is because in his last game that mattered, he left in the first quarter with an injury and did not return for the rest of the season.
Looking good in his first preseason game since Aug. 24, 2007, Brady stood tall in the pocket and connected on 10 of 15 passes for 100 yards and two touchdowns to former Jets tight end Chris Baker (who just declared himself the top fantasy sleeper tight end).
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Brady wasn't flawless though; Sheldon Brown intercepted a pass to Randy Moss at the end of the first quarter—an interception Brady was outraged with. Turnovers are not tolerated by Brady, so don't expect many of them from him.
Even in preseason, Brady's play served as a how-to for the quarterback position, and he left the Pats with a 21-6 lead, earning a nice boost from a punt return touchdown.
Many put the league-high 47 sacks Matt Cassel took on New England's offensive line, when it was due to injuries, unfamiliarity among teammates, and a quarterback who lacks the decision-making ability of Tom Brady. That sack total was more than double 2007's 21 for Brady and actually equals the number of times he has been sacked in the last 37 regular season games.
The Pats' offensive line was not nearly as bad as Cassel's play made them look, and those sacks have little relevance to Brady’s 2009 season.
Now Cassel did have a successful season in terms of wins and statistics, including back-to-back 400-yard games, but he had a pension for rushing the football, leading all quarterbacks with 73 attempts.
The scrambling quarterback's unpredictability allows him to break timely runs, but it also results in plenty of sacks because the line doesn't always know what space the quarterback occupies in order to protect it.
The best example of this is Michael Vick's 45 sacks in 2006, his last season of play.
With fewer sacks, the Patriots offense will dictate more drives. Brady has the arm to get Moss the ball deep—something Cassel struggled with—and when he connects with Wes Welker, it's the definition of "pitch and catch."
Don't forget the Pats also added Joey Galloway and Fred Taylor, along with the aforementioned Baker, to keep the ball rolling down the field all the way to the end zone.
You can expect another dominant performance from Tom Brady in 2009, and he is a must-pick in the third round of any fantasy football draft. As the hype grows, anticipate him going anywhere from 1-20 in drafts, so it is appropriate to draft Brady at any time—but I’ll still take Adrian Peterson with the first pick.
Send questions to iwantstats@iwantstats.com for the MailBag Show or Tweet me @JohnLorge.
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