NFL Playoff Bracket 2015: Complete Guide to the AFC Championship Game

The wheels of the NFL just keep turning. 

Last week during the divisional round, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck defeated the Denver Broncos, a team led by quarterback Peyton Manning. Manning, who had been entirely defined by a fantastic career as a Colt, may not have ever been the "teacher" to Luck's "pupil," but one could almost feel the catharsis of the city of Indianapolis as the victory carried even more meaning than a normal playoff win. 

Now, Luck goes head to head with the New England Patriots and quarterback Tom Brady. 

If any team knows about the transformative nature of the sands of time when it comes to the NFL, it's the Patriots, who have redefined themselves a number of times with head coach Bill Belichick and Brady at the helm. 

They've never shied away from letting important veterans walk, nor have they let themselves be defined by a certain scheme or personnel group. The moment anyone thinks they have the Patriots pegged as a certain kind of team, they flip the script. 

This year, the Patriots have become a defensive-minded squad, allowing only 19.6 points per game. Offensively, they've still maintained some dominance but have continued to find ways to win apart from the sort of high-flying passing numbers Brady is used to. 

For the Colts, though, it's all on Luck...the heir apparent to Brady's throne as one of the top NFL quarterbacks. 

Tale of the Tape

Uncredited/Associated Press

Who: Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

When: 6:40 p.m. ET on CBS

Where: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts 

This will be Luck's toughest playoff test to date. 

The Colts have had a bit of a charmed life in the 2014-2015 NFL playoffs. Yes, these are the best-of-the-best teams in the league, but the AFC field was markedly lighter than the NFC's, and Luck has gotten juicy matchups against the playoff-inept Cincinnati Bengals and the husk of Peyton Manning's former self. 

Sure, the Colts can't control who's on their schedule, and yes, it's impressive to get to the AFC Championship Game no matter the quality of the field. But it's informative to understand that the Patriots are a different kind of team. 

The Patriots, for their part, have only had to win one game—against a Baltimore Ravens team that has been absolutely incredible in the playoffs (even against the Patriots) in recent years but was mediocre (at best) for much of the season. 

So, the Patriots better be on their game against the tougher Colts matchup as well. 

Second-Screen Swag

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Colts WR T.Y. Hilton

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Biggest Questions

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Colts CB Vontae Davis

What Kind of Game Plan Does Bill Belichick Bring to the AFC Championship?

I've said it before, but it's worth repeating: Belichick doesn't necessarily care how his team is put together. He assembles a game plan and a scheme based on matchups that can vary wildly from game to game. Oftentimes, it's not even the most obvious exploitation of a team, but it's one that meshes perfectly with how Belichick thinks the Patriots can take advantage. 

The Colts, much like you and me, will be heading into the the weekend curious about which sort of Patriots team they'll have to stop. 

Can Andrew Luck Continue His String of Fantastic Playoff Performances?

Recently, I noted how Luck's playoff performances still left something to be desired. When Luck was up, he was way up, and the Colts dominated their opponents. When he was down, though...oh boy, look out. He was atrocious. 

That was before the Broncos game, however, and Luck has now put together a couple of fantastic games. The Patriots represent a new kind of challenge, but Luck is one of the best in the game. If he plays against New England like he did against the Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals, this could be more than an upset—it could be a rout. 

Will the Colts Defense Play Well Against a Patriots Team That Can Keep Pace?

One of the trends I've noted about the Colts in recent weeks is that they are a front-running team. They love to be up a score or two, which helps their balance on offense and allows them to mix up some things with their pass rush on defense. 

It is extremely hard to front run against New England. 

The Patriots can run the ball well, and the Colts have issues stopping that. If Belichick's team stays within seven to 10 points or leads for much of the game, that changes what the Colts can do well and neuters their pass-rushing ability. 

Important Matchups

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Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski

When the New England Patriots Have the Ball

With Tom Brady dropping back to throw, I'm looking at two Colts defenders who can absolutely tear apart this game. 

First, defensive end Cory Redding has played phenomenally over the past couple of weeks, and he's in a unique position to single-handedly dominate. His ability as a penetrating pass-rusher can hamper not only Brady's effectiveness but also disrupt the timing of the passing attack. He's up-and-down against the run, though, so if he's down, the Patriots could take advantage. 

On the back end, cornerback Vontae Davis is the Colts' best defender and one of the best cornerbacks in the league. He's got to shut down half of the field so the rest of the defense can focus on tight end Rob Gronkowski. He likely won't face Gronk much himself, but how Davis plays will likely impact how effective his teammates can be in stopping the tight end.

When the Indianapolis Colts Have the Ball

One of the underrated stories for the Colts offense this postseason is how well the offensive line has played since right tackle Gosder Cherilus went on injured reserve in late December. Relatively anonymous players like Jack Mewhort are becoming household names and proving they can be in the Colts' long-term plans (and potentially save the team some money) along the offensive front.

The Patriots don't have an elite pass rush, but they do have enough players to give a young quarterback like Andrew Luck (even as savvy as he is) fits with different looks, fronts and schemes throughout the contest. Luck will need to have the game of his life if the Colts want to win. 

More on Matchups This Weekend

• Bleacher Report's Eric Mack on matchups to watch
• Matt Bowen's film study for Conference Championship Weekend

Injury Report

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

Patriots CB Brandon Browner

Indianapolis Colts

Josh McNary (LB)—Out, League Discipline 

New England Patriots

Brandon Browner (CB)—Questionable, Knee

Brandon LaFell (WR)—Questionable, Shoulder/Toe

Bleacher Report Consensus Predictions and Links

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Patriots head coach Bill Belichick

• Expert Conference Championship picks
• Expert Conference Championship projections
• Dan Levy ranks the possible Super Bowl matchups
• Cian Fahey on Pats' offensive creativity
• Ty Schalter on Jamie Collins' breakout and importance versus Colts
• Erik Frenz on Devin McCourty developing into one of the game's better safeties
• Rivers McCown on how/why Colts need to improve on run D versus Patriots
• Nick Kostos on Colts' chance
• Team Stream Now on X-factor of the game
• Team Stream Now Chalk Talk

 

Michael Schottey is an NFL National Lead Writer for Bleacher Report and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America. Find more of his stuff on his archive page and follow him on Twitter.