
Power Ranking Every NFL Head Coach Vacancy
If you could be the head coach of any NFL team that currently has a vacancy, which one would you choose?
One or more coaching candidates might get to make that choice—or at least a choice between a couple of teams with openings. Some of the NFL’s hottest prospective coaching candidates, such as Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn and Denver Broncos offensive coordinator Adam Gase, have already lined up interviews with several teams looking for new leaders.
The Atlanta Falcons, the Chicago Bears and the New York Jets are all interviewing candidates after firing their 2014 head coaches one week ago on "Black Monday."
The San Francisco 49ers have had an opening since the previous day, as Jim Harbaugh mutually parted ways with the team following its Week 17 game. The Buffalo Bills have had an opening since Wednesday, when Doug Marrone decided to opt out of his contract. The Oakland Raiders have technically had an opening since September, as they fired Dennis Allen after an 0-4 start.
All six of those teams have significant issues to address this offseason. If they didn’t, they wouldn’t be looking for new head coaches.
Nonetheless, each open job has pros and cons. Differences in personnel, available future assets and organizational structures all play a part in determining which job openings are the most attractive.
Any candidate lucky enough to be considered for multiple head coaching jobs will have to consider his own personal preferences in deciding which team presents the best opportunity. Overall, however, some of the following franchises are in much better positions than others to succeed with new coaches.
6. Chicago Bears
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When a team fires both its coach and its general manager in the same offseason, you know the franchise needs a complete overhaul. That’s the case for the Chicago Bears, who let go of both Marc Trestman and Phil Emery on Black Monday.
The first decision Chicago’s new coach and general manager have to make is a tough one: Should they try to revitalize Jay Cutler's career or trade the quarterback to any team that will take on his $16.5 million cap hit for next season?
Coming off a season in which he played so poorly he was benched for Jimmy Clausen, Cutler is far from an ideal starting option, but he also has minimal trade value.
The rest of the roster isn’t much more encouraging.
Wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, right guard Kyle Long and cornerback Kyle Fuller are young, talented players the Bears can build around. The depth chart is full of holes, however, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
With uncertainty at the quarterback position and many other spots in need of upgrades, the Bears are likely at least two to three years away from being serious contenders again. The coach who takes this job will have tough work in front of him.
5. New York Jets
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Like the Bears, the New York Jets decided to clean house this offseason, as they fired coach Rex Ryan and general manager John Idzik. New York's new leaders will also take control of a roster that has weaknesses at many positions, including quarterback.
Although the Jets won only four games in 2014, some have excused Ryan from blame from the team’s struggles. Ryan is still considered a viable NFL head coach, and he has scheduled interviews with the Atlanta Falcons and the San Francisco 49ers, according to Brian Costello of the New York Post.
In terms of player personnel, Ryan had little talent to work with during his final season in the Big Apple.
Geno Smith failed to establish himself as a solid starting quarterback in his second NFL season and was benched for part of the season in favor of Michael Vick. Determining a plan to go forward at the quarterback position will be the top priority for the Jets' new coach and general manager.
The Jets also do not have a single skill-position player who achieved 1,000 yards from scrimmage in 2014. Their two best offensive linemen, left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson and center Nick Mangold, are in their 30s. They have two star interior defensive linemen under contract in Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson, but their edge rush, linebacker corps and secondary all need upgrades.
New York is projected to have the league’s fourth-most salary-cap space this offseason, according to OverTheCap.com, so the Jets have the ability to make some key signings from the free-agent market. Still, the team’s lack of young talent leaves it in a bad spot.
4. Oakland Raiders
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Possessing arguably the NFL’s most talent-starved roster, the Oakland Raiders easily could be at the bottom of these rankings. There are holes throughout the roster, and the team won just three games in 2014 as a result.
Additionally, the Oakland job has traditionally been a dangerous one for head coaches, as owner Mark Davis has taken after his late father, Al Davis, in quickly pulling the trigger on coaching changes. No head coach has been with the team for three full seasons or more since Jon Gruden was coach from 1998-2001.
That said, there is some promising young talent on the roster. Early returns from the 2014 draft have been excellent. First-round pick Khalil Mack has already emerged as a defensive superstar, while second-round pick Derek Carr has demonstrated franchise-quarterback potential.
The Raiders have a severe lack of productive veterans, but they might be OK if their new coach is a convincing recruiter. Oakland is projected to have the second-most salary-cap space in the NFL this offseason—more than $59 million—according to OverTheCap.com.
