Colts vs. Patriots: Top Fantasy Bets, Predictions for 2015 AFC Championship

For a long time, an AFC Championship Game matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots was standard fare. Both teams have undergone some notable changes since their last meeting in this spot eight years ago, but the old playoff rivalry gets renewed one more time on Sunday. 

These two teams did meet in last year's divisional round, with the Patriots running for 234 yards and picking off four Andrew Luck passes en route to a 43-22 victory. They also played in Week 11 this year with a similar result. New England ran for 246 yards in a 42-20 win. 

What's happened in the past is a learning opportunity for both teams. The Colts are trying to join the ranks of the elite, which will happen with a win on Sunday. The Patriots are looking to make history with an eighth Super Bowl appearance, including sixth in the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era. 

In a game with so many storylines and so much talent, it's not going to be hard to find talking points. Here are the best fantasy bets and predictions for the AFC Championship Game. 

Position	Player	Price
QB	Andrew Luck	$9,200
RB	LeGarrette Blount	$5,400
RB	Shane Vereen	$5,400
WR	T.Y. Hilton	$8,200
WR	Brandon LaFell	$7,000
WR	Reggie Wayne	$5,000
TE	Coby Fleener	$5,500
K	Adam Vinatieri	$4,600
Defense	Patriots	$4,900

Prices can be found on FanDuel.com.

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

The best part about this particular roster is that it's $4,800 under the $60,000 salary cap, so you can upgrade a spot if you want. For instance, if you want Rob Gronkowski instead of Coby Fleener, you can do it and still have $2,100 left to play with. 

It might seem crazy to go with Fleener over Gronk, but there's significantly more value in the Colts tight end in this spot. He's also fared well in matchups against the Patriots, racking up a season-high 144 yards on seven catches in the Week 11 loss. 

The gap in big plays of at least 20 yards between the two tight ends isn't as drastic as you might think, as noted by Nick Jacobs of Time Warner Cable Sports in Kansas City:

If recent history is any indication, the Patriots will look to run the ball down Indianapolis' throat. That immediately lowers Gronkowski's value. Fleener should have at least 80 yards with one touchdown in this game. 

Gronk was held in check for most of that Week 11 meeting with 45 yards on three catches before that memorable 26-yard touchdown catch midway through the fourth quarter boosted his stats. 

Since the Colts don't run the ball often, Luck instantly has more value than Brady. Indianapolis' quarterback has been the team's offense, as this number from ESPN Stats & Info shows:

Turnovers have been a problem for Luck this season, including two interceptions last week against Denver, but it would be a shock to see him throw for less than 300 yards and two touchdowns. That's basically been his standard all year, so why should things be different now?

There isn't a better value on the board than LeGarrette Blount. Even though the ghost of Jonas Gray may be tempting because his game against the Colts made him a star, Blount seems to fit Belichick's style better. 

Blount can also boast about his own recent success against the Colts, running for 166 yards and four touchdowns in last year's playoff matchup. However, per Mike Reiss of ESPN Boston, keeping Shane Vereen around might not be a bad idea based on last week's snaps:

Belichick doesn't have a set plan at running back each week. He adjusts based on what teams tend to do defensively. Vereen is better in all phases of the passing game, receiving and protection, so he got the majority of snaps against a blitz-happy Baltimore team. 

The Colts are small up front, so Blount's power style fits better in this particular matchup. He won't go off like he did last year, though anything less than 90 yards and one score would suggest Belichick has gone a different direction or Indianapolis has figured out how to stop this rushing attack. 

Final Prediction

Since Luck took over as starting quarterback of the Colts in 2012, these two teams have played three times. The Patriots have won all three matchups by a combined score of 144-66, and they haven't scored fewer than 42 points in any game. 

It's also not clear how much of Indianapolis' success last weekend was the result of improved play on its part or Peyton Manning showing the arm of a 50-year-old in Denver's frigid temperatures. The Colts deserve credit for doing what they needed to in order to win, but Brady isn't showing signs of slowing down. 

Until the Colts prove they are even capable of hanging with the Patriots, there's no reason to think things will turn around this weekend in Foxborough. 

Patriots 34, Colts 24