Outback Bowl 2015: Stat Predictions for Stars and Pick for Auburn vs. Wisconsin
While the college football scene on New Year's Day will hone in on the semifinal games, there are several intriguing appetizers before the main events. At noon ET, the Outback Bowl in Tampa, Florida, between the Auburn Tigers and Wisconsin Badgers stands out because of its potential for fireworks on the ground, pitting Heisman finalist Melvin Gordon against Gus Malzahn's prolific spread attack.
Both squads will also enter the bowl with sour tastes in their mouths. The Tigers were once the second-ranked team in the nation but dropped three of their final four games to fall far out of the SEC West race. Meanwhile, the Badgers bounced back from a 3-2 start to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, only to suffer a 59-0 humiliation at the hands of Ohio State.
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Thus, both teams come into this game with plenty to prove before they can reestablish themselves as playoff contenders in 2015. Read on for last-minute predictions surrounding the game's outcome and top stars.
Auburn Stat Predictions
Nick Marshall, QB: 13-of-21, 175 passing yards, 85 rushing yards, 2 total TDs
Sammie Coates, WR: 4 catches, 90 yards, 1 TD
Cassanova McKinzy, LB: 10 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 FF
Despite his reputation as a scrambling quarterback in Auburn's offense, Nick Marshall has actually eclipsed the 200-yard passing mark six times this season, compared to just four times during the 2013 regular season. Nevertheless, given that Wisconsin ranks fourth in the country in terms of fewest passing yards per game allowed (164.3), don't expect Marshall to reach those heights.
However, he should still make an impact on the ground, as the Badgers haven't yet faced a quarterback with Marshall's scrambling ability this season. With 11 touchdowns on the ground, only six quarterbacks had more rushing scores than Marshall this season. As such, expect him to make his impact felt testing the gap discipline of Wisconsin's front seven.
When Marshall does go to the air, big-play threat Sammie Coates figures to represent his top target. Though D'haquille Williams leads the Tigers in receptions, Coates' 23.9 yards per catch ranks third in the country among receivers with at least 30 catches. Following a jaw-dropping 206-yard performance against Alabama, Coates has earned a reputation as one of the nation's premier receivers, even in Auburn's run-heavy scheme:
The NFL will arrive soon enough for the senior receiver, but for now, he should find success against a Badgers defense that gave up three scores of 39 or more yards against Ohio State in their last game. Coates is a bit of a boom-or-bust proposition—he's had seven games this year with fewer than 65 yards receiving—but look for him to get loose deep at least once.
Defensively, the challenge will fall upon Cassanova McKinzy and the rest of the front seven to slow down Wisconsin's prolific rushing game. McKinzy led the Tigers with 10 tackles for loss and finished second with 82 total tackles.
He's not much of a pass-rushing threat, having notched just 1.5 sacks on the year, but he could still have a playmaking impact against Wisconsin, which has fumbled 1.8 times per game this year (109th in the country). If Auburn is to have a reasonable hope of slowing down the ground game, turnovers will be a necessity.
Wisconsin Stat Predictions
Melvin Gordon, RB: 28 carries, 180 yards, 2 TD
Corey Clement, RB: 13 carries, 80 yards, 1 TD
Derek Landisch, LB: 9 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sack
It might be strange seeing two running back projections and no mention of a quarterback, but that's likely what Wisconsin's offense will boil down to. Joel Stave's 61.5 adjusted QBR would have ranked 55th in the country if he had enough attempts to qualify; however, Stave threw for under 100 yards three times in nine starts and attempted over 20 passes just twice.
Gordon is a known quantity, as the Heisman Trophy runner-up has eclipsed 120 yards in all but two games this season. Facing a Tigers defense that conceded 4.09 yards per carry during the regular season—54th in the country—Gordon should put the cherry on top of his collegiate career in his Badgers' finale.
However, the game's biggest key might be how well Gordon's wingman, sophomore Corey Clement, can assert himself. Despite a gaudy 6.4 yards per carry average on the season, Clement has received just 5.2 carries per game over the last five contests.
Much of that stems from Gordon's productivity, as he does average 7.6 yards per carry. Still, Wisconsin's best bet at winning is to keep Gordon fresh while relieving pressure off Stave's shoulders, a formula that calls for Clement to receive his share of touches.
Defensively, senior Derek Landisch accrued a whopping 15.0 tackles for loss and eight sacks, emerging as the Badgers' most disruptive playmaker. Landisch understands the importance of creating big plays against the methodical yet deadly Tigers offense:
Along with fellow linebacker Vince Biegel, Landisch will be the primary player responsible for slowing down Marshall and Cameron Artis-Payne on the ground. Look for him to make his fair share of plays in the backfield throughout the game.
Game Pick
A potential X-factor in this contest is Wisconsin's coaching change following Gary Andersen's stunning departure, as Barry Alvarez will conduct yet another comeback tour, albeit just for a single contest. Alvarez had a similar one-game tour of duty at the Rose Bowl two years ago, a game the Badgers lost. This time, Alvarez insists the prior experience will help him manage the prep period better:
Still, the continuity advantage is undeniably on Auburn's side. It's unclear what future defensive coordinator Will Muschamp had on the Tigers' game-planning, but with both defenses struggling at the end of the regular season, his potential contributions stand as another positive in Auburn's corner.
Wisconsin certainly has a strong chance if it can win in the trenches. But considering the aftershock of Andersen's departure, it's hard to imagine the Badgers pulling together quickly enough to upset a talented Tigers squad.
Pick: Auburn 40, Wisconsin 32
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