NFL Playoff Picture 2015: Analyzing Wild Card Odds and Postseason Scenarios

The current perception of the NFL playoffs has portrayed the four first-round bye squads as the clear-cut Super Bowl favorites.  It's rare that no one picks a squad from the Wild Card Round to advance far, but at the moment, a four-team hegemony rules the league.

Of course, history suggests that will change, as three of the past four Super Bowl champions have come from the Wild Card Round.  Moreover, at least one team with a first-round bye has lost its opening playoff game every year since 2004.  Though it's not clear who will emerge as a dark-horse challenger, the odds favor the underdogs in the big picture.

Taking a look at the current playoff picture, let's analyze the spread for each Wild Card Game, per Odds Shark, while also placing the spotlight on the top sleepers and the best matchups.

Home	Away	Spread	Pick (Straight Up)
Carolina Panthers	Arizona Cardinals	CAR -6.5	Panthers
Pittsburgh Steelers	Baltimore Ravens	PIT -3	Ravens
Indianapolis Colts	Cincinnati Bengals	IND -3	Colts
Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	DAL -6.5	Cowboys

Best Wild Card Game

While the Cowboys-Lions game might present the most intriguing storylines, the matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers will recreate arguably the most intense rivalry of the past decade.  Though both meetings this year have been decided by double digits, 10 of the previous 11 meetings had been decided by one possession, including eight by three points or less.

Thus, no game possesses more promise for high late-game drama.  Pittsburgh easily had the most productive offensive skill position talent this season, finishing second overall in Football Outsiders' opponent-adjusted DVOA metric; however, despite some encouraging signs, it appears the Steelers will likely be missing immaculate all-around running back Le'Veon Bell, who accounted for 33.7 percent of their total yardage this season:

Consequently, a rivalry known for its defensive struggles could turn into a shootout.  According to Pro-Football-Reference, Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense were largely mediocre throughout the final month, averaging 5.5 yards per play, 15th in the league over that span.  But Baltimore matches up well, as its zone-blocking run scheme can take advantage of Pittsburgh's lack of agility along its front seven, while offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak's play-action bootleg concepts can scramble the Steelers' lead-footed secondary and create big plays downfield for Torrey and Steve Smith.

Even without Bell, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger should be able to keep up, as wide receiver Antonio Brown facing off against the Ravens dilapidated secondary is the biggest mismatch of the week.  Baltimore does have a strong pass rush, boasting a 7.6 percent sack percentage that ranked seventh during the regular season, per TeamRankings.com; however, look for the Steelers to call more max-protection concepts, banking that the added time and Roethlisberger's uncanny ability to extend plays will allow Brown, Martavis Bryant and Heath Miller to find holes in the Ravens' zone defenses.

The winner of this game stands out as a strong contender to emerge as this postseason's Cinderella story.  Assuming Bell could return for the later rounds, the Steelers would possess the offensive firepower to outduel any team in the league.  Meanwhile, Baltimore's combination of a strong running game and pass rush allows them to control the clock when it's at its best, keeping the likes of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady glued to the sideline.

Either team would still be an underdog to the New England Patriots or the Denver Broncos, of course, but given the championship experience on both sides, the Steelers and the Ravens are each capable of pulling off deep postseason runs.

Best Potential Divisional Game

If the picks above come to fruition (stop your snickering!), this is how the divisional round would play out:

Home	Away
New England Patriots	Baltimore Ravens
Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts
Seattle Seahawks	Carolina Panthers
Green Bay Packers	Dallas Cowboys

Of those four games, the Dallas Cowboys visiting Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers would stand out as the week's most exciting contest.  Tony Romo and Aaron Rodgers have not met since 2009, as one of the two has missed the previous two meetings between the squads.  With two of the leagues most explosive offenses and no recent history to draw upon, a Cowboys-Packers game would provide the most intrigue leading up to the contest.

The pressure would also be squarely on Romo, who has lost the only two road playoff games of his career.  Though he's had a much smaller sample size than Rodgers, the vast gulf in postseason performances between the two players is telling:

Player	Games (Rec.)	TD-INT	Cmp %	Yds/Att.	Adj. Yds/Att.	QB Rating
Romo	4 (1-3)	4-2	59.3	6.16	6.09	80.8
Rodgers	10 (6-4)	19-5	66.0	7.83	8.31	103.1

Facing a deep and rangy Packers secondary is a much tougher task than what Rodgers will get against the Cowboys.  Dallas ranked 28th in sack percentage this year, which could make for an ugly day trying to stop wide receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb through the air.  Defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli has instilled more press coverage principles than the Cowboys used to employ, but the personnel isn't talented enough to play the same aggressive concepts, as say, the Seahawks or the Patriots.

Consequently, it's difficult to envision how the Cowboys could stop Rodgers and Co. without generating turnovers.  Of course, the Green Bay quarterback has not thrown a pick at Lambeau since 2012, as his home performance has been historically impeccable:

Thus, the game would serve as a significant referendum on Romo's ability to stand toe-to-toe with the league's likely MVP.  It's an impossible situation for most quarterbacks, but there would also be no better way to expunge the unfair narrative that has developed throughout Romo's career.