NFL Picks: Week 17 Against the Spread

The lump of coal arrived just ahead of the holidays for me and, just like the Eagles and Saints, it couldn't have happened at a worse time.

Yes, with it all on the line last week, I blanked. (I liken my season to that of the Browns: Slow out of the gate, a nice run in the middle and then the bottom falls out down the stretch.)

Meanwhile, bettor extraordinaire Bill Davis and his patented Davis Equation kept plugging along—including eight of his past 10 on his weekly radio-show appearance—ensuring a regular-season victory for the "pro" over the "joe."

Lessons here? It is extremely difficult to win with an overhyped rookie quarterback and equally daunting to make coin as an amateur sports gambler.

But, like a true addict, there is always reason for hope. More than anything, I hope not to embarrass myself for a second consecutive embarrassment.

Even writers have pride, you know. 

Included here are picks in favor of the aforementioned Philadelphia and New Orleans franchises because...well, I must be a glutton for punishment.

Let's see how it plays out, with lines courtesy of Sports Information Traders:

Last Week

Davis: 2 correct picks 

Glauser: Zero, zilch, nada...

Total

Davis: 17 correct picks

Glauser: 12 correct picks

Davis Pick No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs/San Diego Chargers Total: Over 42 Points

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"These two teams that are looking for a playoff spot this week. Neither team will be playing it safe and will be playing to the higher end of the variation of their offenses. What that means is more points above the mean."

Pick against the spread: "The Davis Equation has the total going over 42 points."

Glauser Pick No. 1: San Diego Chargers (+3) over Kansas City Chiefs

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For the Chargers, it’s simple: Win and they’re in. For the Chiefs, they will have to rely on some post-holiday gifts from other teams. They’ll also be relying on career backup Chase Daniel to fill in admirably for the injured Alex Smith.

Pick against the spread: Too much has to go right for Kansas City. It won’t. Give the Chargers the points and, likely, the win.

Davis Pick No. 2: New York Giants (-2.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

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"The Giants’ statistics on offense and defense have been improving while the opposite is true for the Eagles."

Pick against the spread: "The Davis equation has the New York Giants winning by more than 2.5 points."

Glauser Pick No. 2: Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) over New York Giants

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Head coach Chip Kelly adamantly stated he fully intends on playing to win what is now essentially a meaningless game against the Giants. This means playing his starters. Though it makes little sense to me, this means the Eagles will still field a more talented team, regardless of recent trends of both squads.

Pick against the spread: The Birds haven’t swept a season series against the G-Men since 2010. Expect it to happen this year, as they put a positive note to an otherwise disappointing finish.

Davis Pick No. 3: Cleveland Browns/Baltimore Ravens Total: Under 42.5 Points

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"Mathematically, both of these teams’ defenses have been above the median all season long. Additionally, with the third-string quarterback, Cleveland will have trouble scoring even one standard deviation below their mean."

Pick against the spread: "The Davis Equation has the Browns and Ravens scoring less than 42.5 points combined."

Glauser Pick No. 3: New Orleans Saints (-4) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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In a battle between two of the more disappointing teams in clearly the most depressing division in the NFL, the Bucs simply have more to lose by winning—as a loss assures them the top pick in the draft. The Saints, meanwhile, still have some pride left, plus an uber-competitive future Hall of Fame quarterback in Drew Brees.

Pick against the spread: If there’s not a "Blow It For Mariota" T-shirt in the crowd, then someone dropped the ball. The Saints will come marching out of Tampa (speaking of dropped balls) with a victory of more than four points.

Davis Pick No. 4: Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) over Carolina Panthers

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"Atlanta has been performing much better on both sides of the ball. The Panthers, surprisingly, are a statistically inferior team with Cam Newton as the starting quarterback."

Pick against the spread: "The Davis Equation has the Falcons winning by more than 3.5 points."

Glauser Pick No. 4: Oakland Raiders/Denver Broncos Total: Under 47.5 Points

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The Raiders will likely end another miserable season with a thud. The Broncos, fresh off a disastrous showing against the Bengals, still control their first-round-bye destiny with a victory. However, the former has scored 14 or fewer points in nine of their matchups while the latter has only cracked 30 once in their past six.

Pick against the spread: Nothing dazzling, but expect Denver to control the game—as well as the clock—by methodically pounding it down Oakland’s throat, thus keeping the score lower than the line suggests.

All quotes by Bill Davis obtained firsthand. 

Follow Jeff Glauser on Twitter: @Jeff_Glauser.