5 Dark-Horse Playoff Contenders for 2015 College Football Season
What? You thought you'd get through the first College Football Playoff National Championship before being subjected to way-too-early dark-horse contenders for 2015?
Where's the fun in that?
If the 2014 season has taught us anything, it's that no one should be removed from the playoff table in September and October. Otherwise, we wouldn't have Ohio State playing for the national championship. With that in mind, there are a handful of teams—at least—with a case to be a possible playoff contender next year.
Which teams have an outside shot at making next year's four-team field? Let's take our best guesses in the following slides.
Florida State
1 of 5
Yes, last season's national champion and this year's playoff No. 3 seed will be a dark horse in 2015. [#FSUTwitter explodes at the notion of "dark horse."]
But consider for a moment exactly what Florida State is losing. It starts, obviously, with quarterback Jameis Winston, who announced on Wednesday, via ESPN.com, that he would be declaring for the NFL draft. Winston is among the best players in this year's draft and a former Heisman winner who led the Seminoles to 27 straight victories. Corey Clark of the Tallahassee Democrat, in so many words, called Winston as unique a player as he's ever covered.
Where FSU goes from here on the quarterback front remains a compelling offseason storyline. While there has been nothing official, Ohio State quarterback Braxton Miller has been at the center of a report connecting him to Florida State, according to the Palm Beach Post's Tom D'Angelo.
The Seminoles also lose their two leading receivers—wideout Rashad Greene and tight end Nick O'Leary—running back Karlos Williams and a majority of the offensive line. Another handful of talented defensive players, including cornerback P.J. Williams and defensive end Mario Edwards Jr., are either leaving early or expected to do so.
Florida State will look like a brand new team. The easy conclusion to draw is that the Noles are bound to take a step back. However, as Dan Wolken of USA Today points out, head coach Jimbo Fisher has recruited too well and played too many important key freshmen for this team to fall right off the map:
"Fisher credits the culture that was built by his early recruiting classes at Florida State — guys such as Telvin Smith, Lamarcus Joyner and Bjoern Werner — for creating an expectation and setting the standards that the next wave of players could understand and strive for.
Plus, Fisher said the Seminoles have been very strategic this year in using freshmen such as receiver Travis Rudolph, defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi, defensive end Lorenzo Featherston, linebacker Jacob Pugh and safety Trey Marshall to groom them as FSU's next stars.
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Is Florida State bound for a drop-off in 2015? Perhaps, but that's what makes the Seminoles playoff dark horses. The ACC as a whole lacks championship contenders; maybe that's just what Florida State needs to get back on top.
Oklahoma State
2 of 5
It wouldn't shock anyone if Baylor or TCU—or both—found itself in the playoff next year. In fact, the Big 12 schedule sets up beautifully for the Bears and Frogs to play each other toward the end of the season (Friday, Nov. 27).
However, last Nov. 8 was supposed to be a Big 12 showdown for the ages between Baylor and Oklahoma for the conference title, and, well, the Bears won 48-14. The point is, sometimes these can't-miss calendar games don't pan out like we expect.
Which is why Oklahoma State could sneak up and be the surprise team in the Big 12. The Cowboys, fresh off a Catcus Bowl win over Washington, have the attention of Fox Sports Southwest's David Ubben:
"Late in the year against Baylor and in wins over Oklahoma and Washington, you saw the Cowboys turn a corner. Mason Rudolph, promising as he may be, was not the only reason. An extremely green offensive line began to gel and the youth in the secondary started to figure it out. OSU loses just one player from 11 in its secondary two-deep. That pays off in the Big 12 and defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah is a legit Big 12 DPOY candidate next season.
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Oklahoma State was terribly young and inexperienced last year—just nine returning starters, according to Phil Steele—and the results showed. However, it should have next year what it hasn't had since 2011: a stable quarterback situation.
Freshman Mason Rudolph was set to redshirt but was thrust into action against Baylor with two games remaining in the regular season. The move costs Rudolph a year of eligibility, but Oklahoma State may be better off in the short term for it.
If there's a wild card in all of this, it's offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich. Head coach Mike Gundy has been superb—in an underrated way, too—in picking assistant coaches. The outcome of Yurcich's hire still feels like it's to be determined, however. Gundy is the mastermind who makes the Pokes machine run, but Year 3 has an early make-or-break feel to it.
