College Football Championship 2015: Final Odds Advice for Oregon vs. Ohio State
Las Vegas oddsmakers continue to trumpet the Oregon Ducks over the Ohio State Buckeyes in the debut College Football Playoff National Championship.
They also said Alabama would take down Ohio State. Oh, and that Florida State would only lose to Oregon by about nine points.
See, the dying embers of the collegiate season are ripe for exploitation by savvy bettors. The excruciating wait for the game itself produces plenty of hesitation and second-guessing, but ample time to iron out a decision.
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For those procrastinators, now is the time to catch up on the pertinent details and go head-to-head with the house one more time.
College Football Playoff National Championship Odds and Schedule
| January 12, 2015 | Oregon vs. Ohio State | 8:30 p.m. | ESPN | Oregon -7 (74) |
Breaking Down the Odds
The knee-jerk reaction to roll with Oregon by a touchdown is understandable.
After all, Marcus Mariota owns 40 touchdowns to three interceptions through the air, another 15 on the ground and his offense ranks second in the nation at 47.2 points per game.
Feel free to pour it on—the Ducks sure do. The unit put up 46 on Michigan State's defense, 42 on UCLA, 45 on Stanford, 51 on Utah, 47 on Oregon State, 51 on Arizona in a splotch of revenge and topped it all off with a 59-20 public dissection of Florida State.
Just understand that Ohio State touts a defensive acumen that can hurt the Ducks in a major way. Joey Bosa (14 sacks), Adolphus Washington and others form one of the nation's most feared defensive lines, something Oregon center Hroniss Grasu is quick to point out, according to Paul Myerberg of USA Today:
"They're the most talented defensive line we've faced all season long. The most talented defense. They've got some young guys in there who can really play. They're just very active. They won't quit on a play. Florida State, they'd stop after one move. These guys, they won't quit on a play.
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Grasu's presence alone should be a key part to this game, though, as his return to the lineup means Mariota will play behind the healthiest offensive line the QB has seen all season.
Even so, as much as Mariota likes to get out of the pocket and extend plays or take off, the Ohio State line is not one to toy with in this regard. He will also need to lean on lead back Royce Freeman (1,343 yards, 18 scores) more than usual, both because the interior of the line is back to full strength and because of the absence of top targets.
Not only will the Oregon offense be without tight end Pharaoh Brown and wideout Devon Allen, but freshman Darren Carrington will also miss the game due to suspension, per Fox Sports' Bruce Feldman. Carrington, the star who stepped up against the Seminoles with seven catches for 165 yards and a pair of scores.
Of course, Ohio State has problems of its own and will not just pull away and beat the odds.
Urban Meyer's team will surely lean on sophomore back Ezekiel Elliott once again. Thanks to 450 rushing yards and four touchdowns over the course of his past two outings, Elliott figures to be the recipe by which the Buckeyes keep Mariota off the field, weapons or not.
The reasoning to ride Elliott is more than strategy for a particular opponent, though, as Meyer would ideally like to keep the ball out of Cardale Jones' hands as much as possible.
While impressive that the former third-string quarterback has led the team to a pair of critical wins, his 18-of-35 mark for 243 yards with an interception and touchdown against Alabama shows the sophomore can and will make mistakes.
For the sake of protecting quarterbacks for two very different reasons, an over/under of more than 70 reeks of too much. Both offenses average more than 45 points per game, but Mariota's lack of weapons in the face of an elite defensive front and Ohio State's strategic approach suggest the under is the safest route to take.
Look for Ohio State to stick close, too. While the Buckeyes will not wind up with a claim to fame such as beating the top three Heisman vote-getters, Jones has a booming arm that can hit deep threats, and Elliott will produce enough to at least keep pace.
Bets against Mariota at this point are downright unwise, so outright, the call is easy. Against the spread, try not to doubt Ohio State once again. Look for the Buckeyes to keep up and cover with a late score.
Prediction: Oregon 36, Ohio State 30
Betting information courtesy of Odds Shark. Statistics and info courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise specified.
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