NFL MVP 2015: Latest Odds, Predictions Heading Toward Conference Championships

It's an NFL MVP race unlike any we've seen in the last near decade as the 2014 season winds to a close.

For the first time in what feels like ages, a defensive player has emerged as one of the top favorites to be crowned for the regular-season award. A couple of star-studded quarterbacks that led their teams to impeccable seasons are in the mix, but the sheer dominance of J.J. Watt this season may be enough to take it home.

A handful of the league's top performers throughout the season saw their odds listed for the MVP at the end of the regular season, but only three or four of the top candidates have a realistic shot.

Let's take a look at who those are, as we break down odds for the top candidates and predict the top three finishers. 

Player	Odds
Aaron Rodgers	1-33
J.J. Watt	7-1
Tom Brady	12-1
Russell Wilson	20-1
DeMarco Murray	25-1
Marshawn Lynch	25-1
Tony Romo	40-1
Peyton Manning	90-1
Ben Roethlisberger	275-1

Note: Odds courtesy of OddsChecker.com, last updated January 14

NFL MVP Predictions

3. DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

It's hard to picture where the Dallas Cowboys' season would've ended if running back DeMarco Murray wasn't in the fold. Saying they wouldn't have made the postseason without him might not be that far-fetched.

Dallas promised to have an improved run game in 2014, but not even the Cowboys could have expected what unfolded. Murray rushed for 1,845 yards and 13 touchdowns on a whopping 392 carries for the season, running wild behind an impenetrable offensive line.

For all of the attention given to quarterback Tony Romo this season, as well as a head-turning Cowboys defense, the entire project would have fallen apart without Murray's chunk yardage gluing drives together.

ESPN's Stephen A. Smith touted him as his regular-season MVP after Week 17 concluded, per ESPN First Take:

Much of the Cowboys' rushing success can be attributed to the offensive line's dominance, but somebody has to run through those holes—and nobody would have done it better than Murray.

2. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

Mike Roemer/Associated Press

In a sizable upset from previous years of MVP voting, only one quarterback cracks the top three finishers for the league's most valuable player, but he's undoubtedly deserving.

If it weren't for a magnificent season-long performance from Watt, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers would have run away with the award weeks ago. He's been dealing all season, throwing for 4,381 yards and 38 touchdowns with just five interceptions—a career low ever since he became a starter. 

A recent calf injury has made Rodgers' performances even more legendary. Despite carrying a limp for most of the Packers' divisional-round win over the Cowboys, he still threw for 316 yards and three touchdowns to win the game, as ESPN's Randy Scott noticed:

Of course, all of the votes were cast prior to the postseason, and Rodgers' play in January will have no bearing upon the results released on Jan. 31. That's a good thing for Watt, considering Rodgers is leading his team into the NFC Championship Game against the Seattle Seahawks this weekend.

Another big-time postseason performance might not help Rodgers lock up another MVP award, but he's in a pretty favorable position nonetheless.

1. J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

Amid one of the most insane seasons from a defensive player in league history, Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt took a stranglehold over every offense he went up against. He became the only NFL player in history with multiple 20-sack seasons, also forcing four fumbles, breaking up 10 passes and scoring two touchdowns on the defensive side.

John Wessling proposes they should change the award's name if Watt isn't selected:

Oh, and did I mention he caught three passes on offense, and all were for touchdowns?

The critics will argue that Watt's team didn't even make the postseason, but that only holds so much weight. The Texans did impress very much this season by going from 2-14 to 9-7, and it's safe to say Houston would be below the .500 mark without Watt making his impact all season.

Rodgers posted the best season of any quarterback, but it pales in comparison to the MVP-caliber seasons of quarterbacks in the recent past. Peyton Manning threw 55 touchdown passes—an NFL record—to win the award last season, and Rodgers threw 45 touchdowns in 2011 to win his first MVP.

His 38 this season didn't come in nearly as convincing of a fashion, while Watt dominated almost every play he lined up for. The NFL has never been a more quarterback-driven league than today, but that only makes pass-rushers like Watt all the more important. He's the best overall player in the league at that position.

If the voters take a long, hard look at the situation, they won't be able to deny Watt his place as league MVP.