Arizona
3 of 5
The Pac-12 is stating its case not just as the second-best conference that so happens to be closing the gap on the SEC. It's making the case to be the best conference in college football.
And Arizona is looking to state its case that it's not just a once-in-a-while overachiever. Certainly head coach Rich Rodriguez is doing great things in Tucson.
2014 was a year in which the Wildcats, with a road victory over Oregon and a Fiesta Bowl appearance, reached heights they previously only dreamed of. Can 2015 be better? There are reasons to be both excited and skeptical.
Roughly half of the starting 22 were freshmen and sophomores, per ourlads.com. Among those were key players: quarterback Anu Solomon, running back Nick Wilson, receiver Cayleb Jones and linebacker Scooby Wright III, who won about every defensive award imaginable.
However, as Anthony Gimino of Fox Sports Arizona points out, the Wildcats have to replace three offensive linemen and already ranked among the worst teams in the Pac-12 in sacks allowed. Part of that is on Solomon, who, despite a great first season, has a lot of room to grow as well in decision-making.
"That's going to be my challenge to the entire team when we get back [on Jan. 14]. We can get a whole lot better. I can get better. It starts with me," Rodriguez told Gimino.
You can bet folks will be trumpeting USC leading into next season after a Holiday Bowl win over Nebraska, but bowl momentum is oftentimes a sketchy evaluator of the following season. And, if we're being honest, the Trojans are too easy of a pick.
What will be interesting to follow is whether the strength of the Pac-12 shifts to the South Division. Since becoming a 12-team conference in 2011, the power has been in the North with Oregon and Stanford.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Arkansas
4 of 5
OK, I'm buying into Arkansas. This is probably unwise, as the SEC West has an established order. The division has been won by one of three teams (Alabama, Auburn and LSU) for the past eight years, but we're playing with house money here. Besides, the last team to break that streak was—you guessed it—Arkansas in 2006.
So, you know, full circle and all that jazz. That, and the Razorbacks have nearly completed their transformation into a brute military ground weapon.
The Hogs return largely intact in the places they need to return largely intact. The word "large" has a couple of meanings, too. Arkansas is bulky up front and returns most of the offensive line. As Nate Allen of NWAOnline.com notes, the Razorbacks "will begin the 2015 offseason and ensuing spring practices with an offensive line deeper than the line that concluded 2014."
The two-headed rushing monster of Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins is back, too. There are more losses on the defensive side, namely defensive end Trey Flowers. However, as long as the Hogs continue to dominate in time of possession, it should take pressure off that unit.
It was tempting to pick a sexier, up-and-coming SEC team like Texas A&M. Kyle Allen, the Aggies freshman quarterback, can straight ball. He's going to be special. And Lord knows the Tennessee bandwagon is overflowing. But watching Arkansas smash its way through defenses is intoxicating.
There's a reason why Alabama or Auburn will continue to be the favorites in the SEC West and possibly in the national championship picture. It just feels like Arkansas has finally turned a corner.
Boise State
5 of 5
Chances are, a "New Year's Six" bowl appearance is going to be the ceiling for teams in Group of Five conferences. The championship field may have doubled to four teams, but access for programs outside power conferences is limited at best.
But, hey, a Bronco can dream, right?
To have a shot at the playoff, 1) Boise State would have to go undefeated, and 2) the top of college football would have to be even worse than it was in 2014. There's no wiggle room there.
There's an important thing to remember for Boise State as it looks to reclaim its title as college football's giant killer: The 2015 schedule sets up well on paper. In Boise State's case, the harder the schedule, the better. No Group of Five team can navigate through this playoff era with the type of schedule Marshall had in 2014.
The Broncos have Washington, BYU and Virginia scheduled for nonconference play plus a throwaway game vs. Idaho State. At worst, that's respectable. At best, that could be a huge boost depending on what those teams do throughout the rest of the season.
Boise also has to find replacements for senior quarterback Grant Hedrick and running back Jay Ajayi. If head coach Bryan Harsin can successfully retool the offense, the Broncos have a shot to put Cinderella back in the playoff discussion.
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com. All depth chart numbers courtesy of ourlads.com. All schedule information courtesy of FBSchedules.com.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