Oakland is likely at least a couple of years away from being a serious contender; that could keep some coaches away, as ownership has a history of being impatient. Coaches keen for opportunities to develop young players, however, should be enticed by this vacancy.
3. Buffalo Bills
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Much has been made of the Buffalo Bills having no quarterback and no first-round pick. Often overlooked, however, is the fact that the Bills, despite subpar play from passers Kyle Orton and EJ Manuel, were good enough to come within one game of making the playoffs this season.
The team's quarterback situation is a dire one. Manuel, a 2013 first-round pick, was benched just four games into his second NFL season in favor of Orton, a journeyman veteran who retired last week. Having traded their first-round pick in this year’s draft to move up for Sammy Watkins last year, the Bills have no clear path to make a significant upgrade at the quarterback position this offseason.
But if the Bills can make even a slight upgrade under center, it might be enough for them to make the playoffs in 2015.
Buffalo's offense needs more than just a quarterback, as its offensive line is also shaky across the board, but its defense is loaded with talent. The Bills finished in the NFL’s top five in yards and points allowed this season, even with one of their most talented young players, linebacker Kiko Alonso, sidelined for the entire year.
The team’s organizational structure is currently in flux, as it is in its first offseason under new owners Terry and Kim Pegula. It's uncertain if general manager Doug Whaley and President Russ Brandon will be in the team’s long-term plans, as the Bills made an overture last week to hire Bill Polian to lead their front office, according to ESPN's Chris Mortensen.
Buffalo’s new coach will have to deal with a changing culture as he starts his job with the team this offseason, but being hand-picked by the Pegulas should give him some job security for his first couple of seasons. Meanwhile, the Bills look far more likely to contend in 2015 than the Bears, the Jets or the Raiders.
2. San Francisco 49ers
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The San Francisco 49ers have the most talented roster of any team with a head coaching vacancy this January. Having made three consecutive NFC Championship Games prior to this past season, the 49ers are not far removed from being one of the best teams in the NFL.
They have lost or will lose some significant players from those teams, but they still possess a strong core of veteran stars and emerging young playmakers.
Colin Kaepernick’s quarterback play regressed in 2014, but he’s just 27 years old and has the best physical tools of any signal-caller in the NFL. Good enough previously to lead the 49ers to a Super Bowl berth, Kaepernick should bounce back, especially if San Francisco upgrades the weapons around him.
Defensively, the 49ers remain loaded with young talent, including safety Eric Reid and linebackers Aldon Smith, Chris Borland and Aaron Lynch.
San Francisco is projected to be over the salary cap, so the 49ers might have to make some tough veteran cuts. They won’t be able to spend big in free agency, but they should be able to address their biggest needs—defensive end, wide receiver and potentially cornerback—through the draft.
The bigger concern for an incoming coach, and why this vacancy is not ranked No. 1, is the fact that Jim Harbaugh was compelled to leave the team after four years in which he went 44-19 and led the team to three conference title berths.
Clearly, the bar is set high in San Francisco, and the Harbaugh saga has brought to light that owner Jed York and general manager Trent Baalke could be difficult to work with. The coach who takes this job will be in position to contend for a championship immediately, but he must also understand that he will be expected to deliver immediate results.
1. Atlanta Falcons
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Even though the Atlanta Falcons are coming off back-to-back losing seasons, their head coaching vacancy looks like the best overall opportunity on the NFL’s job market this offseason.
Atlanta has a stable foundation upon which a coach can come in and immediately focus on building and developing his team for the 2015 season. The Falcons have a solid veteran quarterback in Matt Ryan, an experienced returning general manager in Thomas Dimitroff and a widely respected owner in Arthur Blank.
The biggest challenge Atlanta’s new coach faces will be fixing the team’s defense. The Falcons allowed more yards than any other team in the NFL and were 27th in points allowed in 2014.
The Falcons need to upgrade their roster in a number of areas—most notably their pass rush—but they also have some exciting young pieces, including cornerback Desmond Trufant and wide receiver Julio Jones, who is four seasons into his career but will be only 26 years old next season.
Projected to have more than $28 million in salary-cap space, the Falcons can make some moves in free agency, and they also have a full allotment of picks to work with in this year’s draft.
In a division that had no teams with winning records this season, the Falcons could quickly return to the top of the NFC South and into the playoffs if they make the right personnel moves this offseason and hire the right coach.
Dan Hope is an NFL/NFL Draft Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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