Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 17: Choosing Top Fantasy Football Locks and Flops

At the culmination of championship season, fantasy football owners are wishing for one final push as the holiday season approaches.  Unfortunately, continuing the fantasy season through Week 17 is akin to dumping coal over everyone's stockings, leaving the hardware up for grabs during the most unpredictable Sunday.

Thus, pinpointing extremes like locks and flops becomes especially difficult.  Typical stalwarts like DeMarco Murray and Rob Gronkowski aren't even locks to play full games this week, potentially leaving their owners out to dry at the worst possible moment.

Let's sort through these dilemmas, offering potential alternatives for stars with playing time concerns or poor matchups.  With the championship on the line, any dead weight or undue risks could make the difference in your entire season's worth of work.

Quarterback: Start Matt Ryan over Philip Rivers

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Even at the Georgia Dome, some might hesitate to start Matt Ryan this week, given the improvements set forth by the Carolina Panthers defense.  The Panthers have not allowed over 300 yards passing since Week 10 against Philadelphia's Mark Sanchez, who has been the only quarterback since Week 8 to score over 20 fantasy points against the Panthers defense.

Ryan himself had one of his least efficient performances of the season in Charlotte earlier this year, averaging a meager 5.96 yards per attempt while tossing just a single touchdown.  Julio Jones was uncharacteristically quiet that day, however, catching just six balls for 59 yards.  Ryan's fantasy stock has been on the upswing over the past month precisely because of Jones' surge, something that was evident last Sunday:

Carolina has since reshuffled its defensive backfield from the first Falcons game, as Josh Norman will most likely follow Jones around this week.  While the Panthers pass defense presents a much stiffer challenge than their record would suggest, one would expect Jones to win that matchup and for Ryan to consequently reap the benefits.

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Conversely, Philip Rivers must travel to Arrowhead Stadium, where the Kansas City Chiefs defense has thrived.  According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Chiefs have allowed just 4.87 yards per play at home, the seventh-best mark in the league.  

The bigger concern for Rivers is that the Chiefs' unique sub-packages, which employ three to four safeties, appear well-equipped to defend San Diego's plethora of in-breaking short and intermediate routes, staples of Mike McCoy's West Coast system.  In the first meeting, Rivers averaged a meager 6.61 yards per attempt in going 17-for-31 for 205 yards with two touchdowns and a pick in a Chargers home loss.

If Kansas City can limit the Keenan Allen-less San Diego receivers, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali will likely tee off against Rivers.  Rivers is not necessarily a poor fantasy matchup, but there is a very firm glass ceiling on his potential upside.

Running Back: Start Mark Ingram over Eddie Lacy and Lamar Miller

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Although the New Orleans Saints shockingly have nothing left to play for, Mark Ingram and the offense in general remain a fantastic fantasy play against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  Ingram in particular should thrive against a defensive front that is missing All-Pro defensive tackle Gerald McCoy.  

Ingram missed the first meeting with a broken hand, but the combination of Khiry Robinson, Pierre Thomas and Travaris Cadet combined for 43 total fantasy points, the highest single-game total Tampa has conceded to running backs all season.  Ingram has steadily devoured the rest of the committee, which should result in a big finale to what has been a breakout campaign in his contract year.

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Conversely, Lacy and Miller face two of the week's toughest matchups.  The Green Bay Packers running back is virtually unbenchable, as he has posted double-digit point totals every week since Week 6.  However, the Detroit Lions stifled him to 36 yards on 11 carries back in Week 3.  Many may see Lacy as matchup-proof, but the Lions defense against running backs could make a similar claim to that label.

Detroit ranks first in rush defense by Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, a title they have held virtually wire-to-wire this season.  The Lions have allowed 135 fewer rushing yards than the next-best run defense in Denver, and only the New York Jets have cracked 100 yards rushing against Detroit this season.  Lacy is a touchdown-or-bust proposition this week, making him a very shaky commodity.

Likewise, Miller will face a Jets defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.  Miller does have value as a receiver, but Gang Green has also allowed the second-fewest receiving yards to running backs this year.  In his first matchup against the Jets, Miller had just 66 yards on 15 touches, though he did happen to find the end zone. 

With Muhammad Wilkerson healthy and back in the lineup, it's tough to envision Miller finding any consistent running room against the New York front.  He'll have to score again to salvage his fantasy value, but with just two touchdowns in the past seven games, that's not a particularly likely proposition.

Wide Receiver: Start A.J. Green over Alshon Jeffery and Anquan Boldin

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After burning fantasy owners with a goose egg in Week 16, A.J. Green owners are understandably hesitant to return to the Cincinnati Bengals star without further assurances about his health.  However, Green at least plans to suit up in the AFC North title game against the Pittsburgh Steelers:

Owners might be a bit gun shy relying on Andy Dalton on the road in prime time, even after he handled a very capable Denver Broncos defense at Paul Brown Stadium last Monday.  

But ultimately, Pittsburgh is less equipped to handle Green than virtually any defense, as they simply don't possess the perimeter or safety speed to repress Cincy's All-Pro.  Green may not replicate his monstrous 11-catch, 224-yard performance from three weeks ago against the Steelers, but triple-digit yards and another touchdown should be the expectation.

Alshon Jeffery has done well since Brandon Marshall's season-ending rib injury, posting 150 yards and two touchdowns over the past two games, even with all the dysfunction surrounding the Chicago Bears.  However, Jeffery could draw the Minnesota Vikings' top corner Xavier Rhodes, a precocious second-year player who has legitimately been among the best corners in the league this season.  That matchup seems likely based on Rhodes' recent usage patterns:

Chicago seems likelier to experience more success attacking the Vikes with Matt Forte in the passing game, which would allow them to expose Minnesota's lack of speed at the linebacker level (particularly with Anthony Barr out for the year).  Jeffery is always a threat to score, but the yardage totals are unlikely to pile up against Rhodes.

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On the opposite end of the spectrum, finding the end zone has been a season-long problem for Anquan Boldin.  Though he leads the San Francisco 49ers with 121 targets this season, Boldin's 81 catches have gone for just four scores, a 4.9 percent scoring rate that would be his lowest since 2009.  

While the Arizona Cardinals got torched last week, the Cards have still allowed just one touchdown to opposing receivers over the past seven games.  Given the likelihood that San Francisco will have issues moving the ball against Arizona's balanced defense, Boldin looks like an extremely low-upside play, even though he'll likely receive his usual healthy number of targets.

*All points against stats based on ESPN standard scoring.