With All Eyes on Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley Could Be the Steal of Free Agency

Ndamukong Suh will become one of the most coveted free-agent defensive players in NFL history if he reaches the open market in March. 

Following right behind him will likely be fellow free agent Nick Fairley, who is currently flying under the radar as one of free agency's potential bargain buys.

There's certainly no questioning Suh's value. Drafted No. 2 overall in 2010, Suh has been uniquely disruptive, productive and reliable—providing 36 sacks, five All-Pro selections and zero missed games due to injury. He will rightfully command a new contract nearing or exceeding $100 million total and $50 million guaranteed.

Fairley is much harder to pin down, in terms of both on-field ability and contractual value. 

His four-year career with the Detroit Lions is splattered with flashes of brilliance, bouts of inconsistency and issues with availability. Since the Lions drafted him with the 13th pick in 2011, Fairley has produced just 13.5 sacks and four forced fumbles while missing 18 of his 64 potential games. He also has more off-the-field incidents with the law (two) than Pro Bowl trips (zero). 

The Lions declined his fifth-year club option last spring, which former NFL agent Joel Corry believes was an oversight. 

"Detroit made a mistake by not exercising the 2015 option year for Fairley at $5.477 million as insurance against Suh leaving," Corry said. 

The Lions could still give Fairley the franchise tag, but such a decision would hurt Detroit's chances of bringing back Suh, the team's top offseason priority. It seems unlikely general manager Martin Mayhew would use the tag on either player, and it seems even more unlikely that the Lions will make a decision on Fairley before Suh. Both have a strong chance of reaching free agency, which officially begins March 10. 

Red flags still figure to drive Fairley's price down on the open market. While his physical talent is obvious, the week-to-week product on the field has been frustratingly inconsistent. 

Below are Fairley's game-by-game grades at Pro Football Focus, starting in 2011 and extending through 2013: 

Pro Football Focus

Pro Football Focus

Pro Football Focus

Notice the pattern? 

Fairley can be dominant some weeks. He is at times unblockable—a rock against the run and a surprisingly athletic and agile pass-rusher inside. He can point to games such as his rookie year against Carolina, a 2012 home meeting with the Green Bay Packers or a 2013 contest with the New York Giants as evidence of his ability to control the line of scrimmage and dominate a game in the backfield. 

But for every green-graded game, Fairley has another in the red, in which he's a complete nonfactor or nearing a liability.

"He still has been inconsistent," former head coach Jim Schwartz told Paula Pasche of The News-Herald in November 2013. "He played very well in spurts. I think that was encouraging, but there has also been some inconsistency."

Schwartz's comments came after a win over the Chicago Bears, in which Fairley managed a 15-yard roughing the quarterback penalty, a sack and a run stop of Chicago's two-point try—all on the final drive of the contest. 

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

His availability is also in question. Talent means next to nothing while wearing sweats on the sideline. And Fairley has spent far too much time outside the white lines since entering the NFL, with zero seasons playing 16 games and three of four missing at least three games.  

As a rookie, Fairley missed six games after eventually needing surgery to repair a foot injury suffered in training camp. Shoulder injuries cost him three games in 2012 and one in 2013, before a sprained MCL and PCL kept Fairley out of the final eight games and the postseason in 2014. 

Teams will also be wary about Fairley's two prior arrests—one for marijuana possession in April 2012 and another for driving under the influence and attempting eluding police a month later. The off-the-field incidents are especially relevant, as Fairley may be subject to suspension by the league office if another problem arises.  

If his first three seasons provided reason for caution, Fairley's year in 2014 gave a brief glimpse of what a team in need of a defensive tackle could be getting in the 27-year-old. 

The Lions' decision to decline his fifth-year option provided the necessary motivation to get his weight under control. Per Tim Twentyman of the Lions' official site, Fairley hired a personal chef and eliminated fast food from his diet. The results showed. Playing at a healthy weight for maybe the first time in his career, Fairley delivered his most consistent eight-game stretch since joining in the NFL in 2011. 

Notice the prevalence of green in his 2014 chart at PFF:

Pro Football Focus

His baseline numbers weren't overwhelming. Fairley registered just one sack and 14 tackles over eight games before two sprained ligaments in his knee cost him the rest of the season. But PFF paints a much brighter picture. 

Over roughly 300 snaps, Fairley was responsible for 17 quarterback hurries and three hits, plus 10 run stops. Suh played almost 900 snaps and finished with 37 hurries and 12 hits. Both were No. 1 at their position. Fairley was on pace—provided a similar 900-snap sample—to create 51 hurries and nine hits. Even a 600-snap sample had Fairley on pace for 34 hurries, which would have finished third at defensive tackle. 

Bottom line: He was well on his way to a dominant season. 

Teams with interest will eventually have difficult questions to answer. How much do Fairley's first three seasons drive down his value? And how much does his start to 2014 balance out the early red flags? 

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

Corry believes Fairley will still see a healthy offer on the open market. 

"He's among the top free agent defensive tackles after Suh," Corry said. "It wouldn't surprise me if he landed a deal in the same neighborhood or better than Arthur Jones and Paul Soliai." 

Jones signed a five-year, $33 million deal with the Indianapolis Colts in 2014. The contract averaged $6.6 million per year and included $16 million in guarantees, per Spotrac.

Soliai received $32 million over five years from the Atlanta Falcons, also in 2014. His deal averaged $6.4 million and included $11 million in guarantees, per Spotrac.

Herein lies the potential bargain in Fairley. A price tag of $6.5 million per year with $10-15 million in guarantees isn't exactly a steep investment for a player with the potential to be one of the game's more dominant inside defenders. There is inherent risk—remember, Fairley has played next to a Hall of Fame-caliber player his entire career—but the upside is tantalizing. 

Suh will dominate the headlines between now and March, especially in Detroit and most other NFL locales. He will soon be paid a hefty sum.

Fairley is far more polarizing, given his relative inconsistency and injury history. He has a high bust factor, but also a high potential reward. If Fairley can carry over what he started in 2014, some lucky team is going to get a difference-maker at a discounted price this spring. 

All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.

Zach Kruse covers the NFC North for Bleacher Report. 

Follow @zachkruse2