NFL Week 17 Picks: Latest Predictions for Updated Spreads

The playoffs don't begin in January for many NFL teams; rather, they unofficially begin in Week 17.

Whether it's a club needing a win plus considerable help to get in or teams that have the opportunity to notch first-round byes, the do-or-die implications aren't lost in the season's final regular-season weekend. Along with a trio of games that will decide division winners, some other contests carry significant implications.

It's a week of the season unlike any other, with certain teams fighting for it all and others with one eye toward the postseason or the offseason. That makes for some interesting spreads across the slate, but you've got to know which way to lean.

Here's some advice as we break down Week 17 picks from across the slate.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Indianapolis at Tennessee	IND -7.5	Colts	Andrew Luck will bounce back and get right for the playoffs
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons	ATL -4.5	Panthers	In a playoff environment, Cam Newton will attack a lowly Falcons secondary
Cleveland at Baltimore	BAL -10	Browns	The Browns defense will show up to keep its loss under the spread
Dallas at Washington	DAL -7	Cowboys	Dallas won't rest its starters looking for momentum entering playoffs
Detroit at Green Bay	GB -9	Packers	See analysis below.
Jacksonville at Houston	HOU -10.5	Jaguars	Jags will bring the fight looking for second straight win, and Houston won't be able to pull away
San Diego at Kansas City	KC -2.5	Chargers	Philip Rivers will play unstoppable football late to put away KC's postseason hopes
New York Jets at Miami	MIA -7	Jets	Rex Ryan's squad will fight for him yet again in what's likely his last game in New York
Chicago at Minnesota	MIN -7	Vikings	An underrated Minnesota D will set a dominating tone entering 2015 vs. hapless Chicago
Buffalo at New England	NE -5	Patriots	The Pats no longer have anything to play for—but neither does Buffalo. NE's second-teamers win
Philadelphia at New York Giants	NYG -2.5	Eagles	Chip Kelly won't let his recently eliminated Eagles into 2015 without a sound beating of a division foe
New Orleans at Tampa Bay	NO -4	Saints	Like Philly, the Saints will galvanize to beat an overmatched team despite having nothing much to play for
Oakland at Denver	DEN -14.5	Broncos	Peyton Manning and Co. will put this one away early, wrapping up a first-round bye
Arizona at San Francisco	SF -7	Cardinals	Arizona's offense will find things much easier when it isn't going up against the Legion of Boom
St. Louis at Seattle	SEA -14	Seahawks	Seattle's defense will hold the Rams to below 10 points in their season finale
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh	PIT -3.5	Steelers	See analysis below.

Note: Odds courtesy of Odds Shark, last updated December 23

Analyzing Close Calls in Week 17

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-9)

It's not often you see an 11-4 team as a nine-point underdog, but it's also not often you see one team struggle as much in a stadium as the Lions do at Lambeau Field.

As if there aren't big enough implications in Sunday's meeting between Detroit and Green Bay, which will decide the NFC North champion and first-round bye winner, there's an added wrinkle of history for the Lions.

They haven't beaten the Packers in Lambeau since 1991, and the betting action isn't much prettier, as Brian Carriveau pointed out, via Odds Shark:

The Lions did beat the Packers the last time out, but that was in Week 3—which feels like ages ago, especially for Green Bay. Detroit has allowed more than 24 points only once this season, but it was in a situation similar to Week 17—on the road, against a Super Bowl-caliber team in New England. 

Nobody has been able to stop Aaron Rodgers and crew when the passing game is clicking, and all the Lions can do is stuff the run and hope their coverage on the outside holds up. It will be a defensive system capable of generating stops, but will also be reliant on an off night from Rodgers—not likely in such a big game.

If it's a one-possession game down the stretch, the Packers could be in trouble with a paper-thin defense Matthew Stafford could exploit. But as Rodgers has done time and time again, he'll put up just enough points to make that irrelevant. 

Prediction: Packers 30, Lions 20

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

The Bengals got a considerable monkey off their back in Week 16 but have the chance to make an even bigger splash in the season's final weekend against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Known all too much for its prime-time and playoff struggles since Andy Dalton took over at quarterback, Cincinnati toppled the Denver Broncos at home on Monday Night Football to clinch a postseason spot. But with a win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh, the Bengals will also win the division.

There's no doubt Dalton and Co. will have their work cut out for them. Along with the short week, the Bengals face a Steelers team against which they have allowed fourth-quarter leads to turn into blowouts on two straight occasions. 

The Bengals could also be without A.J. Green, or with a hampered one, after his injury Monday, as NFL Network's Albert Breer reported:

Cincinnati roughed up Denver en route to an early lead, but it's worth noting that the Bengals offense sputtered with an ailing Green as the Broncos made a comeback. Pittsburgh will be able to hold up better between the tackles, and Green—even if he plays—won't be at his usual level.

The Bengals defense is flying around and could make life tough for Ben Roethlisberger, but the Steelers can simplify things with Le'Veon Bell and smart passing plays to avoid turnovers. 

Dalton and the Bengals will get the chance to prove their playoff worth, but it won't be in a home game.

Prediction: Steelers 28, Bengals 24