College Football Playoff 2014-15: Predictions for Top Storylines of Semifinals
Storylines abound in the inaugural College Football Playoff.
Regardless of how things got to this point—the lack of a Big 12 title game being an interesting storyline in its own right—the fact of the matter is that the teams in the big dance make for quite an interesting set of potential showdowns.
On one side is Oregon and Florida State, a showdown with plenty of quarterback prestige and cross-conference narratives that shed both defenses in questionable light.
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On the other is Ohio State and Alabama, which really writes itself as a showdown between two conferences with no love lost and a pair of head coaches with plenty of history.
The only thing left is for the games finally to arrive.
2015 College Football Playoff Schedule
| January 1, 2015 | Rose Bowl (Semifinal No. 1) | No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Florida State | 5 p.m. | ESPN | Oregon (-9) |
| January 1, 2015 | Sugar Bowl (Semifinal No. 2) | No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State | 8:30 p.m. | ESPN | Alabama (-9) |
| January 12, 2015 | College Football Playoff National Championship | Oregon/FSU winner vs. Alabama/OSU winner | 8:30 p.m. | ESPN | TBD |
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 3 p.m. ET on Dec. 27.
Marcus Mariota Wins a Quarterback Duel
By now, observers know the tale of the tape.
Florida State's Jameis Winston won the Heisman last year but has since lived on the edge. Late-game comebacks are all that litter his resume this year, although 24 touchdowns to 17 interceptions means many consider an undefeated campaign a "down" one.
It is funny how that goes, really. Mariota has a loss to his name this year but is one of the most dominant Heisman winners in history thanks to 4,452 total yards and 53 total touchdowns.
In fact, the accolades continue to pour in, as AP Top 25 illustrates:
Regardless, the two have their teams in the CFP and set for a duel.
That duel will go to Mariota, too. The Ducks signal-caller has been in pristine form in big games this year. He threw for three scores against Michigan State. He posted four total touchdowns against Stanford, four against Utah, six against Oregon State and five against Arizona—all blowout victories.
Winston shows the exact opposite in recent narrow escapes. He threw one touchdown to an interception in a four-point win over Miami (Fla.). Instead, tailback Dalvin Cook ran for 92 yards and the game-winning score with about three minutes left.
Rinse and repeat in a 24-19 win over Florida. Winston threw a pair of scores along with four interceptions while Cook carried the team with 144 rushing yards.
For a game billed as a quarterback showdown, the edge clearly goes to one side. Even worse, speculation that the Florida State defense is unlike anything Oregon has seen all year long is patently false given Mariota's strong performances against Michigan State (14th-ranked defense) and Stanford (second), not to mention his ability to torch defenses on rollouts.
Mariota and the Ducks get the nod in a matchup that goes to the better quarterback.
Alabama Runs over Ohio State
A meeting of the minds between Urban Meyer and Nick Saban is as good as it gets from a coaching standpoint.
On the field, Alabama is too much.
Saban flipped the script this year thanks to the surprise promotion of Blake Sims. The starting quarterback threw for 3,250 yards and 26 touchdowns in a performance that lifted the Crimson Tide to an average of 37.1 points per game.
The run-first label shed, now would be a good time to remind folks that few better running back tandems this side of Arkansas are better than T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry:
This is where things get a bit ugly. Cardale Jones, a third-string quarterback turned Big Ten Championship hero, is a great story. So is starting tailback Ezekiel Elliott, who rushed for 1,402 yards and 12 touchdowns.
What is lost in translation is the disparity between defenses.
Alabama ranks fourth in the nation and controls the trenches. Arkansas' elite ground game rushed for just 89 yards against the Crimson Tide defense. LSU, Mississippi State and Auburn each ran for more than 100 total yards, but combined for just one touchdown and no victories in the process.
The Crimson Tide can shut down Elliott, especially against an attack led by an inexperienced quarterback. In that same vein, the duo of Yeldon and Henry will have few issues with an Ohio State defense that excels at rushing the passer but allowed Minnesota to rush for 218 yards and three scores and Indiana to gain 281 and three.
Call it a deceptive matchup perhaps not worth all of the hype. Regardless, the eventual outcome is obvious.
Statistics and info courtesy of ESPN unless otherwise specified.
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