Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Baltimore Ravens will try to bounce back from their first loss in three games on Sunday when they host the Cleveland Browns, who will be looking to break a four-game losing streak. The Ravens fell to the Houston Texans, 25-13, last week despite being 6.5-point road favorites, while the Browns will likely need to rely on a new quarterback in hopes of ending their skid.

Point spread: Ravens opened as 9.5-point favorites; the total was 42.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.2-16.4 Ravens

Why the Browns can cover the spread

Cleveland is already playing for next year and has gone 4-1 against the spread in its last five games as a road underdog. The Browns covered last week’s 17-13 loss to the Carolina Panthers as six-point road dogs despite losing rookie quarterback Johnny Manziel to a hamstring injury.

With Manziel and former starter Brian Hoyer (shoulder) battling injuries, they may need to start either rookie Connor Shaw or Tyler Thigpen, who Cleveland announced it had signed on Tuesday.

That could actually work in Cleveland’s favor since Baltimore will not know who to prepare for after holding Hoyer in check the last time the teams met, resulting in a 23-21 victory for the Ravens as 1.5-point road favorites back in Week 3.

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

Baltimore is in a must-win situation and can make the playoffs with a victory and loss by the San Diego Chargers to the Kansas City Chiefs. The Ravens have failed to cover the spread in three of their past four games, but they have gone 4-2 ATS in their previous six games as home favorites. They have also won 12 of the last 13 meetings with the Browns, going 9-4 vs. the line.

Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco really struggled last Sunday at Houston, but he has performed much better at home with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions compared to 13 and nine on the road.

Smart Pick

Cleveland is not going to win this game, so the question is whether or not Baltimore will cover as a favorite of more than a touchdown. The Ravens are 3-1 ATS in their past four games as home favorites of seven points or more, winning 19 in a row SU. Meanwhile, the Browns have lost 15 straight as road underdogs of seven points or more, going 6-7-2 versus the line, including 2-4 in their last six.

Five of the previous six meetings have been decided by eight points or less, so picking a side here with such a big spread is tough. Instead, look at the total, with the under going 8-2-1 in the past 11 games between the teams and 10-4 in Baltimore’s last 14 as a home favorite.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road.
• Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in its last six games at home.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.