UFC on Fox 14 Fight Card: Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions

UFC on Fox 14 hits Stockholm this Saturday, and a light heavyweight title shot is on the line in the main event.

No. 1-ranked contender Alexander Gustafsson seeks a rematch with Jon Jones, while No. 3-ranked Anthony Johnson tries to thwart the Swede and capture his first UFC title shot.

Also in action will be middleweights Gegard Mousasi and Dan Henderson. This marks Henderson's return to the middleweight division for the first time since losing to Jake Shields in 2010. Light heavyweights Ryan Bader and Phil Davis will also have their chance to shine on the big stage as well.

2015 has started well for the UFC, and this card promises to keep the ball rolling.

We will take a look at all four main card matchups and their betting lines. Where is the value on this card, and who has the best shot at getting his hand raised as the victor? Here is the analysis you need before heading off to place your bets.

Sam Sicilia (+100) vs. Akira Corassani (-130)

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The opening fight of the main card is a well-matched fight between two middling featherweights.

Akira Corassani and Sam Sicilia have seen ups and downs in their UFC careers. Corassani has lost his last two fights, and Sicilia is 3-4 in his UFC career. Each has failed to win against the upper tier of the division.

The last time Corassani was in the cage, it was in Sweden, where Max Holloway knocked him out in front of all his friends and family. There is a distinct chance that happens again given Sicilia's power, but he isn't near as proficient as Holloway.

This fight is too close to call, and the stakes are too small to justify the risk. You are best off just enjoying this fight. I lean toward Corassani. He should avoid the power punching of Sicilia before getting him to the canvas to submit him.

Prediction: Corassani, Submission, Round 2

The Play: Skip this fight

Phil Davis (-260) vs. Ryan Bader (+200)

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Ryan Bader has looked good in his recent bouts. He has put together a three-fight win streak, but this will be his first foray back into the upper echelon of the division.

Davis is coming off a key win over Glover Teixeira. The victory moved him up to No. 5 in the official UFC divisional rankings. Bader comes in at No. 7 to make this a Top 10 tilt in the light heavyweight division. The winner moves into title contention and may just be one win away from a shot at gold.

While Bader has looked much better lately, what he does well, Davis does better. That's the issue at hand for him on Saturday.

This is a great matchup for Davis, and he should not have too much issue dominating the action. He gets to choose where the fight takes place. Bader will have to stun Davis with an exceptional game plan to come out on top. And the plus-200 odds aren't steep enough for me to suggest taking a flier on him.

Davis cruises to victory, and you should feel comfortable with him more than anyone else on the main card.

Prediction: Phil Davis, Decision

The Play: Be comfortable with Davis at any value

Gegard Mousasi (-500) vs. Dan Henderson (+350)

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This matchup should play in Mousasi's favor. The key word is "should."

Mousasi's technical boxing and fight IQ will likely be nightmares for Henderson. The former PRIDE and Strikeforce champion loads up on his big right hand too often for someone as smart and tactical as Mousasi, but Mousasi is hittable. That is why I like taking a chance on Henderson at the current odds.

According to FightMetric, the official UFC stats provider, Mousasi defends 70 percent of significant strikes.

Henderson is well past his prime and slow. It's why Mousasi's odds are so steep, and why I feel he will win a 30-27 decision across the board. Still, I don't like counting out Henderson in this fight. One punch is all it takes.

He still has the ability to land it.

If you don't feel Henderson will land it, then avoid the fight, as there isn't any value on Mousasi, but I'm telling you there is a chance. Just don't risk your bank on it. Be conservative.

Prediction: Mousasi, Decision

The Play: A small flier on Henderson

Alexander Gustafsson (-275) vs. Anthony Johnson (+215)

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The main event this weekend is stellar. We got to see Gustafsson reach his potential against Jon Jones and then rebound from that loss with an easy victory against Jimi Manuwa. Meanwhile, Johnson has performed phenomenally since returning to the UFC.

The plus-215 odds on a dynamic striker such as Johnson are tempting. He also has quality wrestling that he can mix in as well. He is a live dog—a live dog that I would avoid.

Gustafsson is hitting his stride right now. His length will make it difficult for Johnson to get inside, and his submission skills will ultimately be the difference. Johnson has faded in fights in the past. Some may say that had to do with the weight cut, but regardless that worry is there.

The former title contender keeps a high pace going and has proved to be able to go five rounds. Johnson has not.

Johnson's best shot comes early. Once Gustafsson finds his range, it will be difficult to imagine Johnson landing the KO blow. Gustafsson will keep him on the outside. Once Johnson starts to fade, Gustafsson will put him on the mat with his improved wrestling and then submit him to put an emphatic stamp on his title contention status.

Gustafsson proves his top contender ranking on Saturday in the main event.

Prediction: Gustafsson, Submission, Round 3

The Play: A moderate play on Gustafsson

Just-for-Fun Full Card Parlay: Chris Beal, Konstantin Erokhin, Mirsad Bektic, Mairbek Taisumov, Nikita Krylov, Andy Ogle, Kenny Robertson, Nico Musoke, Akira Corassani, Phil Davis, Gegard Mousasi, Alexander Gustafsson

All odds provided by OddsShark.com.