NFL Week 17 Picks: Game-by-Game Over-Under Predictions

With only eight teams cracking the 30-point plateau and a plethora of low scores across the board in Week 16, a downward trend is developing in over/under portions of NFL betting lines.

Add that to the typical nature of games with playoff implications—tough-nosed, gritty, defensive—and it makes taking the over a tougher proposition than it would be in earlier stretches of the season.

While those with both factor into games this weekend and bring some of the scores down, there are battles on tap for Week 17 sure to be offensive shootouts. As we saw in games like San Diego against San Francisco or Miami versus Minnesota last weekend, shootouts can occur out of nowhere in the NFL.

Let's make some over/under predictions for each game, with recent form and implications in mind.

Matchup	Spread (O/U)	ATS Pick	O/U Pick	Reason
Indianapolis at Tennessee	IND -7.5 (46.5)	IND	O	Charlie Whitehurst and Andrew Luck will both have success to push the over
Carolina at Atlanta	ATL -4.5 (47.5)	CAR	U	Two not-so-great defenses will show their teeth with everything on the line
Cleveland at Baltimore	BAL -10 (42.5)	CLE	U	Neither offense is hot at all right now, to say the least
Dallas at Washington	DAL -7 (49)	DAL	U	The Cowboys won't blow it open, and their defense will hang tough
Detroit at Green Bay	GB -9 (48)	GB	O	Both defenses will struggle against hot-handed quarterbacks
Jacksonville at Houston	HOU -10.5 (40.5)	JAX	O	Blake Bortles will stay firing and come close to thwarting the playoff hopefuls
San Diego at Kansas City	KC -2.5 (42)	SD	O	The better offense will rise above, meaning Philip Rivers is leaving a mark on the score
New York Jets at Miami	MIA -7 (42)	NYJ	O	The Jets lowly secondary can't stop the clicking Miami offense
Chicago at Minnesota	MIN -7 (44)	MIN	O	Teddy Bridgewater will finish 2014 in style against Chicago's hapless secondary
Buffalo at New England	NE -5 (44)	NE	U	Pats D will enter playoffs on a high note, and offense will be relaxed
Philadelphia at New York Giants	NYG -2.5 (52)	PHI	O	The Eagles offense will rack up the points while allowing the same from Eli Manning/Odell Beckham Jr
New Orleans at Tampa Bay	NO -4 (46.5)	NO	U	Drew Brees will be firing to end 2014, but the offense won't go both ways
Oakland at Denver	DEN -14.5 (47.5)	DEN	U	See below.
Arizona at San Francisco	SF -7 (36.5)	ARI	U	Two stingy defenses and two inconsistent offenses? Chalk up a low-scorer
St. Louis at Seattle	SEA -14 (41)	SEA	U	Seattle's defense has everything coming easy, and the offense will cruise in result
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh	PIT -3.5 (47.5)	PIT	O	See below.

Note: Game odds courtesy of Odds Shark, updated as of December 23

Top Over/Under Bets to Make

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5); (O/U: 47.5)

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Anything can happen in games with direct playoff implications, but this one feels rather secure.

The Cincinnati Bengals secured their spot in a fourth straight postseason with a big win over Denver Monday night, but they'll have to beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh to win the AFC North and obtain a home playoff game. It's a rematch of a Week 14 game, which Cincinnati was in the middle of before the Steelers ran away with it late.

Two defenses with certain strengths should do their part in holding up, but it will be easier said than done against two prolific offenses. Pittsburgh ranks seventh in total points per game, while the Bengals have scored 30 or more in two straight games.

Ben Roethlisberger and Andy Dalton should both make some throws, but the stout running game on each offense will result in an offensive showcase. Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard couldn't be stopped by the Broncos in Week 16, and Le'Veon Bell has been torching run defenses all season.

When the Steelers and Bengals faced off a few weeks ago, they had no trouble topping 48 points—which is what they need to make the over. In fact, Pittsburgh scored 25 in the span of just over eight minutes in that game.

It won't blow way past the over/under line, but Pittsburgh and Cincinnati will each score into the mid-20s to make it happen.

Prediction: Steelers 28, Bengals 24

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-14.5); (O/U: 47.5)

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

The Broncos' over/under lines have been skewed for years, and it's no secret as to why.

The arrival of Peyton Manning has brought unprecedented passing numbers, but even one of the greatest quarterbacks ever is human. After ridiculous numbers over the last few seasons, Manning has only three touchdowns to six interceptions in his last three contests.

He'll have no trouble bouncing back against a Raiders team on which he threw five touchdowns earlier this season—even after they stifled him for most of the first half. But with nothing on the line for Denver other than a first-round bye and Manning nursing injury issues, the Broncos will be quick to turn it over to the second team.

Hungry to make amends for last weekend's shellacking by the Bengals, Denver's defense will stand tall and make life tough for Derek Carr. A veteran group that knows what is ahead will set a tone, leaving few points for the Raiders to score.

Yes, the Raiders beat Buffalo last week and are playing much better football down the stretch. But their performances directly after their other two wins have been telling—a 52-0 loss to St. Louis and a 31-13 loss in Kansas City.

The Broncos will make sure the third time follows suit, but not enough to touch the over/under.

Prediction: Broncos 31, Raiders 7