NBA Draft Notebook: Better 2015 Prospect, Montrezl Harrell or Kevon Looney?
There's a good chance the 2015 NBA draft class will be defined by its big men. But not just the 7-footers and anchors in the middle. The NCAA power forward crew is led by a couple of dynamite young prospects.
You knew Louisville junior Montrezl Harrell would find himself in the mix after a breakout sophomore year. UCLA's Kevon Looney wasn't as obvious.
Looney has been one of the most productive freshmen in the country while showcasing the NBA tools and skills that fuel some eye-opening long-term upside.
Meanwhile, Harrell has blown up as a National Player of the Year candidate after passing on the likelihood of getting picked in the 2014 first round.
After three years of gradually improving his stock, Harrell would seem like a lock to declare in 2015. And you'd imagine Looney would do the same, having already generated top-10 buzz on a fairly lousy team.
Despite their difference in age, Harrell and Looney have each played similar roles in their respective rotations:
| Kevon Looney | 32.1 | 20.7% | 9.7 | |
| Montrezl Harrell | 31.9 | 21.6% | 10.1 |
And they've both put up similar numbers:
| Points | FG Percentage | Rebounds | Assists | Blocks | 3PM-A | |
| Kevon Looney | 13.0 | 46.0% | 10.3 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 7-of-23 |
| Montrezl Harrell | 14.9 | 57.3% | 9.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 7-of-29 |
Harrell and Looney have posed as double-double machines, a label that speaks to their outlooks and plays to their appeal as NBA prospects.
Looney has actually been the bigger presence on the offensive glass, where he's got 17 more boards and six more putbacks, per Hoop-Math, playing one extra game (through January 19).
Though Looney's active and aggressive, it's his nose for the ball that ultimately separates him as a rebounder. His instincts are terrific—he's one of those guys who always seems to land in the right place at the right time.
You'll often see Looney time his crash and come out of nowhere for an out-of-area board.
"It’s something you can control," Looney told Vincent Bonsignore of the Los Angeles Daily News. "I know I can rebound, that’s something I feel I can do with anybody."
On the other hand, Harrell's presence on the glass is powered by strength and a charged motor. Compared to Looney, he's got an additional 20 pounds of muscle he uses to battle through contact, while you could argue his energy level has been higher and more consistent.
| Size | Weight | Wingspan | |
| Montrezl Harrell | 6'8" | 240 | 7'3" |
| Kevon Looney | 6'9" | 220 | 7'3" |
You won't find a pure measurement for athleticism, but Harrell is undoubtedly the more explosive 4. And quite frankly, that's the primary driving force behind his next-level potential.
Harrell is a monster on the interior, where he's shooting a ridiculous 85.4 percent clip at the rim. Between lobs and dumps off drive-and-dishes, Harrell finishes everything thanks to the jet pack that's seemingly strapped to his back.
In comparison, Looney is shooting just 55.7 percent at the rim, a below-average number for a guy his size.
In terms of low-post games, neither prospect is exactly polished. Harrell is the bigger threat to score with his back to the rim, where we've at least seen him hop-step into the lane for jump hooks or drop-step toward the block for one-handed banks.
Still, Harrell isn't overly smooth with the ball, and if a defender takes away his first move or driving lane, he struggles to counter. Despite his production, Louisville doesn't quite feature him as a go-to scorer.
Looney hasn't looked overly confident in the post at UCLA.
None of his field goals came off post moves during either of his two best games of the year (from a scouting perspective) against Gonzaga on December 13 and Stanford January 8.
However, he did generate offense in a variety of other different ways, which is ultimately what drives his versatility and taller NBA ceiling.
Versatility vs. One-Dimensional Dominance
While Harrell has been the more dominant scorer in the paint, he doesn't possess the comfort or ball-skill level Looney operates with on the perimeter.
And that's where Looney's mismatch potential comes into play. At 6'9" with long arms, his ability to step outside and face the basket could be awfully tough for slower-footed big men to match up with.
During his 27-point, 19-rebound outburst against Stanford, he nailed two three-pointers and beat his man twice off the dribble from the wing, one resulting in a layup, the other in free throws.
He also took two defensive rebounds coast to coast, using six dribbles on each trip. Looney got fouled on the first attempt before throwing down a slam on the second.
He nailed three jumpers against Gonzaga, one squared up, another off the catch and a third he created himself with a step-back crossover.
