Cotton Bowl 2015: Examining Key Stats and Matchups for Baylor vs. Michigan State
There's a saying in the realm of combat sports that directly applies to the 2015 Cotton Bowl—styles make fights.
In this case, the collision between Baylor and Michigan State's intrigue comes from extremely contrasting styles.
In one corner, you have Baylor. The Big 12 human Lamborghini, reeling off 91.4 offensive plays per game, according to TeamRankings.com. With their flashy golden chrome helmets and high-flying offensive attack, the Bears are every Big 12 stereotype rolled into one explosive football team.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
In the other corner, you have Michigan State. The personification of every Big Ten stereotype. With a skilled offensive line, pro-style quarterback and a bell cow at running back, the Spartans prefer to bludgeon their opponents with a plodding pace that ranked 108th in plays per minute, per CFBMatrix.com.
Yet, despite the major differences in styles, both teams have been successful this season. Here's a look at the key statistics and matchups that will determine who comes out on top in this intriguing New Year's Day game.
Pace of Play: Will Michigan State Be Able to Keep Up With Baylor's Pace?
Obviously, the pace of play jumps out as a predominant storyline for this bowl matchup. Looking at the per-minute and per-game statistics, Michigan State will face a challenge that even Oregon didn't fully emulate in its regular-season matchup:
| 76.5 | Offensive Plays/Game | 91.4 | 77.1 |
| 63.9 | Defensive Plays/Game | 75.1 | 79.6 |
| 2.33 | Offensive Plays/Minute | 3.23 | 2.98 |
The good news for the Spartans is that their defense can boast their own pace-of-play ranking. Michigan State ranks third in terms of fewest plays per game. That's because Pat Narduzzi's defense has been excellent at forcing three-and-outs this season.
That being said, Narduzzi knows that the pace is something his defense needs to see in practice to be ready come Jan. 1, via Matt Charboneau of The Detroit News:
"'We've got them snapping the ball anywhere between 10 and 17 seconds on normal downs,' Narduzzi said. 'Oregon was not that fast. Oregon was in the 22s. … This is the fastest team that we've seen. Probably compared to an Indiana two years ago when we played and got surprised in that first half. Like, we didn't practice this fast. We were practicing at warp speed right now, even in individual doing drills. So our kids will be conditioned for it. That's what I think makes it.'
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Still, conditioning has to be a concern for Michigan State. Looking back all the way to its loss against Oregon, the Spartans were outscored 28-3 in the second half as the Ducks took over in a big way. Their second-half showing against Ohio State was much more encouraging, but they were still outscored, 21-16.
Jeremy Langford vs. Baylor Run Defense
It's no secret that Michigan State is going to look to get Jeremy Langford involved in the offense. The senior running back was 17th in the nation in rushing attempts this season with 249. Connor Cook is a catalyst for big plays, but Langford makes the offense tick.
As Brent Yarina of the Big Ten Network points out, Langford has had impressive consistency within the Big Ten conference:
However, Langford hasn't seen a run defense as effective as the Bears'. Baylor is allowing just 2.94 yards per carry, which means that Langford and the Spartans offensive line will need to fight for every yard they earn in the Cotton Bowl.
The talented back will have unprecedented success if he hits the century mark on the day. Baylor hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher all season.
What the Overall Metrics and Odds Say
The beauty of bowl games is that oddsmakers and analysts have the largest sample size from which to make their predictions. Here's a look at how the two teams stack up comparatively in some of the more widely known metrics and the latest odds.
| 11 | F/+ Ranking | 9 |
| 8 | Predictive Ranking | 4 |
| 14 | Power Rank | 4 |
| 11 | FPI | 7 |
| +2.5 | Line | -2.5 |
Metrics used include F/+ rankings via Football Outsiders, Predictive Ranking via TeamRankings.com, Ed Feng's Power Rank and ESPN's FPI. Odds via Odds Shark.
Looking at what the metrics have to say, there's a common theme. Baylor is favored at least by a small margin no matter how you slice the game. However, Michigan State has been one of the few strong representatives for its conference in recent bowl seasons, as Paul Myerberg notes:
Ultimately, the difference could come down to which of these teams have proven an ability to win big games. That's Baylor. While Michigan State faded in both of its opportunities to win on a national stage (losses to Ohio State and Oregon), Baylor thrived in its biggest showcases. The Bears scored 24 straight points to beat TCU, throttled Oklahoma and beat Kansas State comfortably.
That big-game experience should come in handy against a Michigan State team who is just a little shy of being a part of the upper echelon of college football teams this season.
Prediction: Baylor 38, Michigan State 28
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
