Daily Fantasy Basketball 2015: Best NBA FanDuel, DraftKings Lineup for Jan. 8
With just three games on Thursday's NBA docket, the pickings for daily fantasy players may look slim. However, those games happen to feature two of the league's five worst defenses and two of the top 10 offenses, as measured by points per 100 possessions, via Basketball-Reference.com. Thus, with potential mismatches all over the place, savvy owners can still turn a profit despite the thin player pool.
Of course, it'll be hard to avoid a stars-and-scrubs approach, though there are some sneaky value plays that could put your lineup over the top. For what it's worth, junk-time basketball looms as a real possibility in all three contests, adding an extra X-factor to consider.
Using the prices from FanDuel and DraftKings, let's dissect a pair of optimal lineups for Thursday's fantasy action.
FanDuel
| PG | Kemba Walker, CHA | @ Raptors | $9,000 |
| PG | Damian Lillard, POR | vs. Heat | $9,500 |
| SG | Lou Williams, TOR | vs. Hornets | $5,200 |
| SG | Jason Terry, HOU | @ Knicks | $3,500 |
| SF | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, CHA | @ Raptors | $5,400 |
| SF | Terrence Ross, TOR | vs. Hornets | $4,500 |
| PF | LaMarcus Aldridge, POR | vs. Heat | $10,100 |
| PF | Josh Smith, HOU | @ Knicks | $6,700 |
| C | Jonas Valanciunas, TOR | vs. Hornets | $6,100 |
You'll notice that this is a guard-centric lineup, as injuries along the wing to the likes of Carmelo Anthony, Wesley Matthews and DeMar Derozan have necessitated this type of lineup construction. However, in Kemba Walker and Damian Lillard, you'll have a nice backcourt foundation to go along with LaMarcus Aldridge as the centerpiece.
Walker will get to face a Toronto Raptors squad that has had some issues defending point guards, as Kyle Lowry's forte is not on the defensive end. Moreover, with Al Jefferson having missed four consecutive games with a groin injury, Walker has become the focal point of the Hornets offense. Consequently, he's reached a career milestone in the past two contests:
Thirty-point outings are the norm for Lillard, whose usage rate, field-goal attempts and three-point attempts are up for a third straight season. The Miami Heat rank 26th in defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions), and the Blazers All-Star should have no issues against the Mario Chalmers-Norris Cole tandem in the backcourt.
After the point guards, a trio of Toronto Raptors highlight the best upside plays in this lineup. With the aforementioned injuries along the wing, Lou Williams represents arguably the best sleeper play of the Thursday schedule. Although he is always streaky in terms of shooting percentages, Williams is coming off a career-high 31-point outing. Playing 30 minutes a game with DeRozan out, the veteran is a safe source of points at a scarce position.
Jonas Valanciunas is also a nice center option behind the elite choices of Dwight Howard and Chris Bosh. Valanciunas bounced back from a stunning rebound-less game to record a double-double against the Phoenix Suns, notching 21 points to go along with 10 boards. Going against Bismack Biyombo, who has regressed defensively this season, Valanciunas should thrive again.
The most controversial choice on this list might be Josh Smith, who has become the subject of ridicule throughout the season. Smith struggled mightily in his first five games as a Houston Rocket, but in the past three games, he has gone 23-39 (60.0 percent) from the field. The key has been a move to the bench, which has done wonders to both individual and team efficiency:
Smith should again exploit the New York Knicks' callow lineup. The Knicks are conceding a whopping 111.4 points per 100 possessions, third-worst in the league, which should make virtually every rotational Rocket a green light fantasy starter on Thursday.
DraftKings
| PG | Damian Lillard, POR | vs. Heat | $9,800 |
| SG | Lou Williams, TOR | vs. Hornets | $4,600 |
| SF | Nicolas Batum, POR | vs. Heat | $5,900 |
| PF | Amir Johnson, TOR | vs. Hornets | $4,600 |
| C | Dwight Howard, HOU | @ Knicks | $8,500 |
| G | Patrick Beverley, HOU | @ Knicks | $5,100 |
| F | Luol Deng, MIA | @ Blazers | $5,900 |
| UTIL | Trevor Ariza, HOU | @ Knicks | $5,600 |
Even with just three games, Williams and Lillard are the only overlaps between the FanDuel and DraftKings lineups. In fact, the latter site's pricing actually provides the most value along the wings, thus giving this lineup a totally different complexion to the one we just went over.
The anchor of this lineup is Dwight Howard, who will feast on a Knicks defense whose 71.5 percent defensive rebounding rate ranks dead last in the league. With nine double-doubles in 13 games since returning from a knee injury, Howard is back in peak form, and it would be the night's biggest upset if New York contained him.
In the Miami-Portland matchup, this lineup features both sides of a one-on-one matchup pitting Luol Deng against Nicolas Batum. Deng probably doesn't need much justification, as his first season in South Beach has been a seamless transition. Deng is on pace to post his highest field-goal percentage since 2006-07, and his per-minute scoring rates remain in line with his career averages. With a steady supply of rebounds, steals and free-throw percentage, Deng is a bankable fantasy option to help anchor this lineup.
Batum, on the other hand, is on pace to set significant career lows in both field-goal and three-point shooting percentages, as his game has floundered this season. However, since missing the Dec. 23 game against the Oklahoma City Thunder with a wrist injury, Batum has seen an uptick over his past four games:
| vs. Lakers (Jan. 5) | 8 | 33.3 | 40.0 |
| vs. Hawks (Jan. 3) | 16 | 53.8 | 28.6 |
| vs. Raptors (Dec. 30) | 13 | 36.4 | 40.0 |
| vs. Knicks (Dec. 28) | 17 | 75.0 | 71.4 |
| vs. 76ers (Dec. 26) | 14 | 62.5 | 25.0 |
The window to buy low on Batum in season-long fantasy leagues is probably closing soon, and now's a chance for daily players to take advantage while his stock price remains slightly deflated. Miami is allowing a 52.5 percent eFG% to opposing offenses, the second-worst mark in the league, so look for Batum to continue his rebound as he recovers from his injuries.
Finally, Patrick Beverley is a nice sleeper play to round out your lineup. Known for his defensive reputation, Beverley's offensive game has blossomed in 2014-15, as he's shooting 40.2 percent from three-point range and on pace to shatter his career high in threes made. The Knicks have allowed opponents to shoot 39.5 percent from beyond the arc, the highest mark in the league, so expect Beverley to provide a cheap source of threes on Thursday.
*All stats via Basketball-Reference.com.