While Harrell's jumper has looked better, he's also had two additional years to work on it, yet it's still a significant weakness keeping his NBA ceiling in check.
He made just one of six jumpers against Duke on Saturday, and at this point, you almost want to nod your head in disapproval whenever he attempts them. Harrell's mechanics and touch are shaky (shooting 61.3 percent from the line, sadly, a career high), and that hasn't changed since 2013.
You have to wonder if he'd still be shooting from outside had he not hit three triples and nine of 10 foul shots on opening night against Minnesota. Since then, Harrell has made just four of 25 shots from behind the arc and 56.9 percent of his free throws.
Projections
Harrell will essentially enter the draft with a cushion supported by athleticism and energy. If all else fails, his ability to finish, rebound, run the floor and play physical defense seems like a lock to carry over.
And in that sense, Harrell has established himself as one of the safer options in the field. Worst comes to worst, we're probably looking at a J.J. Hickson or Amir Johnson type, with Kenneth Faried as more of the ceiling comparison to strive for.
But while Harrell's strengths have gotten stronger during his three-year career at Louisville, not much has changed with regard to his weaknesses. Considering he's still a poor shooter and an unpolished one-on-one scorer, an offensive breakout seems less likely.
Even so, odds are Harrell can carve out a niche for himself as an interior specialist, something many teams could use.
However, without the ability to shoot or create, particularly by his junior season, Harrell's ceiling falls a story or two short of Looney's. In just one year, Looney has matched him as a rebounder while flashing the perimeter skills Harrell has struggled to develop over three.
Looney is still a bit raw, but between the promising jumper, face-up attack and his rebounding ability, we could eventually be talking about one of the most versatile forwards in the game.
"I think he has all the skills to be an NBA small forward," one scout told ESPN's Chad Ford. "The more you see him in practice, the more you know there's more there than he's showing in games right now."
To reach on Looney, you'd just need a little extra faith and patience toward his development, both physically and fundamentally. But at 18 years old with a basketball body, he's got the time and room to grow.
If I'm a general manager for a rebuilding franchise that can afford to wait on results, I'm taking my chances on Looney, the bigger yet potentially more rewarding NBA project.
However, for general managers with established rosters seeking out immediate help up front, it would be tough to knock the idea of targeting Harrell, whose physical presence should translate sooner rather than later.
Notables
A wild card in the NBA draft conversation, Kentucky freshman Trey Lyles gives you the feeling he could end up going anywhere in the first round whenever he declares.
He's playing just 21.8 minutes a game and averaging 7.8 points and 5.6 rebounds, but it's the efficiency and refined offensive game that's allowed him to stand out.
At 6'10", Lyles has a sweet stroke, particularly in the mid-range. He's making 45.3 percent of his two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math, flashing the pick-and-pop stretch potential NBA teams are coveting more than ever.
Lyles isn't the athlete that Harrell or Looney is, but he's still finishing at a terrific 78.6 percent clip at the rim (great body control), while his overall skill level and basketball IQ (13.1 percent assist percentage, better than Harrell's 8.2 percent and Looney's 11 percent) are both a lot sharper.
Though Lyles doesn't jump out of the gym or shine as an isolation scorer, his jumper and feel as a passer are both very NBA-friendly.
- Ohio State freshman D'Angelo Russell is starting to run away as the top guard prospect in America. He's now scored at least 21 points in five of his last seven games, shooting 23-of-48 from deep. But despite all the scoring, Russell still projects as an NBA point guard. His passing instincts are just spectacular. If a team in the top five of the draft is seeking out a new lead guard, I wouldn't blame it for targeting Russell, who at 6'5" with awesome vision and a lethal outside stroke has floor general potential.
- Duke freshman wing Justise Winslow has seemingly taken a step back after a strong start. He's scored just five points total against Louisville and Miami. Winslow's limited ball skills have been exposed against set defenses, as he really struggles to create his own shot. Nothing has changed with regard to his big-time NBA potential, but whoever drafts him will need major patience.
- Indiana freshman James Blackmon Jr. is quietly averaging 16.6 points a game on 41.5 percent shooting from deep. He's been a microwave—one of those guys who can catch fire and knock down contested shots with range. At 6'4", Blackmon lacks burst, but he can handle the ball and shoot from anywhere. He may be more of a 2016 draft candidate, but Blackmon has definitely become a name to watch.
All stats courtesy of sports-reference.com, realgm.com, hoop-math.com.
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